Scenario Methods for Assessing the Efficiency of Legal Regulation of the Socio-Economic Systems Development Processes under Uncertainty

Shul'ts Vladimir Leopol'dovich Doctor of Philosophy Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor, Department of Social Engineering, Moscow State University. 119991, Russia, Moscow, Leninskie Gory str., 1 cona01@yandex.ru Other publications by this author     Kul'ba Vladimir Vasil'evich Doctor of Technical Science Chief Researcher, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya str., 65 kulba@ipu.ru Other publications by this author     Shelkov Aleksei Borisovich PhD in Technical Science Leading Scientific Associate, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Russia, Moscow region, Moscow, ul. Trade Union, 65, office 407 abshelkov@gmail.com Other publications by this author     Chernov Igor' Viktorovich PhD in Technical Science Head of the Laboratory, V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences 117997, Russia, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya str., 65 ichernov@gmail.com Other publications by this author

Timoshenko Andrei Anatol'evich PhD in Law Head of the Department, Department of International Cooperation in the Field of Prosecutorial Activity, University of the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation 117638, Russia, Moscow, Azovskaya str., 2, building 1 antim1@yandex.ru Other publications by this author

Introduction

At present, the complexity of solving the problems of regulatory regulation of the socio-economic development of Russian society and the state has increased significantly, which is associated with an exorbitant increase in the tension of economic, informational and military-political confrontation between Russia and the Western countries consolidated on the anti-Russian platform. In fact, today Russia is facing a whole complex of critical challenges and external threats to the very existence of society and the state.

After the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, the United States and the Western countries that fully submitted to American interests imposed sanctions of unprecedented severity and scale against our country, effectively declaring an economic war of annihilation on the Russian Federation. The purpose of the confrontation imposed on Russia is the political isolation of the state, blocking the access of the Russian economy to the most important global markets of goods and services, a significant deterioration in the quality of life of Russian citizens, the maximum possible obstruction of innovative technological, military-technical and socio-economic development.

The current foreign policy situation and the obvious negative trends of its possible development require the development of comprehensive measures and mechanisms of a systemic nature to improve the effectiveness of legislative regulation of public relations in the new realities, as well as countering various external and internal threats to the security of the individual, society and the state.

Today, the Russian Federation faces a number of urgent tasks, both operational and long-term, aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of the country, taking into account fundamentally new external threats and restrictions.

First of all, it is necessary to prevent the uncontrolled development of crisis phenomena related to large-scale external sanctions pressure in the social, economic and financial spheres. At the same time, the urgency of solving the complex of strategic problems of the structural transformation of the national economy and the system of state development management, which have become critically important in the new conditions, is sharply increasing today.

In this regard, the problem of increasing the effectiveness of regulatory and legal support for the processes of developing and implementing an updated strategy for the development of the state and society in new extremely unfavorable conditions is currently particularly acute, the main objectives of which are:

· ensuring the guaranteed security of the individual, society and the state;

· ensuring social stability in the country and its regions in the face of fundamentally new and extremely serious external threats;

· improving the effectiveness of regulatory and legal support for public administration processes by countering the negative socio-economic consequences of the unprecedented sanctions policy of Western countries:

· legal support for large-scale structural restructuring of the national economy in the new reality.

A significant increase in the complexity of the tasks of improving the effectiveness of legislative regulation processes, the development of legal norms, as well as methods and mechanisms for assessing the quality and effectiveness of legislative acts in the current situation is associated with a number of objective reasons, the key of which are:

· the scale of the tasks facing Russian society and the state to overcome the crisis phenomena that have arisen as a result of the anti-Russian policy of Western countries;

· the need for prompt and adequate response to emerging socio-economic problems of the development of society and the state;

· the need to consolidate and unite society in order to overcome the problems that have arisen, as well as to organize an effective counteraction to the information aggression of Russia's geopolitical opponents aimed at its destruction;

· the critical importance of avoiding erroneous (primarily strategic) regulatory decisions in the process of adapting the national socio-economic system to new, largely extraordinary conditions;

· extremely high level of uncertainty in assessing the results of the destructive impact of Western sanctions policies on the Russian economy;

· a high level of risks in the preparation of decisions on changes in Russia's domestic economic policy, determined by the difficult-to-predict nature of the development of the situation in the socio-political, economic and social spheres as a whole;

· the practical inability to foresee in advance and reliably the possible (and above all – negative) consequences of the ongoing changes in Russian society and the state, as well as in world politics.

All this ultimately leads to a significant increase in requirements for both the quality of law-making and the effectiveness of law enforcement, especially in terms of the practical implementation of the requirements and regulations of legislative acts that have a direct impact on the processes of socio-economic development of the country.

From the point of view of the goals and objectives of public and state development management , the effectiveness of legal regulation mechanisms in modern conditions is largely determined by the quality of solving the following tasks:

· diagnosis, analysis, ranking according to the degree of importance of problems requiring regulatory regulation;

· advanced evaluation of the effectiveness of draft legal acts in order to resolve the identified problems;

· assessment of the actual effectiveness of legal acts, as well as identification and analysis of shortcomings in the process of their practical action based on the results of monitoring of law enforcement practice.

The solution of most of the problems and tasks listed above is possible using scenario analysis and modeling methods based on a program-target approach, the results of which provide an opportunity to reduce uncertainty and take into account the totality of external and internal threats to achieving the goals by assessing the most likely and appropriate directions for the development of dynamic processes in the studied segments characterized by complex spatial and administrative-managerial the organization of socio-economic systems, their stability and other desirable and undesirable properties according to information about their structural features ^[1,2].

1. A targeted approach to evaluating the effectiveness of legislative acts

A particular difficulty in effectively solving the problems of improving the system of legislative regulation lies in the fact that the processes of lawmaking in the field of regulating the processes of managing the development of socio-economic systems (SES) should be based on the results of an in-depth analysis of the nature and dynamics of the processes of social, economic, scientific and technological development of Russia. At the same time, in the process of legislative activity, it is necessary to be able to diagnose emerging problems in a timely manner, identify and anticipate alternative ways of developing problematic situations, and, most importantly, assess both positive and possible negative consequences of implementing decisions in the field of development and transformation of law. As a consequence, evaluating the effectiveness of both newly developed and time-appropriate legislative acts and established legal norms, including those adapted to new conditions, is an extremely complex complex multidisciplinary problem ^[3].

Firstly, the direct impact of regulatory processes on the development of public relations is extremely difficult to isolate and, accordingly, analyze, especially in conditions of negative (and currently aggressive and destructive) influence of the external environment. The complexity of the analysis of the processes of development of socio-economic systems is objectively determined by the fact that, from the point of view of management, SES are multiparametric weakly structured systems characterized by a large number of objects and the complexity of their interrelations (interdependencies), an extremely wide range of indicators describing the processes of their development, a high level of uncertainty and "information blurriness", as well as a significant inertia of reaction to the decisions taken decisions on improving the processes of legislative regulation and law enforcement ^[4].

Secondly, in practice, a reliable statistical assessment of the effectiveness of legislative norms and law enforcement processes is possible only over a sufficiently long time horizon, since only with this approach it is possible to conduct a full-fledged analysis of their impact on the development of public relations, as well as possible negative consequences of their implementation.

Thirdly, the difficulties in solving the problem under consideration are significantly increasing due to the need for a significant change (transformation) of the structure, composition and content of legal instruments to ensure the progressive development of the country and the security of the individual, society and the state under sanctions, the lack of experience in solving similar problems on the scale of the national economy, as well as the practical possibility of a comprehensive solution to a significant part of the emerging problems, especially in the field of ensuring import independence and strict restrictions on the processes of interaction (including mutual settlements) with external suppliers and consumers.

The assessment of the quality of legislative regulation should be based on a set (system) of interrelated indicators and performance criteria, the objectively justified formation of which is quite complex and at the same time an extremely important task, since determining their composition and methods of calculating values fundamentally allows you to measure effectiveness (the degree of achievement of the desired results) and efficiency (the ratio between the results achieved and costs, resources spent, etc.) the application of legislative norms at various stages of the implementation of legal regulation processes, i.e. to assess to what extent the results obtained ensure the development of society and the state in the necessary direction. At the same time, it is possible to distinguish an a priori (or anticipatory, predictive) assessment of the effectiveness of legislative norms, on the basis of which a list of problems requiring legislative regulation is determined and the quality of the results of law-making processes is assessed, and a posteriori (actual) effectiveness, determined on the basis of a monitoring assessment of the quality of their implementation.

Currently, various approaches have been developed to assess the effectiveness of the legal norms being developed, which cover an extremely wide variety of indicators and criteria. Figure 1 presents a generalized classification of various approaches and criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of legal norms ^[5-15].

Fig. 1. Classification of assessments of legal norms

It should be noted that the approach to determining the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement based on a plurality of criteria is extremely difficult to implement in practice (especially on the basis of accurate methods and models of analysis), since to assess the effectiveness of both legislative norms and law enforcement processes, it is necessary to form a wide variety of hard-to-define and heterogeneous parameters characterized by a complex system of multidimensional structural and analytical relationships and interdependencies, which, moreover, are not always obvious. Moreover, in the subject area under consideration, it is not always possible to operate with quantitative indicators and indicators when assessing the effectiveness of regulatory legal acts, since most of them are exclusively qualitative in nature. Reliable estimation of the values of these parameters is also complicated by the practical need to operate with incomplete and often not always accurate and timely source information.

Currently, in an extremely difficult situation faced by our country, at the first stage of solving the tasks of overcoming the crisis phenomena in the economy and social sphere, the development of legislation is mainly on the path of priority solutions to the most acute problems, which is why the legal norms being developed have a pronounced target orientation for specific and fairly clearly defined results. At the same time, the role and importance of the target component of legislative regulation and regulatory support for the transformation of the economy over a long time horizon will only increase. At the same time, it should be clearly understood that currently, not in all cases, the goals of legislative regulation are clearly indicated in the documents accompanying the adoption of draft laws (explanatory notes, certificates on amendments to other legislative acts).

In this situation, in order to analyze the effectiveness of the regulatory and legal regulation of the socio-economic development of the country, it seems reasonable to use efficiency criteria and evaluation mechanisms that primarily reflect the degree of achievement of the goals set in the process of developing legal norms, including on the basis of their comparison with the actual results obtained, as well as possible negative consequences. The advantages of this approach to the selection of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory legal acts in the subject area under consideration are also justified by the results of long-term and multilateral studies of broader problems of improving the effectiveness of legal regulation of public and state development, which began in the 70s of the last century ^{[5, 7-8, 16-23]}

At its core, the criterion of effectiveness is an indicator that determines the nature and effectiveness of the process of achieving the goal. The extreme value of this indicator characterizes the maximum possible efficiency of the process of achieving the goal (if possible, expressed in certain units of measurement or with the help of expert assessments of qualitative indicators).

By analogy with the classification accepted in the theory of organizational management, two main types of performance criteria can be distinguished ^[24].

The effectiveness criterion of the first type reflects the degree of achievement of the main goal. Since legal regulation is one of the strategic mechanisms for managing the development of society and the state, public relations can be considered as an object of management (a managed system, the development of which is regulated by the management system), while its state theoretically (with a high degree of abstraction) can be described by a certain set of values of quantitative and qualitative parameters, and the latter, for example, can be present in evaluation scales.

Thus, if the goal is set by a set of parameter values, then it is displayed as a point in the state space of the control object. Similarly, you can display the current state of the control object. Since the goal of the development of the system under study is to achieve a certain state, the efficiency criterion of the first type is an assessment of the "distance" between the achieved position of the image point and the target point in the state space of the control object.

The criterion of the second type allows us to evaluate and compare different trajectories of the control object's movement towards the goal, i.e., in fact, to determine how effectively the goals are achieved, what are the costs of resources of various types and various kinds of costs in the process of achieving them.

In practice, the so-called compromise efficiency criterion is often used, which allows you to simultaneously evaluate both the parameters of the path and the degree of achievement of the goal. A necessary condition for using the compromise criterion is the practical possibility of measuring (at least in comparable qualitative scales) the effectiveness of the path and the degree of achievement of the goal.

Its effect is most clearly noticeable when analyzing the effectiveness of the application of certain sets of legislative acts in conjunction with the implementation of measures to financially support individual state institutions. Here, it is worth mentioning the Federal target Program "Development of the judicial system of Russia for 2013-2024", approved by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated December 27, 2012 No. 1406.

2. Scenario analysis as a tool for anticipating the effectiveness of draft laws in conditions of uncertainty

The high quality of legislative norms and legal regulation processes in general are a prerequisite for the effective solution of complex strategic and tactical tasks of social and state development. In this regard, it is extremely important in the process of law-making to rely on the results of a multilateral advanced analysis of trends and dynamics of the development of the studied problem situations, including providing an opportunity to evaluate alternative options for countering negative processes and phenomena from the point of view of the goals and objectives of state development.

The complexity of solving the problems of increasing the effectiveness of legislative regulation of the processes of socio-economic development of the country lies in the fact that in modern conditions of acute and large-scale political and economic confrontation between the Russian Federation and Western countries consolidated around the geopolitical interests of the United States, the need for structural changes in the national economy and the management system of its development increases. Regulatory and legal support for this structural transformation should be carried out taking into account the difficult-to-predict influence of internal and external economic, social, political and informational factors, their aggregates, as well as the range of possible consequences, which leads to the need to develop and implement in the practice of law-making methods of advanced analysis of the development processes of complex poorly structured socio-economic systems. The current approach to the preparation of relatively small explanatory notes based on the opinion of one or two experts is clearly insufficient.

In addition, any mistakes made in the processes of preparation, adoption and implementation of decisions in the subject area under consideration can lead not only to a decrease in the effectiveness of managing the socio-economic development of the country and, accordingly, to direct economic damage, but also to a number of other negative consequences for the state and society, including those capable of provoking extremely an undesirable public outcry that reduces the level of citizens' trust in the legislative and executive authorities ^[2].

As a rule, for the SES as an object of legislative regulation and management, there are many alternatives to development in the conditions of external (external environment) or internal (social processes, state development management system) influences. Each of them is essentially a possible variant of the system's behavior over time, but in practice, it is not always possible to single out one of them, for example, the most likely one. At the same time, it is fundamentally possible to analyze alternative ways of SES development that correspond to a certain program of legislative regulation, based on an advanced assessment of the expected effect of its implementation or likely losses (negative results) according to a given set of criteria for the effectiveness of the functioning of the system under study.

From the point of view of SES development management, the tasks of legislative regulation belong to the strategic class, i.e. the results of their solution are designed to be used over a long time horizon, which is why the processes of developing legal norms should be based on the clearest possible idea of the alternatives for the development of both society and the state, and the external environment. As a consequence, the decision-making process for improving the system of legislative regulation is complicated by the multivariance of both the initial conditions and the regulatory decisions themselves, and the alternatives developed can in many cases be effective only for a certain combination of initial conditions, the onset of which is extremely difficult to predict (if at all practically possible).

In general, the assessment of the effectiveness and adequacy of the impact of the processes of transformation of the right on the socio-economic development of the country is one of the most difficult problems of the theory and practice of lawmaking, organizational management and related scientific disciplines. The main difficulty lies in the fact that socio-economic systems are characterized primarily by a high level of uncertainty, as a result of which one of the central problems of improving the efficiency of the processes of preparation and decision-making in the field of improving the system of legislative regulation is the development of methods and mechanisms for identifying potential sources of uncertainty and qualitative (and if possible– quantitative) assessment of their potential impact on the processes of development of society and the state in order to reduce their impact on the results of law-making processes.

Currently, due to the versatility of uncertainty factors in the management of state socio-economic development, the methodology of its assessment is developing mainly in the direction of developing methods for solving rather "narrow", i.e. limited by the selected segments of the studied subject areas of applied problems. At the same time, a wide arsenal of different approaches is used to solve the problems under consideration, and various classes of mathematical models differing in methods of formalized description of properties and characteristics of uncertainty are used: classical probabilistic-statistical, stochastic, fuzzy-multiple, game, expert, deterministic, etc. ^[25].

At the same time, attempts to develop universal methods for assessing the impact of uncertainty on the effectiveness of management decisions face significant objective difficulties, overcoming which is largely possible using the methodology of scenario analysis ^[1].

In accordance with the purpose of these studies, we will consider uncertainty as the presence of a random factor, partial or complete absence, incompleteness or inaccuracy of initial information about the structure and possible states of the control object (in this case, the SES) and the external environment, as well as about the conditions for implementing regulatory decisions, as a result of which it is not possible to reliably and unambiguously evaluate the expected results and possible consequences. In fact, this definition interprets uncertainty as a lack of knowledge and a reflection of the property of the difficult-to-predict nature of the internal variability of the management object or the impact on its development (functioning) of the external environment (which is associated with the human factor, as well as the dynamics of institutional, political, social, economic, technological, natural, etc. processes and phenomena).

In strategic planning and management, there are four basic levels of uncertainty, which can be interpreted as follows ^[26,27]:

· low, practically does not affect standard procedures when developing a solution;

· medium, requiring a certain revision of a number of traditional approaches and procedures for developing and evaluating the effectiveness of solutions;

· high, requiring the development and application of fundamentally new approaches and procedures in the development of solutions;

· ultra-high, beyond the comprehension of specialists (experts) and decision makers (decision makers), and requiring additional analytical research of the subject area.

Despite the fact that many typologies of uncertainty have been developed for various purposes, there is practically no unified classification, which is due to the fact that the term itself is interpreted differently depending on the nature and specifics of the decision support tasks being solved (politics, economics, finance, law, social sphere, ecology, informatization, production, science, education, etc.) ^[28]

One of the possible approaches to the formation of an enlarged typology of uncertainty that directly affects the quality of preparation and the effectiveness of the implementation of management decisions is illustrated in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2. Classification of the main types of uncertainty

The uncertainty of knowledge about control objects, the external environment and the processes in the system under study is a key type of uncertainty that actually stems from two main sources ^[29]:

1. a subjective (epistemological) source is the result of a lack of knowledge necessary for decision-making (the level of this uncertainty can be reduced by additional research or independent acquisition of new knowledge by the LPR, involvement of experts, etc.);

2. objective (aleatory, ontological) is a consequence of the stochastic nature of the control object or the processes under study (the influence of this source of uncertainty is extremely difficult to reduce and requires the use of scenario analysis technologies to assess the effectiveness of decisions or possible damages).

A separate class is linguistic (subjective) uncertainty, which is caused by a number of objective properties of natural language (vagueness, ambiguity, contextual semantic dependence, etc.). Linguistic uncertainty is generated, on the one hand, by the multiplicity of meanings of words (concepts and relationships) language (polysemy or lexical ambiguity), on the other – ambiguity (ambiguity) of the meaning of phrases. In the field of regulatory regulation, extremely serious importance is attached to the analysis of one of the subspecies of this type of uncertainty - legal and linguistic ^[30-33], the study of which lies outside the scope of this work.

One of the ways to solve the problem of taking into account the impact of uncertainty on the effectiveness and validity of decisions in the field of improving the system of regulatory regulation is the use of technologies for scenario analysis of SES development processes, providing the possibility of a comprehensive predictive assessment of the effectiveness of legal decisions being developed, including analysis of their impact on the development of public relations) ^{[1, 34]}.

The proposed methodology provides an opportunity to reduce uncertainty and take into account the totality of external and internal threats to achieving the goals by assessing the most likely and appropriate directions for the development of dynamic processes in the studied segments characterized by complex spatial and administrative-managerial organization of socio-economic systems, their stability and other desirable and undesirable properties based on information about their structural features.

The main advantage of the methodology of scenario analysis is the possibility of forming target forecasts of the development of problematic situations in conditions of uncertainty, which allows, on the one hand, to identify a set of key risk factors and "windows" of vulnerability of social and economic spheres that carry various kinds of threats to the goals and objectives of public and state development, on the other – to provide information support to the processes preparation of legislative acts and legal norms through a proactive assessment of their quality, as well as the effectiveness of law enforcement processes.

The methodology of scenario analysis involves the study of the development processes of large-scale systems, the study of complex multidimensional problems, the synthesis and complex analysis of rational scenarios within the framework of the specified target settings for the development of such systems. Currently, a set of formalized methods has been developed for the formation of scenarios for the functioning and development of socio-economic systems, as well as the formation and research of SES models, the basis of which is a selected set of elements, a set of relationships between them and a set of certain properties of these relationships. This methodology includes ^[1]:

· formal description of identified SES models;

· description of their behavior patterns;

· description of the SES environment model (external environment);

· formalization of models for selecting elements of the scenario system;

· description of the subject area of scenario analysis;

· definition and methods of formation of elements of the scenario system and scenario space;

· methods for determining the characteristics and properties of the analyzed scenarios.

The main stages are defined, goals, a list of tasks and the main components of the scenario system obtained as a result of each stage are formed (the main stages of the scenario research process are shown in Fig. 3).

Fig.3. The main stages of the scenario research process

The methodology of predictive scenario modeling has been developed, as well as the corresponding mathematical apparatus, which represents the development of the apparatus of sign and weighted sign graphs ^[1]. The expediency and prospects of using this device are determined, firstly, by its relative mathematical simplicity, which makes it possible to overcome the well-known barrier of high computational complexity arising from the need to take into account many significant factors characterizing and influencing the development of the situations under study; secondly, low sensitivity to the accuracy of the initial data and the possibility of constructing adequate models of the process their development of a qualitative type ^{[1, 34]}.

To solve applied and practical problems of scenario analysis based on the mathematical language of modified functional sign oriented graphs, a specialized software-analytical complex of scenario modeling (SCM package) has been developed ^[35].

In order to analyze the possibility of practical use of the scenario approach to improve the quality of the results of legislative regulation, a number of graph models have been developed and studied to assess the effectiveness of managing the processes of legal transformation in the context of digitalization, ensuring social stability, combating corruption and cybercrime, countering external information aggression of Russia's geopolitical opponents ^[34,36].

The results of model studies have shown that the use of a scenario approach, in principle, allows for a comprehensive multifactorial analysis of the effectiveness of decisions in the field of legislative regulation at the stages of preparation and adoption of legal norms and to provide information support for these processes, as well as an assessment of the effectiveness of law enforcement practice.

3. The main tasks of scenario-forecast examination of draft laws

Any regulatory legal act goes through several stages of its life cycle: from the formation of targets and project development to adoption, commissioning and making changes. The decisions taken at each stage directly (albeit to varying degrees) affect the quality of the final result. An enlarged scheme of the basic stages and stages of the legislative process is presented in Fig. 4 (the task of developing and researching formalized models of the process under consideration is not set here, but the main emphasis is on analyzing the problems of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the organization of work on the bill).

Fig. 4. Stages of the legislative process

One of the most important stages of the processes of regulatory regulation of the socio-economic development of the state is goal setting and closely related processes and procedures for diagnosing and analyzing problems requiring legislative regulation. Identification of the complex of these problems is carried out on the basis of the results of solving a broader problem – a comprehensive scenario-forecast analysis of the development of the SES as a whole or their selected segments, including methods and procedures for determining the structure of interaction of processes that directly affect the nature and trends of the development of the system under study under uncertainty ^[1].

It is at this stage that the analysis of the prerequisites for the emergence and possible consequences of problematic situations is carried out, and also, ultimately, the goals of the normative legal acts to be developed are formulated. At the same time, mistakes made at this essentially initial (pre–project) stage can have a significant negative impact on the effectiveness of the legal acts being developed, and their correction can lead to significant expenditures of time and other types of resources.

Until the early 60s of the last century, setting goals and objectives in the field of management of socio-economic systems did not arise as a problem subject to scientific research. However, due to the accelerated growth of the scale and complexity of the tasks of social development and production, the art of goal-setting began to receive scientific justification in the form of a special field of system analysis, called the target approach. Goal setting is one of the most important and at the same time complex processes, since erroneous or insufficiently clear definition of the goal leads to very serious negative consequences. The complexity and difficulty of solving the problem of goal formation are largely determined by the fact that it does not lend itself to sufficiently strict formalization. The more complex the socio-economic system, the greater and more diverse the set of factors that need to be taken into account and analyzed in the process of goal-setting ^[37].

The formation of the purpose of a regulatory legal act is closely related to the processes of diagnosis (identification of problems requiring legislative regulation), analysis of the essence and alternative development options of the studied problem situations. The basis of these processes is a strategic analysis of the current social, economic, political, etc. situation in society and the state, as well as in the external environment.

At this stage, the use of scenario analysis methodology provides the solution of the following tasks:

· development of basic scenarios of socio-economic development of the state and society over a long time horizon;

· assessment of existing and possible external and internal threats to the security of the individual, society and the state;

· identification and analysis of problems and "windows" of SES vulnerability requiring legislative regulation, assessment of uncertainty and external risks;

· scenario analysis of the effectiveness of existing legal norms and law enforcement practice, identification and assessment of the complexity of existing problems, as well as the consequences of their unresolved;

· information support for the processes of forming the main goal of a regulatory legal act, assessing the significance and ranking of sub-goals of the lower levels of the hierarchy.

On the basis of the solutions obtained at this stage, the development of specific legal, organizational, managerial, financial, economic, etc. mechanisms for solving the identified problems (ways to achieve the goals) is carried out in the future.

At the project stage, the scenario approach complements the set of procedures for the comprehensive examination of the draft law (legal, legal-technical, criminological, anti-corruption, social, financial-economic, linguistic, etc.) and provides solutions to the following tasks:

· development and analysis of synergistic (reflecting the development of the situation under study without regulatory influences or under conditions of application of a limited number of them by the current legislation) and attractive (reflecting a given range of alternative ways of possible development of the situation under study with different variants of regulatory impact within the framework of the developed legal norms and enforcement mechanisms) scenarios in order to analyze the effectiveness of various approaches and ways to solve the problem, which is the subject of regulatory regulation;

· diagnostics and analysis of "windows" of vulnerability of the developed regulatory decisions in the process of achieving the set goals and assessment of the impact of uncertainty;

· assessment of possible negative socially significant consequences;

· information support for the processes of justification and selection of the best solution;

· integral assessment of the expected effectiveness of the legislative act and the effectiveness of ways to achieve the goals.

At the stage of implementation of a regulatory legal act after its approval in accordance with the procedure established by the current legislation, the use of a scenario approach allows analyzing its actual effectiveness and making a forecast assessment of the further development of the situation under study in conditions of uncertainty in order to identify "bottlenecks", as well as diagnosing new "windows" of vulnerability of the selected segments of the SES.

The results of the use of scenario-predictive expertise at the main stages of the law-making process will allow:

· to increase the validity of the system of long-term and medium-term goals for improving the system of legal regulation of the processes of socio-economic development of the country in the new realities;

· to carry out a scenario analysis of the effectiveness of alternative ways of developing the system of regulatory support for the processes of managing the socio-economic development of society and the state in conditions of uncertainty;

· to form a structured view and assess the priority of problems requiring legal regulation;

· to carry out a proactive assessment of the effectiveness of the actions of the regulatory legal acts being developed and the processes of step-by-step achievement of the set goals.

If necessary, scenario-analytical technologies similar to those listed above for anticipating the effectiveness of legal acts can be used in the implementation of a set of procedures for amending legislative acts provided for by the current legislation of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Program of scientific expert and Research Work of the State Duma of the Russian Federation.

4. Monitoring the effectiveness of regulatory regulation

Monitoring the effectiveness of legislative regulation processes is the most important source of initial information, on the basis of which a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness and effectiveness of legal acts is carried out. The ultimate goal of monitoring in the subject area under consideration is to improve the quality of lawmaking and law enforcement based on the results of a comprehensive study of objective social, economic, political, scientific, technical, etc. processes and their causal relationships, as well as analysis of the dynamics of trends in social and state development in the period under study, including the identification of emerging problems, diagnosis of "narrow places" (legal gaps in the system of regulatory regulation, incompleteness, inconsistency or complete absence of the necessary regulatory prescriptions and regulators to resolve specific problematic legal situations, low efficiency of practical application of legislation, law-making errors, etc.) ^[38-41].

Monitoring in a broad sense is understood as a set of interrelated procedures and technologies for carrying out systematic and purposeful measurements of the parameters of the processes of development of problematic situations in various spheres of public life and in the external environment, as well as their subsequent comprehensive multidisciplinary analysis ^[42]. The main functional task of monitoring in the subject area under consideration is to provide authorized bodies and structures of legislative and executive authorities with the necessary, reliable and timely statistical and predictive-analytical information to assess the quality and effectiveness of regulatory regulation of SES development processes and, accordingly, to develop solutions to improve the management efficiency of the processes under consideration.

The structure of the monitoring system is a set of its constituent elements, the interaction of which ensures the implementation of basic technological monitoring procedures (Fig. 5) ^[42].

Fig.5. Basic elements and technological monitoring procedures

The monitoring system uses:

· Current information – information about the state and problems of the development of public relations and the socio-economic system of the country as a whole at the current time or for some period preceding it. At the same time, the current information is based both on the statistical reporting data of the relevant executive authorities and on operational data coming from other sources of information (citizens' appeals, mass media, social networks, etc.).

· Estimated information – information and estimates obtained on the basis of current or analytical processing, representing the values of performance indicators of the legal norm.

·        Analytical information is formed on the basis of certain procedures for processing current data, or the results of various special studies.

At the qualitative level , three groups of data entering the monitoring system can be distinguished:

· reporting and statistical data of judicial authorities, law enforcement and supervisory bodies of executive power, as well as its socio-economic block, public organizations, etc.;

· results of scientific research in the subject area under consideration (including multidisciplinary);

· data from mass media (including electronic media), the Internet, social networks, blogosphere, messengers, etc., as well as information from various foreign sources about the state of the external environment.

Figure 6 shows the enlarged structure of information flows of the system for monitoring the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement.

Fig. 6. The enlarged structure of information flows of the system for monitoring the effectiveness of legislative regulation

The specific composition of the functional tasks solved by the monitoring system is determined by the set goals and formulated tasks, as well as the real possibilities of access to the sources of the required data, the available resource constraints.

The complexity of the organization of monitoring the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement lies, on the one hand, in a wide variety of sources of necessary information, on the other – in the pronounced dynamic nature of the tasks being solved, since almost all objects of observation, as well as the processes, phenomena, situations, etc. under study are in constant change, development. Therefore, the most important characteristic of the monitoring system is the ability to effectively perform its functions in real time. In addition, the tasks of forming an operational information base for the current assessment and forecasting of alternative ways of developing the situation, diagnosing threats to the security of individuals, society and the state, as well as identifying "windows" of vulnerability of the system of legislative regulation or deviations from the target indicators of the implementation of legal norms are quite complex. A separate consideration and comprehensive analysis requires the problem of the organization of monitoring, as well as its legal and financial and economic support ^[43-44].

One of the features of monitoring the effectiveness of regulatory regulation is the significant need for time resources for a comprehensive and exhaustive assessment of the effectiveness of legal norms, which is associated with the need to collect, process and comprehensively analyze a significant amount of heterogeneous information and is explained by a number of objective reasons.

Firstly, the totality of only reporting and statistical indicators of the work of judicial, law enforcement and other public authorities, which is quite simple to form (albeit with a certain time delay), does not and cannot reflect the real picture, which fundamentally does not allow making any meaningful conclusions about the effectiveness of legislative regulation of the development of SES and the degree of achievement of the set goals.

Secondly, as already noted above, it is quite difficult to clearly identify the results of the action of a particular legislative norm and justify the degree of its influence on certain results or outcomes of law enforcement activities, as well as the real contribution of a particular norm to the process of achieving the goal. This is due to the fact that, for example, changes in the situation under study may be determined by improving the management system of state and social development, changing the state of the external environment (changing the direction of the destructive impact of geopolitical opponents on Russian society and the state, or adjusting the foreign policy course of Western countries with all the ensuing consequences), improving methods and technologies for preparing and committing illegal actions. crime (which may allow it to circumvent legal restrictions or well disguise its actions, evading responsibility), etc.

Thirdly, large time expenditures on monitoring procedures lead to a significant decrease in its effectiveness, since the situation in various segments of the SES in a number of practical cases can change quite quickly and be accompanied by the emergence of new risks and threats to the individual, society and the state, which, in turn, can lead to the emergence of new problems (including including those requiring immediate solutions), and, accordingly, new tasks for the development of the system of legislative regulation of the processes under consideration as a whole.

As a result, the target settings of the monitoring system should be aimed at integrating, firstly, the processes of solving the tasks of the current assessment of the actual effectiveness of legislative regulation based on the results of processing actual data on the nature and trends of socio-economic development of society and the state, and, secondly, which is especially important in the subject area under consideration, - foresight both the main alternative directions of the development of the situation under study, and the anticipation (as far as possible) of emerging new problems and tasks in order to ensure the possibility of an effective (and, if necessary, prompt) response to them by the systems of legislative regulation and law enforcement.

It should be noted here that in order to increase the effectiveness of monitoring law enforcement practice in areas of legal regulation that require prompt reaction from the legislator, the question of the expediency of developing the idea of "fast law" can be raised ^[45].

The reasons listed above determine the need to use the methodology of scenario analysis as a functional subsystem of proactive monitoring of the effectiveness of legislative regulation, ensuring the solution of the following basic tasks, providing not only an assessment of the actual effectiveness of legal norms, but also an "early warning" about possible negative social, economic and other consequences, as well as threats to the security of the individual, society and the state:

· development of a system of interrelated indicators and key indicators characterizing the achievement of the objectives of the legal act;

· analysis of the degree of achievement of the set goals of legal regulation in the process of implementing regulatory legal acts based on an assessment of the values of key indicators;

· scenario assessment of the impact of external threats and internal risks, as well as other types of uncertainty on the processes of achieving goals;

· analysis of the shortcomings identified in the course of practical action of the adopted normative legal acts and their impact on the final result;

· analysis of the expediency of supplementing, correcting or excluding certain provisions of regulatory legal acts, scenario-forecast assessment of expected results.

The solution of functional tasks of monitoring the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement involves the involvement of large amounts of information and can be implemented only on the basis of modern information technologies, automated information systems, computer networks and integrated data warehouses.

The rapid growth of data volumes describing the studied situations and processes of social and socio-economic development is currently one of the most characteristic problems of improving the quality of monitoring systems, which significantly complicate the tasks of improving the efficiency of technological and analytical analysis tools. The paradox here is that the growth of data volumes does not automatically solve the problem of the lack of necessary and useful information to solve the problems of improving the efficiency of legislative regulation and law enforcement processes.

At the same time, there are problems with the quality and reliability of data, their asymmetry, redundancy, etc., which, in particular, can be attributed to ^[46-49]:

· parallel existence of information overload and lack of necessary and useful information ;

· disadvantages of massively applied methods of analysis, leading to a loss of sensitivity to "weak signals", which, in turn, makes it extremely difficult to diagnose and assess problematic situations;

· the need for significant costs for data cleaning procedures, as well as improving their accuracy and reliability;

· weakly structured tasks of analyzing the causes and negative consequences of mistakes made in the development of legal norms or the presence of gaps in the current legislation;

· a large number of diverse sources of information and the interrelations between them, which significantly complicates the identification of key factors of the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement, as a result of which only a part of them can actually be used to analyze and model alternative ways of developing the situation.

The basis for evaluating and calculating the values of indicators of the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement should be a set of monitoring databases, which is an integrated repository of factual and other forms of data representation (IHD), having interfaces with information and expert systems, modeling systems, etc., using software tools that should be used to solve problems of evaluating the effectiveness of legislative regulation and law enforcement. The IHD should store the information necessary and sufficient to solve a set of monitoring objectives.

The concept of data warehouses is based on two fundamental ideas: (1) integration of separated detailed data (accumulated archives, data from traditional data processing systems, data from external sources, etc.) into a single repository, their coordination and aggregation; (2) separation of data sets used for operational processing and solving analysis problems ^{[46, 50-52]}.

Traditional telecommunication technologies can be used to transfer the first two groups of data to the IHD, and the use of "big data" technology (Eng.: Big data) is necessary to collect the data of the third group ^[53-57]. The enlarged technological scheme of the monitoring system is presented on the basis of the IHD in Fig. 7.

Fig.7. Enlarged technological scheme of the monitoring system

The technology in question provides the opportunity to:

· collecting data from numerous geographically distributed sources in conditions of continuous increase in the volume of information;

· intensification of the use of procedures for updating and processing the entire set of available data in their original form;

· structuring a variety of information and searching for hidden (non-obvious) connections;

· analytical processing of structured, semi-structured and unstructured data in real time.

The basic principles of working with big data are: horizontal scalability (the big data processing system should be able to expand); fault tolerance, the ability to localize data storage and processing processes in the repository.

Conclusion

The growing urgency of the problems of increasing the effectiveness of legislative regulation of the processes of managing the development of the country's SES is determined by the scale of the tasks facing Russian society and the state to ensure the sustainability and continuity of the processes of socio-economic development of the country in the long term, as well as the elimination of "windows" of vulnerability of the national economic model in the conditions of prolonged severe external restrictions. This ultimately leads to the need for a structural transformation of the national economy and an increase in the efficiency of its development management system, which is critically important in the conditions of frontal confrontation with the countries of the collective West.

All this tightens the requirements for the effectiveness of regulatory and legal regulation of the processes of socio-economic development of society and the state at all stages of legislative and law enforcement processes - from identifying problems requiring legal regulation that hinder the achievement of the goals of sustainable socio–economic development of the country, and to the final assessment of the results of the adoption and implementation of the regulatory legal acts being developed. As a result, the importance of complex interdisciplinary fundamental and applied scientific research in the development and improvement of methods and mechanisms of comprehensive multilateral and advanced assessment of the effectiveness of legal norms and the effectiveness of law enforcement processes is significantly increasing.

The approach proposed to solve the problems under consideration is based on advanced scenario analysis and modeling of the development processes of the situations under study in the political, legal, socio-political, socio-economic, innovation and technological spheres, as well as in the external environment. The scenario approach is essentially an object–oriented method of presenting and analyzing information about the internal situation in society and the state and the state of the external environment, providing the possibility of forecasting and comprehensive research of alternative ways of developing the situations under study in the preparation and implementation of decisions aimed at improving the effectiveness of legal regulation of public relations. This approach is based on a structural analysis of the studied processes and management objects, their decomposition into constituent elements, identification of the relationships between the selected elements and determination of their inherent properties in order to analyze and evaluate the processes of growth or reduce the risk of disruption of the stability of the socio-economic system in conditions of uncertainty and in the presence of external and internal disturbances or destructive influences.

The main advantage of the scenario approach is the possibility of a comprehensive advanced analysis of alternative options for the development of the situation in the studied segments of the SES on a given time horizon in order to assess the effectiveness and consistency of many regulatory decisions taken to ensure the sustainable development of the Russian state and society. The main advantage of the proposed approach in solving the problems of improving the efficiency of regulatory regulation of socio-economic development processes is the possibility of reducing the existing uncertainty and its representation using several alternative options for the development of the situations under study, which allows improving the quality of legal decisions by anticipating their effectiveness, as well as diagnosing possible negative consequences (the place of the scenario approach in the structure of the life cycle of legal norms is illustrated in Figure 8 in the form of a W-model ^[58]).

Fig. 8. W-model of the life cycle of legal norms

The potential of scenario analysis methods and technologies based on the formation and research of simulation models lies in the wide possibilities of using models built on the methodological basis of the apparatus of sign oriented graphs, allowing in the modeling process to explore the most diverse in nature and interrelated (interdependent) processes and phenomena that determine the development of the control object.

The novelty of the results obtained consists primarily in the fact that the developed theoretical provisions and formalized methodology consider the processes of improving methods and technologies of legal regulation and law enforcement as an integral part of the management system of society and the state as a whole, and, accordingly, the most important basis for their safe and sustainable development in extremely difficult modern conditions. The proposed approach also provides the possibility of information support and evaluation of the quality of preparation and implementation of decisions within the framework of the management of the processes under consideration, taking into account uncertainty.

Ultimately, the development of the methodology of scenario research should allow for a multi-sided comprehensive and at the same time detailed analysis of alternative ways of developing the socio-political and socio-economic situation in the country and its regions as a result of the implementation of certain decisions to improve the processes of regulatory regulation, which, in turn, should contribute not only to the exclusion of possible mistakes, fraught with serious consequences, but also to improve the quality and effectiveness of decisions made.