Advantages and potential risks of introducing the digital ruble in modern Russia.

Cherenkova Svetlana Alekseevna ORCID: 0000-0002-6996-9608 Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82 Vernadskogo prosp, Moscow, Russia 119571), Student of the Department of National economy, E-mail: cherenkova_sa@mail.ru 82 Vernadsky Avenue, Moscow, 119571, Russia cherenkova_sa@mail.ru

The Central Bank's digital currency (CVCB) is a new form of money that exists only in digital form. The digital currency is issued by the central bank of the country in the national monetary unit (for example, ruble, yuan or US dollar) and is a legal tender similar to the fiat currency of the country.

At the moment, digital currencies of Central banks are being developed, tested and gradually put into circulation in almost all countries of the world due to a number of reasons discussed below.

Firstly, the development of digital currencies was largely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased the use of contactless payments and e-commerce several times, gradually replacing cash payments. This trend is most noticeable in developed and developing countries. The global average annual growth rate of non-cash retail payment transactions in the period from 2018 to 2021 was 13%, while in emerging markets this figure reached 25%. It is expected that in the period from 2021 to 2026, the average annual growth will increase even more and will amount to 15% ^[1].

Secondly, the interest of states in digital currencies is caused by the rapidly growing popularity of cryptocurrency transactions using blockchain technology. In 2021, the number of economic agents using cryptocurrencies increased from 106 million users in January to 295 million in December 2021, that is, it increased by 178% over the year ^[2]. Cryptocurrency settlements have many advantages: data security and anonymity, high transfer speed, low transaction costs, etc. Nevertheless, the widespread penetration of cryptocurrencies into the financial system causes many inconveniences to states. Cryptocurrencies can barely be regulated by law, they are decentralized and extremely volatile. That is why they are often used to carry out fraudulent and speculative operations, contributing to the development of the shadow sector of the economy. In the paper “How much illegal activity is financed through cryptocurrencies?” (2018) C. Foley et al. scientists have estimated that about a quarter of bitcoin users and half of bitcoin transactions are associated with illegal activities ^[3]. The digital currencies of Central banks, according to their idea, are designed to adapt the advantages of cryptocurrencies, while making them safer due to careful state control.

Thirdly, the digitalization of the economy is currently a global trend. Countries with a large and developed digital sector have the highest GDP growth rates in the world. Thus, according to the calculations of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), in 2021, China's digital economy reached $7.1 trillion ^[4]. From 2012 to 2021, the average growth rate of China's digital economy was 15.9%, and the total share of the digital economy in GDP increased from 21.6% in 2012 to 39.8% in 2022. At the same time, China has the largest GDP (by PPP) in the world - 27312548.29 million US dollars (in 2021) and the second largest digital economy after the United States ^[5]. Many researchers believe that the digitalization of the economy and its growth are interrelated, therefore, countries should be interested in introducing new technologies into circulation to increase the level of digitalization, including digital securities.

The distinctive characteristics of the Central Bank really correspond to the current trends in the digitalization of the economy. The new type of currency offers accelerated transactions with lower costs, an improved system for protecting user data, reduced currency maintenance costs (compared to cash), as well as increased availability of financial services for the population. The Central Bank of the country always acts as the issuer of the Central Securities Exchange. It is planned that Digital currencies will contribute to a more productive fight of states against fraudsters by reducing the money supply of M0 in circulation, and also in the future will positively affect the effectiveness of the implementation of monetary policy to ensure the stability of economies and the normalization of inflation.

As of the end of 2022, 9 small countries, some of which are island states, have successfully launched Digital currencies of Central Banks: the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Nigeria ^[6]. The experience of those countries that have put the Central Securities into circulation is invaluable, especially for small economies. However, the data and knowledge obtained during the launch in the above-mentioned states are insufficient to repeat success in countries with larger and more developed economies, including for Russia. That is why at the moment banks of countries with a significant size of the economy are actively conducting research on the feasibility of integrating Digital currencies of Central banks into financial systems. Moreover, some of these countries are already conducting pilot launches of digital currencies.  

Thus, the need for Digital currencies of Central Banks is due to the rapid digitalization of the economy, the desire to use the latest technologies to improve the efficiency of the financial system, as well as the need for regulated, more perfect domestic and cross-border monetary interaction. Russia is not lagging behind the global trend in the development of digital currencies, considering the implementation of the digital ruble in the foreseeable future.

Digital RubleAccording to the definition of the Central Bank of Russia, “the digital ruble is an additional form of the Russian national currency, which will be issued by the Bank of Russia in digital form.

The digital ruble combines the properties of cash and non-cash money” ^[7] and will have approximately the same characteristics as other Digital currencies of Central Banks.

In mid-2022, the Central Bank decided to start testing the digital ruble on Russian customers earlier than planned ^[8]. Testing will be launched in 2023, although it was previously assumed that it would begin in 2024. This decision of the Central Bank is explained by the sanctions policy of Western countries after Russia launched a “Special military operation” in February 2022. The sanctions pressure is expressed in disconnecting many Russian banks from SWIFT and adding them to the SDN list, which is aimed at weakening Russia's financial system and limiting its international economic ties.

Thus, modern Russia is in an unstable political and economic situation, the deterioration of which can be influenced by unreliable or unfriendly foreign partners. Forcing the timing of the launch of the digital ruble in such conditions can generate public discussions, therefore, this article seeks to reveal the positive and negative sides of the implementation of the digital ruble, to point out the possible consequences of its introduction, as well as to justify the expediency of the imminent launch of the digital ruble in modern Russia.

For a more complete and qualitative analysis, it is necessary to give examples of the potential advantages and risks of introducing a digital ruble, as well as comprehensively consider each of the above points.

The supposed advantages of the digital ruble for citizens and businesses:1. The user will get access to the CVCB wallet through any bank in which he is serviced and where he has an account opened.

This will lead to increased competition between high-tech services/services in the financial market due to the ability of customers to access their wallets through any financial institution. In turn, this circumstance will contribute to the expansion of available innovative products and the improvement of customer service conditions.

2. Development of high-tech and convenient financial services. The digital ruble will be implemented on the basis of distributed ledger technology. This will create an opportunity to offer market participants services such as smart contracts and tokenization (labeling) of non-cash rubles.

A smart contract is a program that is implemented only when pre-defined conditions are met. As soon as the conditions are met, the contract is executed immediately.  Smart contracts allow you to automate many operations in such a way that they are performed according to a template without intermediaries. After the smart contract is concluded, the distributed registry system is updated, which means that the transaction can no longer be changed. Encrypted transactions are almost impossible to crack, since each new record is linked to the previous and subsequent records. That is, fraudsters would have to change the entire chain of records in order to falsify one of them. Moreover, smart contracts eliminate the need to work with paper documents and optimize costs, including time spent on correcting errors that often arise as a result of filling out documents manually. Examples of areas of potential application of smart contracts can be: automatic transfer of funds (including payment of various benefits and wages), transactions with letters of credit, public procurement, etc. Marking payments will be discussed in the work below.

3. Reduction of transaction costs. According to the statements of the Central Bank of Russia in the “Concept of the Digital Ruble”, at the moment it is planned that the prices for transactions in digital rubles will not exceed the tariffs for carrying out the corresponding transactions using the Fast Payment System (SBP) ^[9]. In addition, it is possible to remove the limit on transfers between individuals and legal entities, but this nuance is not spelled out in any of the documents published by the Bank of Russia.

Nevertheless, in order to fully analyze the effectiveness of reducing transaction costs, it is necessary to know their cost, so the Central Bank should indicate at least approximate price ranges for settlements between economic agents.

4. Conducting financial transactions in offline mode. According to Rosstat data for 2020, 28.6% of all households in Russia do not have access to the Internet ^[10].  The digital ruble can expand the availability of financial services in remote and sparsely populated areas of Russia without the need to use the Internet. The possibility of functioning of the financial system in offline mode will really make it easier for some part of the population to conduct financial transactions. 

5. An increased level of security for the storage of funds and personal data. The level of safety of funds will increase due to the presence of unique numbers of digital rubles, allowing to track their movement and simplify the restoration of the violated rights of the owner in case of their loss or theft. Moreover, the digital ruble is an obligation of the Bank of Russia. Accordingly, there is potential for enhanced protection and more secure data storage. 

6. High speed of transfers. Moving funds within a single system will allow transactions to become faster. Acceleration of domestic transactions, which are currently carried out using the National Payment Card System (NSPK), is especially relevant after the departure of Visa and Mastercard in the spring of 2022 from Russia ^[11]. The NSPC processes fewer transactions per second (or TPS) than Visa. Visa is capable of conducting about 1,700 transactions per second ^[12]. According to Sergey Bochkarev (Deputy Director General of the NSPK) at the forum in 2018, at peak load times, up to 900 transactions per second were processed in the NSPK ^[13]. Despite the fact that there is no more up-to-date data on the speed of NSPK transactions in the public domain, it can be assumed that Visa is approximately 2 times faster than NSPK. The speed of transfers in digital rubles is not specified in any document of the Central Bank. Based on the experience of the pilot launch of the E-CNY digital yuan in China, it can be assumed that the transaction speed will be close to the TPS of the digital yuan – 10,000 transactions per second ^[12].

Unfortunately, the issue of transaction speed remains not fully disclosed by the Central Bank at the moment. The documents do not even indicate the approximate planned number of transactions per second of the digital ruble. Probably, this issue requires more careful consideration by the Central Bank for a more comprehensive assessment of the positive effect of the speed of the digital ruble by future customers.

Some advantages of the digital ruble are most relevant not for the population and business, but for the state as a whole:

1. Reducing the cost of managing budget payments. The process of administration of budget funds will be greatly simplified through the use of smart contracts. The management of budget payments will become more efficient by minimizing operational risks. The digital ruble can be used in the payment of salaries, allowances and other social payments, as well as in the implementation of public procurement. However, the Bank of Russia believes that every citizen should still have the right to independently choose the most convenient form of money in which he will receive such payments and transfers.

2. Settlement operations within the EAEU. Another goal of introducing the digital ruble is economic cooperation with countries that will also launch their own national digital currencies, in particular with the EAEU and CIS states. This circumstance will allow us to have another solution to the problem of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system, since in this case SWIFT is not involved.

3. Control over the expenditure of budgetary funds. The launch of the digital ruble will allow the state to use such a method as marking (tokenization, “colorability”) of money – cash flow control, which helps to ensure the guaranteed targeted delivery of targeted payments to citizens and businesses, as well as to prevent their spending for purposes that do not correspond to their purpose.

Cash is a very attractive tool for money laundering, tax evasion, payment fraud and other criminal activities. The listed risks can be leveled due to the widespread use of the digital national currency and the reduction of the mass of cash in the economy. The digital ruble is based on distributed ledger technology, so each individual ruble is marked, acquires a unique digital code, which allows you to track the flow of funds. That is why the use of the central bank's digital currency can make it much more difficult to carry out illegal activities.

A real example confirming the effectiveness of the fight of national banks' digital currencies against fraud is the uncovered criminal case that occurred in China in November 2021, when a pilot launch of the digital yuan was conducted in China ^[14]. The criminal was found quickly enough and arrested by the police for stealing money from another person's digital wallet in the amount of more than 300,000 yuan (47,000 US dollars). This case demonstrates that the "colorability" of the Central Bank really simplifies the detection of illegal actions using digital currencies. 

4. The ability to perform research on economic entities and their financial transactions based on large data sets ^[15]. Such information will allow for a more qualitative and detailed analysis of the financial activity of the population, tracking financial flows in the Russian economy. That is, the markability of the digital ruble can be not only a new tool of the law enforcement system, but also a means to collect the necessary statistical data.

Summing up the above, the digital ruble really has a lot of advantages. The national digital currency can expand the availability of financial services, increase the speed and security of transactions, and reduce the costs of their implementation. In addition, it can make transactions more transparent and improve anti-money laundering mechanisms. However, there are risks that can reduce or even completely devalue all these benefits. That is why for the successful implementation of the digital ruble, it is necessary to conduct a thorough economic assessment of possible risks.

Risks of introducing the digital ruble into the financial system:

1. The potential impossibility of qualitative application of the “colorability” property of the digital ruble. The risk associated with this feature of the new form of currency is that Russians tend to transfer their savings in banks into cash units during crisis and unstable situations. Figure 1 shows the annual growth rate of the monetary aggregate M0 in Russia over the past 3 years (in%). Analyzing the graph, it can be traced that the volume of cash in circulation increased most actively during the first mass quarantine associated with the COVID-19 pandemic – in the spring of 2020. A noticeable decrease in M0 in the economy began only after a year of fighting coronavirus infection, that is, in the spring of 2021. The next noticeable surge occurred in early March 2022 and was associated with the beginning of Russia's “Special Military Operation". Despite the fact that the Central Bank of Russia immediately raised the key rate to 20% ^[16] in March 2022, and banks, in turn, increased rates on deposit programs ^[17] to attract citizens' funds, a sharp annual growth rate of cash in March 2022 still occurred. In September 2022, the annual growth rate of the monetary aggregate M0 also sharply increased — to 8.3% compared to 4% in August.

Fig.1: Annual growth rates of the monetary aggregate M0 in Russia in the period from the beginning of 2019 to September 2022, in %. Source: Bank of Russia ^[18]

The massive desire of citizens to use cash during periods of socio-economic instability can lead to an increased risk of citizens transferring their cash to fraudsters or criminal organizations without the possibility of their further tracking and return. Accordingly, this trend will not allow using one of the key properties of the digital ruble — markability.

Therefore, for the effective use of the “colorability” of the digital ruble and for effective counteraction to criminal activity, it is necessary to reduce the monetary aggregate M0 in the Russian economy by increasing citizens' confidence in the banking system and increasing the level of financial literacy of the population.

2. The risk associated with the introduction of offline transactions. The problem of lack of Internet access is really relevant at the moment. The author mentioned above that approximately a quarter of the Russian population does not have access to the Internet (28.6% of all households). However, a more thorough analysis of the data shows that, according to Rosstat, 23.6% of Russians who do not have access to the Internet expressed a complete lack of desire to use the Internet; 24.6% do not have access to the Internet due to lack of funds; 51.8% do not conduct home Internet for other reasons ^[10]. The Rosstat report does not disclose in detail all the reasons why households do not have access to the Internet. It can be assumed that in the most extensive category “inability to connect home Internet due to other reasons” (51.8%) there are many important factors that may further affect the use of offline transactions by the population. For example, the relatively low financial literacy of the population. According to the calculations of the Central Bank in 2020, the financial literacy index was 54 points out of 100 possible ^[19].

Accordingly, the introduction of the digital ruble will only partially offset the problem of the inability of some part of the population to access the Internet. There is a possibility that citizens with a low level of financial literacy and insufficient confidence in government initiatives will not be able to use the offline transaction service. For example, due to a lack of understanding of the need for this tool, due to insufficient desire or inability to master a new theology, etc. This, in turn, will have an impact on the ability to control the flow of funds using the “colorability” property of the digital ruble.

Thus, before offering an offline payment service, it is necessary to pay more attention to improving the level of knowledge of citizens in the field of handling innovative financial technologies, otherwise there is a possibility that new technologies will not be fully used by the population.

3. The risk associated with the leakage of data of citizens using the digital ruble. The concentration of a huge amount of data in one institution – the Central Bank can lead to increased privacy risks for citizens. Accordingly, if the payment data of all citizens are concentrated in the databases of the Central Bank, this will create incentives for mass cyber attacks, especially in conditions of geopolitical instability.

An example confirming the existence of this problem is the large-scale theft of Russians' data, which Sberbank announced in the summer of 2022. According to Sberbank, since the end of February 2022 (since the beginning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine), 65 million personal data of their customers have been stolen due to a huge number of cyber attacks. Thus, Sberbank registered about 300,000 people who took part in hacker attacks. Moreover, according to Sberbank, after the start of the “special military operation”, the number of cyber attacks on business has increased by about 15 times, which causes significant damage to the economy ^[20]. Consequently, even a small security flaw in the system can subsequently turn into a serious distrust of the population towards the digital ruble and the Central Bank as a whole.

Thus, the Central Bank is likely to face two global risks. The first of them is the risk associated with the reputation of the Central Bank. The digital ruble proposal requires the Central Bank to carefully study all aspects of the introduction of the digital ruble, including legislative ones, which have not yet been presented even in a “draft” form. In case of improper execution of any aspects, the population may stop trusting the digital ruble. Moreover, technological failures or cyberattacks can also undermine public confidence in the operations of the Central Bank. The second global risk is the lack of public confidence in government initiatives and low financial literacy, which may adversely affect the practical use of the advantages of the digital ruble.

Risk leveling 1. Increasing public confidence in the launch of the digital ruble and other innovations of the Bank of Russia.

According to a 2018 sociological study by the Chi-Square Center, the Central Bank of Russia is leading in terms of the degree of distrust of citizens ^[21]. Focusing specifically on the digital ruble, in November 2022, Otkritie Bank conducted a survey aimed at showing how the Russian population feels about this initiative. The survey showed the following results: 60% of respondents support the launch of the digital ruble; 30% — find it difficult to determine their attitude to the digital ruble; 10% — oppose its introduction. Despite the fact that more than half of respondents positively assess the potential introduction of a new form of the ruble, it cannot be said that the level of public confidence in the digital ruble is currently very high, because almost a third of respondents are unable to form a specific opinion about the introduction of the digital ruble into the financial system, and 10% categorically do not welcome its introduction at all. It should also be taken into account that the respondents of the survey were citizens from large cities of Russia with a population of more than 100 thousand people. At the same time, the opinion of people from smaller cities may differ. Thus, the problem of low public confidence in government initiatives is currently relevant.

According to the author, an increase in public confidence in the digital ruble can be achieved by the Central Bank publishing the latest results of ongoing research on the prospects and risks of introducing the digital ruble. In particular, special attention should be paid to ensuring the confidentiality of user data, the speed and cost of transactions with the digital ruble, as well as instructions on the practical use of the digital ruble by citizens. By carrying out more comprehensive work to inform citizens about innovations in the financial system, both through electronic, print and television media, and through other channels of interaction with the population, the Bank of Russia can level the problem of citizens' confidence in the launch of the digital ruble and in the work of the Central Bank as a whole.

2. Improving the level of financial literacy. Currently, there is a gradual increase in the number of mass educational programs and activities aimed at improving the level of financial literacy of the population, especially for schoolchildren and pensioners ^[22]. Perhaps it is worth identifying ways to further expand information interaction with citizens through the media and the Internet, which will allow reaching a wider audience for the dissemination of knowledge in the field of financial literacy.

3. Leveling reputational risk. This risk can be reduced due to the preliminary qualitative preparation by the Central Bank of an action plan in various critical situations for the functioning of the system. Competent and quick solutions to emerging problems will testify to the professionalism of Central Bank employees. In addition, the assistance of the Bank of Russia in improving financial literacy and public confidence in government initiatives may also contribute to reducing the likelihood of the formation of an unfavorable image of the Central Bank in the eyes of the population, provided that problems arise with the introduction of the digital ruble.

Nevertheless, many more ways of leveling the risks presented in the study related to the launch of the digital ruble can be proposed. It is important to understand that the methods of risk reduction given by the author in this work can and should be the subject of discussion and additional study. Accordingly, the issue of eliminating the listed risks remains relevant at the present time.

Summing up the above, it should be borne in mind that the advantages of the digital ruble concept in practice may be offset by insufficiently thorough elaboration of its introduction strategy. Many potentially positive aspects of the launch of the digital ruble require special accompanying conditions for their successful implementation, for example: increasing the financial literacy of the population to use innovative digital ruble services (smart contracts, offline transactions); increasing the level of public confidence in the stability of the banking system, so that during crisis situations cash in the economy does not become much more; as well as the concretization of some aspects by the Central Bank, so that their effective impact on the financial system can be comprehensively assessed (accurate determination of the speed and cost of transactions). In addition, the launch of the digital ruble will require the Central Bank to be ready to respond quickly to emerging risks related to both database security and ensuring adequate liquidity of the banking sector.

The established deadlines for testing the ruble, although somewhat forced, still meet the current geopolitical realities. At the moment, the Central Bank, through testing, is finalizing the concept of the digital ruble, testing some technical aspects of its work to calculate the speed and cost of transactions, to develop a regulatory framework for the digital national currency, as well as to identify technical features to ensure uninterrupted and reliable operation of the system.

Thus, the testing and introduction of the digital ruble must take place in the next few years, regardless of the geopolitical conditions. Modern Russia, like other countries, is currently trying to develop dynamically in the digital field. The launch of a digital national currency in such a large-scale economy as the Russian one will indicate an advanced level of digitalization of the country and its competitiveness in the international arena; it will help to maintain productive and uninterrupted trade with friendly countries in the future, thereby reducing dependence on possible sanctions and, as a result, will raise the level of financial stability of the country. Moreover, the introduction of the digital ruble can serve as a step in solving other problems of the Russian economy, such as increasing the level of financial literacy of the population, confidence in innovative initiatives at the national level and improving the technical equipment of banks. It is not necessary to consider the digital ruble as a panacea for all the problems of the financial system. Nevertheless, with the right actions on the part of the Central Bank, the digital ruble will help bring the financial system to a new level, making it more convenient for all economic agents.

A real example confirming the effectiveness of the fight of national banks' digital currencies against fraud is the uncovered criminal case that occurred in China in November 2021, when a pilot launch of the digital yuan was conducted in China ^[14].The criminal was found quickly enough and arrested by the police for stealing money from another person's digital wallet in the amount of more than 300,000 yuan (47,000 US dollars). This case demonstrates that the “colorability” of the Central Bank really simplifies the detection of illegal actions using digital currencies.