Correlation of Transformation and Modernization Processes in the Formation of the Political System of Tajikistan.

Khadyrov Ravshan Yunusovich PhD in Politics Postgraduate student, Department of World Political Processes, MGIMO 115764, Russia, Moscow region, Moscow, ul. Moscow, 63, of. Moscow khadyrov.r.u@mail.ru Other publications by this author

The topic of accelerating the modernization of largely traditional Tajik society and its political system is becoming increasingly relevant in the era of global changes in the world order. The contradiction between "tradition" and "modernity" is not only a clash of ideological, ideological and political attitudes, it is a question of the survival of power elites and the source of the development of the political system. The analysis of the vectors and completeness of the post-Soviet political-systemic and regime transformation of Tajikistan is relevant and important for assessing the resilience of the state and society to the growing global challenges and regional threats.

The purpose of the article is to determine the typology, stages of processes characterizing the institutional, political, and social changes that have occurred over the 30 years of independence. The goal is related to the research question: Is the current state of Tajikistan's political system and society the completion of the post–Soviet political transformation, the stage of democratic transit, or the next stage of modernization, institutional modification? We will begin the search for answers by considering the theory and etymological foundations of these categories.

Common to these categories in political science is their connection as elements of a single political process. N.N. Arzamaskin, conducting a logical and semantic analysis of the categories "modernization", "transformation", "transit" does not allow their identification, although he refers to German political science, which often uses the concept of "transformation" in place of the concept of "transit". According to the Russian scientist, "transformation can be transitory, and transit transformative", the transition period itself is a complex systemic category that includes elements of transformation, modernization and transit, combining these heterogeneous (polymorphic) forms in a single process ^{[3, 17-21]}.

Reference sources define political transformation as a non-linear process of transformation of the forms and content of political behavior and the life of society, its institutional sphere. These are radical structural, normative and value changes in the nature, type (model) of the political system, aimed at achieving a qualitatively new state of the system ^[18]. The essential qualities of the process of political transformation: the system institutions, their elements, functions are changing (former ones are being abolished, new ones are being created), which distinguishes it from reformation, modernization, and the high speed of transformation distinguishes transformation from evolutionary development ^[20].

According to D. Rustow, the transformational approach does not necessarily lead to the recognition of a universal paradigm for the establishment of democracy – each political system develops in its own direction, determined by the specifics of the starting conditions, which are not limited only to institutional changes ^[25]. And in the case of Tajikistan, the Tajik researcher A.Sh. Asoev states - the transformational process in the absence of experience and skills of democratic interaction and impact on society in general led to a civil war ^[4]. That is, political transformation as a process does not have a clear vector assignment, a predetermined course of events and the trajectory of the transition carried out by the elites and the whole society. It should be noted that political transformation can also be clearly regressive, which is confirmed by the facts of institutional and functional degradation of political systems in a number of countries of the Western world.

In the theory of transitology, the term "democratic transit" originally denoted the vector and process of society's transition from authoritarianism to democracy (transition to democracy). The results of this transition process in the post-Soviet countries are different, no country has achieved an idealized "standard" of democracy, including those who have declared themselves "democratic" or are recognized as such by their Western allies. This forced T. Karothers to admit that the fundamental concept of the transitological paradigm - the movement from "authoritarian regimes" to "consolidated democracy" in the era of modern political transformations requires a deep theoretical and methodological rethinking ^{[7, 41-53]}.

A.Y. Melville and B.I. Makarenko, comparing different trajectories of political transformations, showed the results of post-Soviet regime changes ("suspended" transits, "gray zone" regimes, new authoritarian regimes), which are the results of the influence of actor-oriented factors (the choice of strategic, tactical decisions by key actors of the political process) ^{[8, 429-477]}. This circumstance inclines us to consider "transit" in the definition of G. O'Donnell, F. Schmitter and L. Whitehead as "the gap (interval) between one political regime and another" ^{[23, 6]}. A number of scientists apply a suitable term for regime transitions – "political transit", which does not contain characteristics of the final state of the political system ^[5]. They admit that transitional societies have signs of democratization of political life, including democratic constitutions, regular elections of parliament and the chief executive, the presence of political space for electoral competition between the ruling and opposition parties, civil society structures, nominally independent media under authoritarian (hybrid) regimes.

The theories of transit and modernization are connected by their common function as explanatory schemes of political changes. To explain transformational processes, researchers often consider modernization as a means of transformation, and not as its goal, although the term "modernization" paradigmally and implicitly implies the goal of moving from undeveloped (traditional) models of society to developed (modern) ones. It should be noted that T. Parsons warned about the difficulty of determining the prospects for successful modernization of "non–Western" societies, constrained by ascriptive frameworks (kinship, territorial or class restrictions) of recruitment into elites - the driving forces of modernization ^[19].

In transitology, it is accepted that "transit" means the transition from one qualitative state of the political system to another, and the adjective "democratic" sets the vector and the desired goal of this movement, with a multiplicity of trajectories and results. The correlation of concepts leads to the conclusion: political modernization is a transition from a traditional political system to a modern one, and political transit is a transition from the previous regime to the new regime. According to the author, political modernization is the creation and development of modern political institutions, practices, adjustment of the political system to the changing conditions of global or regional development. Modernization in this context means both the stage (state) of socio-political, economic transformations and the transition process itself.

Sh. Eisenstadt proposed general (basic) characteristics, "which form ... the main core of the modernization of modern society" ^{[22, 3-24]}, which is also harmonized with the modernization approach of L. Share ^[24]. These conceptual approaches reflect the basic elements of political modernization that can be found during their implementation in the political system of modern Tajikistan, presented in Figure 1. The goals that are set and achieved as a result of political modernization: centralization and strengthening of state power; differentiation and specialization of political and public institutions; expansion of political participation of the masses, development of political culture, the boundaries of civic activity; weakening, replacement of traditional, ethnic, clan political elites and mechanisms for recruiting new elites. Considering the degree of implementation of the key elements of political modernization in Tajikistan, we turn to experts – direct participants (observers) of modernization.

A large layer of theoretical and methodological, empirical materials and expert assessments of the course of political modernization, the development of the institutions of the political system of modern Tajikistan is contained in the works of Tajik political scientist N.S. Murodova. For more than 20 years, she has been formulating her understanding of the specifics of the national modernization model, views on the problems of the formation and development of the political system of Tajikistan, through the categories of "political development", "political transformation", "political modification", revealing the special role of political leaders and civil society ^{[9],[11],[12],[13]}. It should be noted that the terms "democratic transit" are practically not used in the Tajik political science community. N.S. Murodova divides the dynamics of the process of political change into two stages – post-communist transformation and modernization ^{[15, 33]}, defining the transformation of the basic institutions of society as the most important criterion and result of the transformation process.

N.S. Murodova connects the first stage (transformational) with the apogee of perestroika in the USSR and before the declaration of independence of Tajikistan (1988-1991), the process of discrediting and deinstitutionalization of Soviet state-political, party institutions did not contribute to the timely legitimization and effectiveness of the newly created institutions of the independent republic, contributed to the crisis of power and economy ^{[10, 37]}. The second transformational stage began with the declaration of independence in September 1991 and ended with the end of the civil war in 1997. The adoption of the constitution, the introduction of presidential rule, the transition to a professional parliament and a competitive electoral system created prerequisites for the subsequent modernization of the political system ^{[16, 84-88]}.

The third stage, the beginning of modernization - 1997-2007. With the signing of the Agreement on National Reconciliation (1997), favorable conditions arose in Tajikistan for the modernization of the political system that meets the prevailing post-war realities of the reconstruction period. The goals of the modernization process were based on "European values": democracy, the rule of law, which formed the foundations of the constitutional system, which is "the main achievement of the classical model of modernization." At the same time, N.S. Murodova admits that despite the democratic Constitution, "modernization was carried out with a conservative rather than a liberal character" ^{[14, 578]}.

The fourth stage of modernization covers the period from 2008 to the present, and can be qualified as a political, more precisely, institutional modification. Its essence lies in the redistribution of the role and the increase in the political "weight" of the institutions of executive power, the emergence of a new "successor institution", the formation of stability and stability factors in the political system that meet the challenges of modernity, new political realities. Political modernization was carried out within the framework of the unchangeable basic principles of the structure and mode of functioning of the political system, traditional civilizational foundations. N.S. Murodova highly appreciates the practical experience and current results of Tajikistan's political modernization - they "are an example of the transformations of the country's political system, as a result of which it became a democratic republic" ^{[15, 5]}.

Another researcher of the problems of modernization, the famous Tajik philosopher H.M. Mukhabbatov outlined in his fundamental work "Will to Freedom" his vision of the concept of modernization of Tajikistan "The path to a decent future". He believes that political modernization is an indispensable condition for the implementation of large-scale industrial, socio-economic, cultural modernization ^[17]. The main theses of the thinker reflect the moods and positions of a part of the ruling and scientific Tajik elite. Let's reveal their political aspects.

Modernization begins with the transformation of forms of social consciousness and culture ^{[17, 3]}. The model of "catching up" modernization implemented in Tajikistan involves the use of "authoritarianism of development", "coercion to progress", public consensus on the exchange of political freedoms for the growth of material well-being, the expansion of vertical social mobility ^{[17, 31]}. The formation of a modernization elite is required, which implies a significant renewal of the ruling stratum, the formation of the "vanguard of modernization" in the core of the elite, consolidated on the basis of common ethics and ideology. The nature of Tajik power and high personal authority allows President E. Rahmon to modernize the elites as the main prerequisite for the modernization of the country as a whole ^{[17, 118]}.

Political modernization involves the activation of mechanisms of intra- and inter-party competition, internal staff rotation, high-quality political education, increasing the level of participation and responsibility ^{[17, 122]}. It is necessary to expand the powers of the parliament (punitive, control). Gradually, the roles of regional elites should be strengthened, and the responsibility of the bureaucracy should be increased. The main parliamentary party of the PDPT should establish strict party control, stimulate the development of intra-party democracy and discipline, ensuring competitive selection of leadership personnel, mobility and the necessary pace of renewal of the ruling elite of the country, contribute to overcoming localism, kinship ties in the distribution of public positions, eliminate monopoly on the part of individuals, groups of individuals, strengthen the fight against corruption. Mukhabbatov sees the need for "accelerated neo-industrialization" of the country under strict state control, while maintaining political and social stability and an autocratic political system "until the successful completion of the Modernization Plan of Tajikistan" ^{[17, 127-130]}.

Both approaches of scientists to political modernization reflect the trajectory of political choice between conservative and liberal models of modernization in Tajikistan. The implemented conservative national model of "catch-up modernization" in order to ensure political stability led to a rigid centralization of power, strengthening of state and political institutions, limited the scope of political participation of citizens and parties in the political process by electoral procedures, and also narrowed the field of competition of regional political elites in the struggle for the disposal and management of resources.

We state that significant results of political transformation and modernization in Tajikistan over 30 years have become: the formation of a national state, the creation of a stable political system consisting of nominally democratic political institutions functioning on democratic constitutional principles of the supremacy of the power of the people, ideological pluralism, multiparty system. At the same time, the imbalance of authoritarian, neo-patrimonial regime practices characteristic of the authorities of the post-Soviet Central Asian republics, who tried to transform and rapidly modernize traditional societies, was growing.

In 2012, President E. Rahmon acknowledged that "the country cannot turn into a democratic and civilized society in 10-20 years" ^[2], in 2022 he reminded the nation that, as before, "the creation of a democratic, legal and social society is the main goal and task of the state" ^[1]. The task of accelerated modernization, the transition of society from "tradition" to "modernity", even under authoritarian rule, is not solved quickly, difficult and with uncertain results.

The political transformation and subsequent modernization have consistently led to the disappearance or radical transformation of Soviet institutions, the construction of new political institutions of independent Tajikistan. The structural differentiation of the political system has been carried out – the parliament, executive and administrative bodies, the judicial system, political parties, trade unions and social movements (interest groups), the church, state and independent media are functioning steadily.

A common trend for countries with "traditional" societies implementing accelerated "catch-up modernization" is authoritarian methods of managing the modernization process, which is typical for Tajikistan. International experts believe that in the era of global transformations of the world political system and the formation of a new global order, "the prevailing ideological struggle will take place between those who affirm the value of tradition and those who seek to undermine this tradition, ... and many current democratic systems, regardless of what they call themselves, are likely to become much more more repressive" ^[21].^[1] This connotation leads to the conclusion that the "tradition" successfully implemented in the national model and modernization strategy may not contradict the "modernity" if political stability is achieved in the country, the institutions of the political system are stable, the economy is developing, and the people support the government and the regime in regular elections.

Figure 1. Implementation of elements of political modernization in the political system of Tajikistan^[1] Yakunin V. I., Volodenkov S. V., Bagdasaryan V. E., Vilisov M. V. Political transformations in conditions of global instability and uncertainty of the future (based on the materials of an international expert study) / Vestn.

Moscow. Un-ta. Ser. 12. Political Sciences. – Moscow: MSU, 2021. – No. 6. – pp. 8-33. http://vestnikpolit.ru/articles/article/8091/