Possible expansion of BRICS in the Middle East

THABET Amzhad M.s Postgraduate Student, Department of International Relations and World Politics, St. Petersburg State University. 187000, Russia, Saint Petersburg, Korablestroiteley str., 20 am.83th@gmail.com

introduction

The author focuses on discussing the future expansion of BRICS in the Middle East, China's role in international crises, mediation in reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the restoration of bilateral relations between them in preparation for their accession to the BRICS, as well as the economic, political and military aspects of this step in the Middle East region and how it it will attract joining. The accession of Saudi Arabia and Iran will also attract oil and renewable energy producing countries such as Algeria and Egypt in the future. This will help the BRICS to get rid of the pressure of the United States of America and accelerate the pace of growth and development in these countries in order to serve the stability and social well-being of these countries.

The issue of the expansion of BRICS in the Middle East and its future impact on the international role of the organization and its ability to achieve its goals in achieving more equitable global governance away from the hegemony of one pole is being considered.

The study concludes that the expansion of BRICS membership by including large and influential countries of the Middle East as the first stage is a strategic necessity, especially after the Russian military operation in Ukraine and the excessive use by the United States of America of the financial system to besiege and sanction countries.

The geographical expansion of the Middle East region between the three continents of Asia, Africa and Europe as an intermediate center of stations and routes of world trade, as well as the region's wealth of natural resources, will serve as an impetus for the movement of growth, development and integration. among the BRICS countries.The inclusion of large energy-producing countries in the Middle East is a necessity to change the global financial system based on the dollar, which drew its strength from the connection with oil after the so-called Nixon shock on August 13, 1971. And also to help cope with the transition to a global system that does not depend on the US dollar, and reduce possible losses.

The creation of BRICS and the beginning of its activities

BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, five emerging economies that formed a political and economic association in 2009.

The idea of BRICS was first proposed by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill in 2001, who identified these five countries as the largest emerging markets and predicted that by 2050 they will become dominant in the global economy. Representatives of the countries met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

BRICS became an official organization in 2009, and its first summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Since then, the group has held annual summits in various participating countries, where leaders discuss various economic and political issues, including international trade, finance and security ^{[1, pp.13-17]}.

One of the main goals of the BRICS is to expand economic cooperation between its members. The organization has established a New Development Bank (NDB), which provides financing for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in participating countries and other developing countries. The bank's initial capital was $50 billion, and it has already financed several projects, including renewable energy sources and transport infrastructure.

BRICS also promotes trade and investment among its members. The Group has set a goal to increase intra-BRICS trade to $500 billion by 2020 and has launched several trade promotion initiatives, including the BRICS Trade Fair and the BRICS Business Council.

BRICS is also actively advocating for a more equitable and inclusive system of global governance. The Group called for reform of international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to give developing countries greater influence over global economic decision-making^[2].

Overall, the BRICS represents an important shift in the global economic order.

The reasons why BRICS seeks to join new countries to the organization:

First, the addition of new members has the potential to increase the economic and political influence of the organization. For example, if a large and rapidly developing country like Saudi Arabia joined the organization, it could significantly increase the organization's economic and political influence.

Secondly, the expansion of membership can contribute to greater regional and global economic integration and cooperation. By including more countries from different regions, BRICS can help create a more inclusive and balanced global economic system that takes into account the needs and interests of a wider range of countries.

Third, new members can bring new ideas and perspectives to the organization and contribute to innovation and progress in achieving its goals. For example, if a country with extensive experience in the field of renewable energy joined us, it could help advance the organization's efforts to promote sustainable development and reduce carbon emissions^[3].

However, it is also important to note that expanding membership can create some challenges, such as the need to ensure that new members share the same values and goals as existing members, as well as the possibility of increasing internal divisions and conflicts. Thus, any decision to expand membership in the BRICS organization should be carefully considered and evaluated taking into account its potential benefits and risks.

the countries that are part of the BRICS

Saudi Arabia and Iran are among the countries whose accession to BRICS plus will be discussed at the summit scheduled for August 2023 in South Africa. Among other countries, Egypt has received the approval of the Development Bank to join the organization, as well as the approval of the Egyptian parliament, as well as other countries such as Algeria, the Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, especially since a number of these countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, are already dialogue partners in the Shanghai Organization^[4].

This demand for an increase in the number of BRICS member states encourages us to analyze the strategic aspects of expanding the membership of this organization in the Middle East, presenting the geopolitical, geo-economic and military aspects of the BRICS organization in general and its members in particular.

The geopolitical side

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States sought to establish its control over the world, especially over countries that it considered unfriendly.

This is done by supporting influential individuals, figures and organizations in these countries who support American ideas and vision.

Supporting the opposition in carrying out color revolutions, undermining stability within countries and imposing sanctions under the pretext of protecting freedoms and human rights, such as the Magnitsky Act of 2009, issued against Russia

Similarly, the dominance of the United States in relation to United Nations resolutions and its insistence on sending the American army to invade Iraq in 2003, despite Russia's veto power in the Security Council against this invasion.

Here we find that the BRICS organization is a political and existential necessity for the founding members of the organization, who seek to increase the number of countries, create greater expansion and a stronger bloc against the hegemony of the United States and open horizons for a multipolar, more balanced and just world ^[5].

The expansion of the BRICS in the Middle East and the admission of such major countries as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Algeria and the UAE to it is a very important strategic step at the political level.Saudi Arabia is a leading country in the region, a strategic ally of the United States, especially after the signing of the petrodollar agreement in 1974^{[6, pp.69-72]} and is a very influential member in OPEC, the League of Arab States and the Organization of the Islamic World. Many Arab countries of the Persian Gulf are following in the footsteps of Saudi Arabia. in building its foreign policy with the United States, and the entry of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into the BRICS organization will open the doors for all Gulf countries to join the BRICS

this will give the BRICS a very large political force in front of the hegemony of the United States of America, whose influence in the Middle East will rapidly decrease,

This can be seen from the visit of the Chinese president to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2022. During this visit, he met with the heads of 20 Arab countries at a joint summit in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, despite American pressure on Arab countries. to prevent this meeting^[7].

The persistence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Arab countries is a clear signal of the independence of political will and defiance of American dictate, which is a rare scene at the global level, and this is not only China's initial success in attracting a strategic ally of the United States, but also the overall success of such steps is a strategic success of the BRICS organization in the Middle East.

The regional aspect of reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Iran's accession to the BRICS countries will contribute to the restoration of bilateral relations with many Arab countries and will support political stability in the region, as well as ensure the continuation of reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was mediated by China. bilateral relations between Iran and the rest of the Persian Gulf countries, especially the UAE. This will have a positive impact on other countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, as these countries are the scene of conflict and influence between Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

There are also many forces and armed organizations that follow Iran in these countries, and here we find that reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is in favor of other countries in the region, and this gives greater political power to the BRICS organization in the Middle East, and the opportunity in the future will help bring about rapprochement and political stability in these countries, absent for decades due to the hegemony of the United States of America

accession of other countries

Egypt and Algeria are two large countries and influential members of the Arab League, as well as the Organization of African Unity, and they have influence on many regional issues, such as the case of Palestinian reconciliation, the case of the conflict between Palestine and Israel and the dossier on conflicts in Libya, Sudan and Somalia, in addition, Egypt initiated and sponsored The Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum, which was established on January 30, 2004 and holds its ministerial meetings at the League of Arab States in Cairo. He also opened the Forum of Russian-Arab Cooperation in Cairo in December 2009, as this forum coordinates positions on international issues and strengthens bilateral relations^[8].

Although the accession of Algeria and Egypt to the BRICS organization has not yet been effective in the organization, however, the dynamics of ministerial meetings and periodic ministerial delegations with the founding countries, as well as the consistency and consensus of positions on many international issues are clear evidence of the approaching accession of these countries to the BRICS, which is a strategic shift. The Middle East region has always been subject to the vision of the United States of America, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union and China's policy of political neutrality and interest only in economic affairs, which led to the monopolization of the region by the United States, so he ruled the region, fabricating and fueling conflicts in accordance with the policy of "divide and rule" and the theory of creative chaos by Condoleezza Rice, and also, the division of countries into friendly states and rogue states^[9].

Then such heads of state as (Yasser Arafat, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi) were killed, and the infrastructure and armies of some countries in the region were destroyed, as happened with the Palestinian Authority in 2001, Iraq in 2003, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, In addition, US President Biden named Egyptian President Abdel Fattah As-Sisi is a dictator who will not deal with him and will stop helping Egypt, and also called Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a murderer who will be tried and make Saudi Arabia a rogue state^[10].

The United States supported the events known as the Arab Spring In the Middle East, where radical Islamic movements rose and terrorist organizations became very active with the sole purpose of preventing the growth of Chinese and Russian influence in the Middle East, as well as an attempt to export this chaos to other countries.

BRICS, as a new structure uniting and coordinating the joint efforts of the participating states, is necessary to mitigate the effects of pressure exerted by the United States, and the accession of large and influential countries of the Middle East can become an important strategic addition, ensuring the reduction of US influence and strengthening political stability in the Middle East region, as well as opening new horizons for cooperation relations between the countries the region.

Reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran under Chinese auspices is a political option that is completely far from the vision of the United States, which relies on the policy of imposing sanctions on countries, as well as on countries that cooperate with fined countries, such as sanctions imposed on Iraq, Sudan, Iran.Also the Caesar Act issued by the United States against Syria^[11].

Therefore, the accession of large countries of the Middle East to the BRICS will eliminate the bilateral American distribution of countries of the world, friendly countries and other outcasts, and there will be a large margin for countries to achieve their interests in various spheres with different powers. In the future, to increase the explicit flows between them and reduce dependence on the superpower in developing its policies.

This step will also facilitate the ease of uniting views on issues presented at the UN and increase the voting bloc for the BRICS point of view.Thus, in the future, the BRICS organization may become a parallel UN entity.

The economic aspect of joining the BRICS of new participants from the Middle East

The countries of the Middle East are a strategic necessity for the BRICS organization to create a global financial system free from the domination of the Western financial system and the US dollar.

After the inability of the United States to provide a gold coating that preserves the value of the dollar as a world currency for circulation in accordance with the Burton Woods Agreement in July 1944 ^{[12, pp.26-29]}, US President Nixon was able to convince King Faisal of Saudi Arabia to link the sale of oil to the US dollar in the so-called petrodollar on August 15, 1971, because Saudi Arabia has a lot of influence in OPEC

Since then, the US dollar has become dependent in its strength on its circulation in the purchase and sale of oil, and thus the global demand for the dollar as a means of buying energy has increased, and the United States has become very free to print in large quantities. This has also increased the demand for investments in U.S. Treasury bills, and this has contributed to the dominance of the U.S. banking system and its impact on the economies of countries.

However, the dominance of the dollar and the Western financial system may gradually weaken if the BRICS organization manages to trade energy, goods and services between its members in other local currencies or in a single currency that will be agreed upon among the members of the community.

However, this step will remain incomplete and ineffective unless major oil and energy producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and other Persian Gulf countries with reserves of more than 55% of the world's energy reserves join the organization.

The goals of each of the BRICS countries and Saudi Arabia in promoting economic growth and development and combating economic downturn correspond to the "Vision of Saudi Arabia until 2030" ^[13]. The goal of which is to transform the country into a modern and diversified economy, reduce dependence on oil exports, support the private sector and support a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship.

This will double the investment opportunities and benefit from commercial privileges.And the preferential investments that BRICS member states can receive, the Middle East region, especially the Persian Gulf, is a region of global investment attraction, especially after the freezing of assets of Russian companies and even individuals by arbitrary Western financial regimes after the military operation in Ukraine without discrimination, and this makes the expansion of BRICS in the Middle East an important strategic step in the economic sphere.

Algeria is an oil-producing country and seeks to increase natural gas production, and this trend is in line with the BRICS vision of reducing global warming and carbon emissions and switching to clean energy, Algeria is the destination of the European Union, especially France, to meet energy needs, and it seeks to double its national product and diversify its economy, and its accession to the BRICS it will be a significant addition.

Egypt heads the Eastern Mediterranean Organization (EMGF) for the extraction and liquefaction of natural gas and has the largest natural gas reserves in the region after the discovery of the Zor basin on the Mediterranean coast. the Clean Energy Center in 2045 ^[14].

Expanding BRICS membership to include central Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Algeria is not only a strategic step, but also a necessity if BRICS is serious about advancing development and growth and strengthening its economy through strong and promising partnerships.

China is seeking to expand its investment base into new emerging markets, especially the Middle East, to mitigate the shock of the cancellation of its trade concessions.

- The World Bank uses the standard indicator of gross national income per capita to classify the world's economies into four income categories: Countries whose gross national income per capita exceeds $13,205 are developed countries.

It is known that China is one of the largest founding countries of the BRICS organization and the owner of one of the largest economies in the world, but China is still classified as a developing country, since its gross domestic product increased from less than $ 150 billion in the eighties of the last century to more than $18.5 trillion in 2022

Thus, according to these statistics, the per capita share in China has increased to about 12,733 US dollars^[15], which means that China is a developing country according to World Bank standards, and China still adheres to this classification.

However, the United States of America is considering a draft resolution to change this classification in order to deprive China of trade privileges, export conditions, customs duty levels, as well as grants, loans and financial flows that are in China's interests from the World Bank and the World Trade Organization or in a few years as a result of increased Chinese GDP growth.

Thus, expansion into the Middle East region will be a strategic necessity to mitigate the effects of dependence on the Western economic system led by the United States of America. Since Egypt covers the Chinese global industrial zone near the Suez Canal, as well as the Russian global industrial zone^[16], this reduces the cost for goods and services and facilitates access to neighboring African countries as a promising market in the future, as well as provides easy access for goods and services, especially Russian ones, to the European market. Despite the European and American boycott and sanctions against Russia, which intensified after the military operation in Ukraine, Egypt has excellent relations with the African continent, as well as with European countries, and its favorable geographical location will allow it to benefit from the added value and services provided to Russian and Chinese goods and products produced on its territory. All sides will benefit from this, especially Egypt, Russia and China, and the BRICS as a whole.

The relationship between the idea of a new currency in the BRICS and the Middle East

BRICS strives to promote growth, development and economic cooperation to achieve a more equitable system of global governance, but this will not be achieved optimally unless the BRICS countries are freed from the dominance of the US dollar^[17], especially in the energy market. because it is the most in-demand product and has the greatest economic impact on a global level.The idea of printing a single BRICS currency and exchanging goods and energy in local currency is a step that increases in influence as the number of BRICS countries increases, especially the large oil countries of the Middle East, but this will not be enough if the capabilities and interests of the BRICS countries do not coincide.

Changing the oil pricing unit

Oil prices are calculated on the world stock exchange for British (PRINT) oil, and this price is calculated based on the Brent spot market, futures market, futures market, swaps and options market, and these markets are pegged to the US dollar.

Therefore, selling oil in local currencies is an insufficient step, for example, when China or India buy oil for Russian rubles, the value of this transaction is estimated based on a global pricing unit pegged to the dollar.

But if the BRICS have the opportunity to set their own pricing unit, then this will guarantee the elimination of US hegemony in the global energy market, and such a step requires the consent of a larger number of large energy-producing countries in order to overcome the temporary negative consequences of this step.

Thus, the expansion of the BRICS in the Middle East and the inclusion of new countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, then the oil countries of the Persian Gulf in addition to Egypt and Algeria, will create a kind of integration into the global energy market between producers and consumers and significantly mitigate the effects of changes in energy prices.

Protecting the interests of countries from the consequences of changing the oil pricing unit

This step is also related to the interest of the participating states, since changing the oil pricing unit will lead to a significant decrease in the value of the dollar, many countries of the world and the BRICS countries led by China will lose here. their investments in U.S. Treasury bonds and other assets and cash reserves in dollars.

Having more than one global energy pricing unit means that countries will have to price twice to complete their transactions, and this exposes them to losses due to exchange differences. This happened to Iraq in 2000^{[18, pp.446-449]}, when it sold oil for euros and lost $270 million as a result of changes in exchange rates.

This will make BRICS, which opens doors to new energy-producing participants like Saudi Arabia, a step in the right direction, especially given that it receives large surpluses from its national product.

The author believes that the optimal price unit must meet three conditions in order to ensure its continuity and rapid global spread as a reliable alternative to the dollar.

- The new currency has a gold coating, which means that its value is linked to gold and can be exchanged for a fixed value of gold.

- The new currency will become a pricing unit for oil and energy, as well as for the stock and bond markets linked to the BRICS Development Bank.

- the currency is supranational, that is, it is the second currency in the BRICS countries, and is a means of making intraregional transactions between countries in order to avoid the influence of any events that may occur within the BRICS country, which directly affects the strength of this currency.

Investing the surplus of the national product

The Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, which receive economic surpluses that can be channeled and invested within the BRICS countries as an alternative to buying US Treasury bonds^{[19, p.137]}, and this will provide mitigation of the consequences of such losses, as well as faster profits due to rapid capital turnover in developing economies, especially in light of commercial the preferences and privileges granted by the BRICS organization to its members, such a step, if taken deliberately, will ensure the success and dominance of the BRICS organization in the world.

The security and military dimension of the BRICS expansion in the Middle East

Military conflicts and security tensions have a significant negative impact on economic growth and the expansion of intraregional trade, and despite the great geo-economic importance of the Middle East region, it does not provide the required economic growth, the appropriate size of its capabilities and resources, which, of course, is not in the interests of the countries of this region, threatens the vision of the BRICS organization access to new markets and hinders purposeful development and economic growth.

The reconciliation that took place between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran under the auspices of China as a prelude to the two countries joining the BRICS organization had a positive and surprisingly rapid impact on the region.

This meets the collective interests of the BRICS countries, is a qualitative addition to the organization, and will also remove the justifications for the American military presence in the region, and also had a great and rapid impact on the rapprochement of other Arab countries with Iran, opening the door for Syria's return to the Arab League and reducing tensions in Lebanon.Both the withdrawal of Saudi troops from Yemen and the strengthening of the authority of the Iraqi state in areas where Iran has a degree of influence.

Both Egypt and Algeria have the strongest armies among Arab countries and Africa.

And they have extensive experience in fighting and combating terrorism and maritime piracy and ensuring the flow of maritime merchant and rescue vessels, as well as border protection.In addition to securing the northern borders of the Mediterranean Sea for the two countries, Egypt has also assumed command of the Joint Task Force (153-CTF) from the US Navy in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden^[20], and it operates its military fleet on patrols to ensure a navigational course in this The region and, consequently, the accession of Egypt and Algeria to the BRICS organization is also a qualitative and strategic addition in this important aspect.

It can be said that the countries of the Middle East are among the largest importers of weapons, and the countries of this region, especially in the last decade, have been striving to develop their weapons and maximize their military potential, but the United States of America is still exerting pressure to prevent the countries of this region from receiving advanced high-quality weapons from eastern countries.Especially Russia, where the developed Su-35 deal between Egypt and Russia was postponed under American pressure, and the accession of these countries to the BRICS Organization will reduce the volume of these pressures, because the exchange can take place through the BRICS organization, and not as separate countries, and this will increase the freedom of coordination, cooperation and trade in the military and security fields.