At the Dominion of the Disasters: Rural Communities of Yakutia in the Conditions of Floods of the Twentieth Century (on the Example of the Village of Khotochu, Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg, Khangalassky District)

Filippova Viktoriia Viktorovna ORCID: 0000-0002-3900-918X PhD in History Senior Scientific Associate, Department of History and Artcic Studies, Institute of Humanities Research and Indigenous Studies of the North of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Natural Sciences, Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University 677027, Russia, Yakutsk, ul. Petrovskogo, 1, of. 403 filippovav@mail.ru Other publications by this author

Grigorev Stepan Alekseevich ORCID: 0000-0001-9365-0122 PhD in History Senior Researcher, Head of the laboratory "Human in the Arctic", Institute for Humanities Research and Indigenous Studies of the North of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (IHRISN SB RAS) 677027, Russia, Republic of the Republic of Sakha /Yakutia/, Yakutsk, Petrovsky str., 1, office 403 detample@yandex.ru

IntroductionThe problems of global climate change and adaptation to its negative consequences have been in the focus of attention of the world community in recent decades.

International monitoring of the cryolithozone and ecosystems of the North, in which the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) occupies a central place. Climate changes have a significant impact on the state of permafrost, the hydrological cycle, socio-economic processes and the way of life of indigenous peoples in the Arctic and Subarctic. The flow of the largest Arctic rivers is increasing ^{[27, 29]}, snow cover is decreasing ^[24], permafrost temperature is increasing ^[23], thawing depth is increasing ^[28], thermokarst processes are intensifying ^[25].

Traditionally and everywhere, water systems act as the main framework of life support around the world, directly affecting the standard of living and the pattern of settlement. The consumption of economic resources of reservoirs, including their communication capabilities, has always been a key factor in the development of human communities. But, along with the possibilities, the water element can also pose a serious threat in the form of floods or droughts, which also determine the standard of living of surrounding societies. The economic system of most regions of Yakutia is characterized by specific settlement schemes and forms of life activity, where the hydrographic network represented by the basins of large rivers – Lena, Anabar, Yana, Indigirka and Kolyma plays an important role. Studies show that the flow of rivers in the Lena River basin, where a significant part of the settlements of Yakutia is located, is growing ^[24]. These large bodies of water, which carry the risks of flooding and shallowing, are the most important factor in the development of local communities. The fate of people living in the harsh natural and climatic conditions of Yakutia and leading a traditional lifestyle directly depends on them.

The combined effect of these changes causes a wide range of consequences for a person and his living conditions. Sufficient theoretical and empirical material has already been accumulated abroad to assess the impact of climate change on the indigenous communities of Greenland, North America and Scandinavia, and their adaptation to these changes. Such comprehensive studies of the socio-humanitarian direction in relation to the Russian North have been started relatively recently. Studies on the experience of adaptation of the population and the practice of responding to climate change in Yakutia have shown that preventing and minimizing the consequences of floods is a complex task, depending on both natural and human factors, and remains a problem for village administrations and other public service bodies ^{[26, 5, 12]}.

Another important factor that has a significant impact on the socio-economic well-being of the rural population of Yakutia is the problem of degradation of permafrost soils and associated deformations of the landscape. In recent years, permafrost in Eastern Siberia has been strongly influenced by climate change in the Arctic. The Arctic experienced a period of warming in the middle of the XX century (1935-1945), but then the warming in Eastern Siberia was local, the tendency to increase in temperature was manifested only in the tundra strip along the coast of the Arctic Ocean. However, since the 1990s, there has been a clear warming trend in larger areas. Especially in the 2000s, a situation was observed throughout Eastern Siberia when the average annual air temperature simultaneously increased, the value of the thawing index increased in the summer season and the value of the freezing index decreased in the winter season. This indicates changes in the environment, in which frozen rocks began to thaw more intensively in summer and freeze worse in winter. In addition to warming in Eastern Siberia, since the 2000s, there has been such an aspect of climate change as an increase in humidity ^{[2, p. 34-35]}.

One of the most dangerous consequences of this is the degradation of permafrost. During field research in rural regions of Yakutia, it was found that residents of local settlements are already facing a whole range of problems caused by warming. The lack of territory for living, the deformation of residential buildings and the deterioration of the transport system of the district ? all this negatively affects the social well-being of the local population. It is likely that a further change in climatic conditions towards warming may bring positive changes in the local economy (primarily in agriculture) and generally increase the comfort of living, but we should not forget that the shortage of natural low temperatures can carry both direct and indirect threats, the consequences of which may manifest themselves only after a long period of time. p. 59. ^{[6, p. 59]}.

In these publications, the territory that is the object of the article's research was not considered. Expanding the research of the socio-humanitarian direction, the authors detail the approach to clarify and expand the list of target indicators for assessing the socio-economic efficiency of measures proposed for the implementation of measures to reduce the negative impact of the Lena River waters, proposed by Reznikov V.F., Rybkina I.D., Stoyasheva N.V., Marusin K.V. ^[12].

In the article, the authors focused on the reasons for the different levels of indicators of the vulnerability index of the settlement – the village of Khotochu, which is a typical example of a small coastal settlement located on the banks of the Lena River.

In this regard, the authors aim this study to identify optimal strategies for the survival and development of small settlements in the Arctic region facing threats of a sharp change in the water balance of adjacent territories caused by abrupt climatic changes. The object of the study is a small rural settlement of Khotochu, which is part of the municipality "Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg" of the Khangalassky ulus of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and located on the banks of the Lena River. The subject of the study is the adaptation of residents of the village of Khotochu to extreme flood conditions. The chronological framework of the study covers the periods of the most destructive floods that affected the socio-economic situation of the local population and is determined by factual data and identified sources.

The materials for the study were archival documents from the National Archive of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), materials of the current archive of the municipality "Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg", official documents of departmental organizations, annual reports of heads of municipalities, published scientific articles, field materials collected in September 2021 in the village of Khotochu and the results of the survey and interviewing.

Statistical, comparative geographical and retrospective methods were used to identify the practice of population adaptation and administrative response in the study area. The authors applied qualitative methods in the course of field research: informal and in-depth interviews, included observation, as well as work with current and archival sources.

Small settlements facing challenges: history, development and current stateGlobal climate warming is accompanied by an increase in the number of natural disasters and an increase in the damage caused by them.

Floods are considered to be the most significant in terms of their destructive consequences. Natural emergencies, such as floods and forest fires, create great difficulties for the life of the population, especially in rural areas of the republic: economic and industrial activities stop, the lifestyle of the population temporarily changes.

Exceptional floods remain in the memory of residents of flooded places. To date, there is only a single piece of information about the catastrophic river spills of the previous centuries on the territory of Yakutia. Based on the study of chronicles, diaries and records of travelers, the following historical information about floods in the territory of the capital of the republic - the city of Yakutsk was revealed: 1807, 1809, 1843, 1863, 1869, 1894, 1913, 1915, 1924, 1933, 1958 years . Less detailed information is available about the spills of other rivers of Yakutia ^[20].  Catastrophic floods on the Kolyma River were noted in 1820, 1842, 1883, 1929, on the Amga River – 1957 and 1967, on the Yana River - in 1918 ^[13].

From the late 1960s to 1998, no exceptional floods were recorded on the territory of Yakutia, which was due to the annual preventive measures, among which dredging took an important place. Hydrological researchers, having counted the cases of flooding on the Lena, Aldan, Amga, Kolyma, and Yana rivers for the period from 1940 to 2012, found that for a period of 73 years, only 14 years of settlements in Yakutia were not flooded. In their opinion, the frequency of floods was as follows: for 15 years – 1, for 10 years – 2, for 5 years – 4, for 3 years – 5, for 1 (2001) – 6, for 1 (1955) - 7 cases of floods. A particularly large number of cases of flooding occurred in 1968 (10 cases) and in 1998 (11 cases) ^[1].

In previously published studies, there is no information about floods in the village of Khotochu. In view of the fact that the village has been subjected to significant floods in the last twenty years, the authors, within the framework of the RFBR project No. 20-55-71005, conducted studies to identify optimal strategies for survival and development of small settlements in the Arctic region facing threats of a sharp change in the water balance of adjacent territories caused by abrupt climatic changes.

The village of Khotochu is part of the Zhemkon 1st nasleg, the center of which is the village of Tit-Ebya and is 7 km away. The territory of Naslega is located on the opposite bank of the Lena River, 84 km from Yakutsk. The Nizhny-Bestyakh - Bolshoy Nevers highway (Lena) passes through the territory of the Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg MO. The total area of the nasleg is 248,116 ha, of which 497 ha of arable land, 2512 ha of hayfields, 6141 ha of pastures, 238961 ha belongs to the forest fund ^[9].

The valley of the Lena River, where the nasleg in question is located, has been mastered by man since the Paleolithic period. Numerous archaeological studies have found confirmation of several waves of “colonizers” of this region, who arrived and adapted to it in different epochs. But the first documentary data were made in 1632 during the time of another explorers of the North and the Arctic – Russian pioneers. They found in these territories a fairly developed culture of Yakuts-pastoralists who lived a semi-nomadic lifestyle in relatively small clan-tribal groups, who managed to master significant territories of the Asian northeast and adapt to its difficult climatic conditions. Over time, as a result of intercultural interaction, local Yakuts gradually began to settle down and adapt to new conditions.

The village was formed before 1917 and had the following names – Budyonny, 5th brigade, Neryuktyai. According to local residents, until 1951 the village was part of the II Neryuktyai nasleg. In 1939, 71 people lived in the locality of Khotchu-ary, and 31 people lived in Khotchu-sayylyk, in 1959 224 people lived in Khotchu-Sayylyga, in 1970 there were 305 people in the village of Khotchu, in 1979 – 306 people, in 1989 - 277 people, in 2002 – 265 people, in 2010 – also 265 people ^[21]. The majority of the population in the village is Yakuts, and the total population in 2020 was 270 people, actually 232 people lived. The number of residents increases in the summer due to arrivals for haymaking. A significant decrease is observed in the autumn due to those who go to study and serve in the army.

The main occupation of the population is meat and dairy cattle breeding, meat herd horse breeding (Table 1). In 2017, the main local enterprise - the agricultural production cooperative (SHPC) “Khotochu" ceased its activities. In nasleg, agriculture is represented by three forms of ownership: farms of the population and peasant farms, agricultural cooperatives, such as the horse breeding farm "Dianyl", the milk processing farm "Samarthai" and others, whose activities are cattle breeding, herd horse breeding, animal husbandry in combination with crop production, production and sale of agricultural products.  

The population is also engaged in growing potatoes, open-ground vegetables (carrots, cabbage). The sown area of the field is 139.51 hectares, including potatoes – 83.4 hectares, open-ground vegetables – 56.1 hectares. In the structure of acreage by category of farms, personal farmsteads occupy 14.48%, peasant farms – 24.94%, the public sector – 60.58%. In 2011, the Yandreev Farm set a republic record for the yield of carrots and potatoes – 416 and 400 quintals were harvested from 1 ha. In the structure of the livestock of farm animals by categories of farms, personal farmsteads occupy 43.11%, peasant farms – 30.06%, the public sector – 26.83%.

Table 1

Indicators of agricultural activity of the MO “Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg”

(compiled on the basis of annual reports posted on the official website of the Ministry of Defense)

Most of the farm animals are kept in private subsidiary farms, thus most of the livestock products produced are produced by the population. There is a decrease in the total number of farm animals, the reason for this is the lack of feed, poor quality of hay, resulting from prolonged rains and flooding. Currently, in the settlements of the Zhemkonsky 1st naslega, as in most rural settlements of the republic, where monetary incomes are extremely low, income from personal subsidiary farming plays an important role. In many ways, the standard of living of rural residents is maintained thanks to personal subsidiary farming. The volume of own food production in rural areas allows not only to consistently consume meat, milk, potatoes, vegetables, but also to donate excess milk and sell meat on the market ^[9].

Due to the geographical features of the location of the village in the floodplain of the Lena River, it is constantly flooded. As a result of work in the National Archive of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), it was possible to find information about the flood of 1930 ^{[8, l. 2, 2 vol., 3]}. That year , the number of inhabitants of 1 Zhemkonsky nasleg was 457 people . In total, as a result of this flood, the losses caused by the flooding of the Lena River to the West Khangalassky ulus with the borders of 1 Zhemkonsky nasleg amounted to 47545 rubles, including 86 houses were damaged, the amount of damage was 16900 rubles, the number of damaged barns was 85 in the amount of 2890 rubles, property (hotons, foals, etc.) – 84 in the amount of 2650 rubles. the number of horses - 58 in the amount of 4315 rubles, cattle – 13 in the amount of 600 rubles, hay 155 carts in the amount of 1550 rubles, household utensils (furniture, clothing, equipment, etc.) in the amount of 5740 rubles, bread (stocks of grain in poods – 242, flour – 93, damaged grain fields (fields under the ice) – 20, haymaking – 496. The total amount of losses on the West Kangalassky ulus was 270968 rubles, respectively, the share of losses of the Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg accounted for 17.5%.

Floods of 2010, 2013, 2018 caused significant damage to the village. According to 2018 data, there were 63 courtyards in the flood zone, where 138 people lived, including 42 children. According to the GKU of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) ID and HDL and IAD in RS(I)” in 2018, 9 houses were flooded, where 29 people lived ^[7].

Fig. 1. Photo of the flood in the spring of 2010 in the village of Khotochu

 (provided by the administration of the MO “Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg")

The village participates in the activities of regional authorities on adaptation to climate changeCatastrophic floods in the basins of the Lena, Kolyma, Aldan and Amga rivers and small rivers of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), occurring with a steady frequency, contributed to the Government of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) to adopt a number of measures included in the Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period up to 2030 with the definition of the target vision up to 2050 the regional Plan of adaptation to climate change for the period up to 2025 and for the long term up to 2050 ^[15].

Taking into account the dangerous trends that have arisen with global climate change, the main tasks for protecting the population and economic facilities from the effects of natural hazards identified by the Government of Yakutia in the Socio-Economic Development Strategy are:

- Definition of scientifically-based mechanisms of adaptation of socio-economic development to the conditions of global climate change;

- Ensuring the protection of the population and economic facilities from the negative effects of water by the necessary engineering protection structures:

- establishment of boundaries of flood zones of settlements;

- prevention of negative effects of water;

- relocation and liquidation of small coastal settlements located in a potential flooding zone;

- construction, overhaul and operation of hydraulic engineering and protective structures.

The expected results of these measures are: coverage of water bodies by monitoring studies, up to 100%; reduction in the number of settlements located in areas exposed to the negative effects of water; the amount of economic damage prevented as a result of preventive measures.

According to the Regional Plan of Adaptation to Climate Change in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period up to 2025 and for the long term up to 2050, the identification of flooding and flooding zones near water bodies in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the prohibition of the use of these zones are indicated as priority adaptation measures. In total, 123 settlements are included in this List, of which 64 settlements (with a population of 166.6 thousand people) are in urgent need of construction of engineering protection and shore protection facilities.

Flooding and flooding are among the possible forms of negative impact of water on certain territories and objects. Zones of flooding and flooding are established in order to protect the life and health of citizens. A flood zone is an area at risk of natural emergencies and is established in accordance with the Rules for Determining the Boundaries of Flood zones, Flooding, approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 360 of 18.04.2014, in order to protect the population and minimize damage from natural disasters.

As part of the implementation of this event, the Lena Basin Water Management (Federal Agency of Water Resources) in 2020 developed a list of settlements where flood zones are established. According to Order No. 04-24-4329 of 06/17/2020, a flooding zone of 1% security (repeatability once every 100 years) and restrictions on economic and other activities in the flooding zone of 1% security are established in the border of the settlement of Khotochu ^[14].

The establishment of this zone introduces a protection regime in accordance with Article 67.1 of the Water Code of the Russian Federation Within the boundaries of Flood Zones, flooding, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation on urban development activities classified as zones with special conditions for the use of territories, are prohibited:

1) placement of new settlements and construction of capital construction facilities without providing engineering protection of such settlements and facilities from flooding, flooding;

2) the use of wastewater in order to regulate soil fertility;

3) placement of cemeteries, animal burial grounds, facilities for the disposal of production and consumption waste, chemical, explosive, toxic, toxic and poisonous substances, storage and disposal of radioactive waste;

4) implementation of aviation measures to combat harmful organisms.

There is a separate federal target program "Development of the water management complex of the Russian Federation in 2012-2020". As part of the implementation of this approach, specialists have clarified and expanded the list of target indicators for assessing the socio-economic efficiency of measures proposed for the implementation of measures to reduce the negative impact of the Lena River waters. According to their research, the village of Khotochu, based on its population size, is included in the third group - up to 500 people, in most of whom the implementation of the proposed measures is economically inefficient. For these settlements, alternative measures should be considered to protect the population from the negative effects of water, including relocation to higher areas of the territory, to other settlements ^[12].

Let's consider the target indicators of S. Khotochu, characterizing the immediate and final result of the implementation of measures with planned volumes and sources of funding, proposed by researchers ^[12]. These targets in quantified values have a socially significant outcome and the resulting social effects (Table 2).

Table 2

Target indicators for assessing the socio-economic efficiency of the implementation of measures to reduce the negative impact of the Lena River waters

(compiled by the authors on the basis of municipal statistics on the website of the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the current archive of the Ministry of Defense "Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg")

According to the authors, the algorithm of the proposed methodological approach to assessing the effectiveness and phasing of the implementation of measures assumes a consistent ranking of the values of target indicators in accordance with the order of the degree of achievement of the results of the measures. This approach, taking into account all of the above indicators, allows combining individual activities into groups that determine the stages (priority) of their implementation, which will allow in the future, based on the amount of funding, to direct budget allocations, first of all, to the most flood-prone and socially significant regions ^[12]. An analysis of the available targets and measures showed that today the village of Khotochu is included in the List of settlements where flood zones are established, but the general plan of the village has not yet been developed.

There is another methodology for assessing the vulnerability of settlements to the negative consequences of water resources – this is the Arctic Water Vulnerability Index (AWRVI), which can be used to assess the relative vulnerability of local communities to factors affecting freshwater resources at the watershed scale. The index summarizes in sufficient detail the features of Arctic socio-ecological systems, it was developed by specialists of the universities of Alaska, in particular, Resilience and Adaptive Management Group, University of Alaska Anchorage, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks. The index was tested on the example of Alaska communities and currently this method continues to be improved ^{[22, 30]}.

Based on this methodology, T.N. Gavrilyeva calculated an Integral Vulnerability Index for all settlements included in the List of established flood zones of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) ^[19]. The integral vulnerability index calculated for the Zhemkon 1st nasleg is 0.45, which means that the village of Khotochu is on the threshold of vulnerability. The integral index is calculated on the basis of the transport accessibility index, which is -1 for Khotchu, the community strength index is 0.50, the tradition continuity index is 0.50, the land use protection index is 0.00, the population income index is 0.25, respectively ^[19].

The transport accessibility index for Khotochu equal to 1 means that the village has good transport connectivity due to the proximity of the federal highway “Lena”. The calculated indices of community strength (data on the voting of the population in elections) and continuity of traditions (data on the age of the population according to the results of the All-Russian Population Census) are on the threshold of vulnerability of sustainability. The income index of the population of the village of Khotochu is estimated to have a moderate vulnerability. The land use protection index has a high vulnerability, which is due to the absence of specially protected natural territories on the territory of nasleg, which is considered one of the indicators for calculating the index. The vulnerability of land use is also related to the fact that agricultural land is located in flooded areas.

In order to implement the item "Formation and improvement of the monitoring system and regulatory and methodological framework in terms of adaptation to climate change", improvements in forecasting and warning systems for hurricanes, tornadoes, very strong winds, ice and frost phenomena contained in the Adaptation Plan have been included in the village loudspeakers have been installed.

Preparation for the spring flood by the nasleg administration is carried out in advance. So, before the beginning of the year, funds are allocated in the local budget for the elimination of emergency situations for the next year. In 2020 , 100 thousand rubles were laid . At the beginning of the year, relevant orders are issued on the creation of a reserve of food, fuel and lubricants. An action plan for the safe passage of water is being developed. Before the start of the ice drift, leaflets are distributed to explain to the population about safety measures during the spring flood.

The annual plan of the main activities of the municipality "Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg" in the field of civil defense, emergency prevention and response, fire safety and human safety on water bodies includes groups of activities: "Organization and holding of meetings of the Commission for the Prevention and Liquidation of Emergency Situations and Fire Safety of the Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg MO, "Development and adjustment of Plans", "Formation of a regulatory legal framework that ensures the activities of the Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg municipality", "Planning of preventive measures", "Training of officials and specialists", "Measures to check the readiness of the management bodies of the settlements of the Khangalassky link of the YTP of the RSChS for actions for their intended purpose" and "Measures to check the readiness of housing and utilities and energy facilities, budget institutions" ^[10]. Activities under this Plan are carried out throughout the year, but most of them begin in March.

The attitude of the local community to climate changeTo identify this issue, as well as to determine the social risks, impact and damage caused by extreme flood processes in 2020 and 2021, field studies were conducted in Khangalassky ulus, of which the village of Khotochu is a part, by mass questioning and interviewing local residents.

A total of 131 respondents were interviewed. As a result, it was revealed that rural residents note various changes in local natural systems. In particular, respondents believed that the concept of "climate change" is characterized by such phenomena as a warmer winter (64.1%), a prolonged autumn (42.0%), a sharp increase and decrease in temperature (61.1%), air pollution (52.7%), a lot of snow (40.5%), strong winds (48.9%), drought (36.6%), etc. It is particularly worth noting that among the respondents there was a high proportion of those who noted the melting of "permafrost" as a sign of modern climate change (74.0%).

Interestingly, rural residents considered severe floods (51.9%), increased summer flooding of the river (38.9%), degradation or disappearance of reservoirs – 33.6% and 37.4% respectively - as possible signs of climate change affecting the state of the environment. The respondents also highlighted the deterioration of the forest (64.1%), the increase in forest fires (75.6%), the total loss of forest (72.5%), as well as the impact of insect pests (55.7%). Such high figures of concern about fires and forest destruction are easily explained. In 2021, a series of large-scale forest fires swept across Yakutia, causing huge economic and environmental damage to the infrastructure of the republic ^{[3, 11]}. The fire from those fires did not come directly to the village of Khotochu, but it raged strongly in most of the territory of the Khangalassky ulus, which could not but leave an impression on its residents. In addition, the forest fires of 2021 received massive media coverage, which also had a huge impact on the attitude of the local population.

The respondents highlighted drinking water (55%), human health (52.7%), hunting and fishing (48.9%), keeping cattle and deer (46.6%), agricultural land (50.4%) as the most vulnerable elements of everyday rural life that may suffer from climate change and its negative consequences.), as well as reservoirs, forests, flora and fauna (42.7%, 51.1%, 47.3% and 46.6%, respectively).

When assessing the degree of threat associated with climate change and the environment, which may directly or indirectly affect a rural resident and his family, respondents noted the threat of severe floods. 47.3% of rural residents of Khangalassky ulus replied that severe floods could affect their lives, and 32.8% even noted the strong influence of this factor. In other words, 80.1% of the respondents somehow felt the threat of floods. 

In this vein, the ways of preventing the negative manifestations of climate change, which were proposed by local residents, are interesting. Hope and appeal to the state and its special programs predictably took the first place (76.3%). Also, 64.1% of respondents offered to finance various projects to create conditions for the preservation of traditional types of farms of the indigenous peoples of Yakutia. Surprisingly high was the proportion of those who believed that increasing the level of knowledge also makes it possible to prevent potential climate problems. 66.4% of respondents believe that it is necessary to raise environmental awareness of society, almost the same number (64.1%) to disseminate scientific knowledge on climate change.

The local population speaks more or less unambiguously about their personal prospects in the future. To the question “In the event of an increase in the phenomena of climate change in the coming years, what exactly are you going to do?” only 6.9% of respondents answered that if there is no opportunity to run the old farm, they are likely to leave their locality. 13.7% found it difficult to answer, and 79.4% said they would try to adapt.

Accordingly, the local population expresses a desire to remain at the place of permanent residence. Traditionally, it is believed that attachment to the native land is a characteristic feature for the indigenous inhabitants of Yakutia. In the economic structure of the republic, branches of traditional occupations play an important role in the life of the local population and require constant presence and continuity. Despite the vast territory of Yakutia, the area of truly habitable and economically developed lands is very limited. This forces residents of rural areas to stick to populated areas.

In unfavorable conditions caused, among other things, by critical situations due to natural causes, such as floods, local residents often choose adaptation practices that can be quite diverse. It should be noted that the population places its main hopes on state assistance in reducing the negative impact of the water element.

The village in the conditions of crisis manifestations: actual problems and solutions

Despite appealing to State aid, some measures taken by the authorities to protect the population are not understood by the local population. During the field work carried out in the village of Khotochu, it was found that one of the problems local residents called a ban on housing construction on sites located closer to the Lena River. We have already written above that the ban on housing construction in flooded areas is associated with inclusion in the republican List. In view of the fact that the general plan of the village has not yet been adopted, according to the assumptions of the residents, the plots could be issued on the plots located under the mountain. The villagers consider these plots to be far from the river, which requires the provision of water for vegetable gardens. Local residents associate the outflow of young people with the ban on the construction of housing in the village. So, for twenty years (from 2001 to 2021), the population decreased by 53 people. or by 18.6%. The availability of various programs to support young families allows you to take advantage of the opportunity to build housing in the village, but so far in the village of Khotochu, these programs are being implemented imperfectly due to the lack of a master plan. The delay in the adoption of the general plan is attributed by residents to the planned construction of a bridge across the Lena River. There have been several public meetings in the village regarding the transfer of the village to a non-flooded zone. According to the specialists of the municipal administration and the annual reports of the head of the Ministry of Defense, the project of planning the territory of the village of Khotochu and the project of surveying the territory of the village of Khotochu are under development.

“Currently, the talk about the transfer of the village has subsided. Probably, this is due to the fact that the issue with the construction of the bridge has not yet been resolved.... If there is a bridge that will flood the valley to the Kachikats, and they will tell us to move....” (interview, woman, 53 years old, S. Khotochu, September, 2021).

The program of socio-economic development of the Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg states that: “...the approach of the railway to the left-bank deposits increases the demand for gasification in them in order to raise the infrastructure security of villages: Khotochu, Tit Ebe, Kerdem, Krasny Ruchey, Kachikattsy ^[18]. This event was to be implemented within the framework of the social and economic development program of the MR "Khangalassky Ulus" for the period from 2012-2016. Within the framework of the republican program "Gasification of settlements and ensuring the reliability of the gas economy for 2012-2016", the construction of intra-village gas networks, including in the village of Khotochu, was envisaged. However, these measures have not been implemented in the village under consideration. The development program also planned the construction of a kindergarten in the village of Khotochu for 55 places and the construction of MBOU "Khotochunskaya OSH" for 30 students of the MO "Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg".

Residents also associate the lack of implementation of these measures with the future transfer of the village to a non-flooded area. To the question: "When the transfer is planned," the villagers replied that they themselves do not know, there is no information, and most likely, the issue will be resolved when the project "Construction of a bridge crossing over the Lena River" is resolved.

Another problem pointed out by residents is the removal from land use of significant areas of land in settlements, agricultural and forest lands, the development of landslide danger in the territories of settlements. According to the observations of the local community, as a result of climate change, there is a decrease in the size of the islands on which there are hayfields. Finding hayfields of residents on the islands is due to the fact that flooding of the meadow increases yields. It was the location of the hayfields in the floodplain of the Lena River that became the center of attraction for the development of nearby territories.

In connection with the flooding of recent years, due to the destruction of land, arable land was transferred under the act to forage land. The priority areas in land reclamation in the Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg are the operation, maintenance and overhaul of reclamation systems. The operated reclamation systems require annual maintenance and repair costs, including work on the preparation of reclamation systems for the passage of the spring flood. The most important tasks are the restoration of unused "abandoned" reclamation facilities; reconstruction and restoration of existing and construction of new hydro-reclamation systems ^[17].

It was noted above that the local population is concerned about the problem of drinking and food supply. The only alternative source of drinking water in the village of Khotochu is lake water. In summer, water is delivered by water trucks from Toyon Lake, and in winter, residents harvest ice in nearby lakes. Water transportation is a financially costly event, which becomes an additional source of expenses for the population. In connection with the flooding of the nasleg territory, glaciers – buluuses came out of the economic turnover of the villagers. This outbuilding used to be found in the courtyards of both the Russian and Yakut population. Fresh water and food supplies were stored in the buluuses, which made it possible to provide the population all year round. According to studies in the regions of Yakutia, glaciers are gradually losing their positions for two reasons: climatic and improving the quality of life. If the first case is associated with the degradation of permafrost, then the second is the replacement of glaciers with freezing bins ^{[16, p. 23-25]}.

It should be noted that in conditions of extreme dependence of the population of Yakutia on seasonal fisheries, the possibility of long-term storage of food and water resources with the help of natural factors has played and continues to play a critical role. The historically established system of consumption in rural areas of Yakutia often cannot react quickly enough to abrupt climatic changes and is forced to transform in stressful conditions. The mass use of refrigerated chests, in addition to the undeniable accompanying amenities, carries an additional financial burden (in the form of electricity charges) on the already meager budget of an average family in rural Yakutia. In addition, the limited capacity of the chests also imposes additional restrictions on the storage of necessary food and does not solve the problem of preserving fresh water in any way. The thawing of glaciers as a result of the melting of permafrost and, as a consequence, a certain shortage of water resources in the off-season and summer period also carries, as already noted above, additional financial costs.

Another equally urgent problem is the risk of loss of harvested firewood during floods. In the absence of centralized heat supply in the village of Khotochu, most of the population heat their houses with firewood. Due to the fact that during the flood, the harvested firewood was carried away by large water, many families were forced to bear additional financial costs for the purchase of new firewood. In this regard, the local population has changed the seasonality of the supply of firewood. Previously, traditionally firewood was harvested and imported in the spring, which is typical for most areas of Yakutia, now firewood is imported in summer or autumn with a reserve until spring. The problem of water and heat supply remains critically important for the development of the village of Khotochu, but the issue remains open until the adoption of the master plan.

In most of Yakutia, evacuation points are organized in flooded areas during the passage of the ice drift. The evacuation center of the village of Khotochu is located on a mountain (Fig. 2a, 2b).

Fig. 2a. Tent evacuation center. Meeting of the Government of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) with evacuated residents of the village of Khotochu. twothousandten

(provided by the administration of the MO “Zhemkonsky 1st nasleg")

Fig. 2b. Arrangement of the evacuation center of the village of Khotochu (photo by S.A. Grigoriev, 2021)

It should be noted that in most of the territory of Yakutia, tents are used for living in evacuation centers. The flood time is usually accompanied by unfavorable weather (rain, wind, snow, etc.) and living in a tent camp aggravates negative factors for the evacuated population (uncomfortable living conditions, deterioration of health, etc.). Since the village is in an extreme risk zone of flooding and flooding, the local administration is making special efforts to prevent and ensuring the safety of the population in case of flooding. In 2019, the Naslega administration built insulated trailers, one of which was allocated for the sanitary part. Thus, a special evacuation infrastructure has been built in the village, which is probably the first experience of this kind in the republic.

ConclusionBased on the conducted research, where the authors, having studied the available corpus of sources and materials, conducted field observations, questionnaires and interviews of the population, came to the conclusion that currently the residents of the village of Khotochu continue to be at risk.

This conclusion is based on the authors' analysis of target indicators based on the methodology for assessing socio-economic efficiency used during the implementation of the Federal Target Program "Development of the Water Management Complex of the Russian Federation in 2010-2020 and the index of integrated vulnerability assessment. These indicators indicate the social vulnerability of the village of Khotochu with a high risk of negative effects of water.

The study of events organized by authorities at various levels showed that local schemes and action plans are needed to minimize hydrological risks for the social development of the village. Accordingly, a comprehensive program of hydrological risk management and protection of the population is urgently needed. The authors recommend that the administration of the MO "Zhemkonsky 1st Nasleg" develop a document that includes all available measures to adapt to climate change and reduce the negative impact of the waters of the river.Lena in order to determine the greatest efficiency and priority of the measures planned for implementation. Taking into account the results of the conducted sociological research of the IGIiPMNS SB RAS and the practices of adaptation of S. Khotochu to climate change, given in this article, include a separate section "Protection from the effects of climate change" in the Program of socio-economic development of the municipality.

The accumulated experience in saving flooded settlements in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) shows that at the moment there are at least three ways to solve the problem: the first is a complete transfer of the village from the flooded territory to the non–flooded one - the village of Killakh, Olekminsky district; the second is a partial transfer of the village (moving only flooded farms within a radius of 4-5 km to an elevated part) - Khatystyr village, Aldansky district, Berezovka village, Srednekolymsky; the third – adaptation of structures of buildings and infrastructure facilities to possible flooding (construction of buildings on stilts) – Betenkes village of Verkhoyansky district. In view of the fact that the population of the village of Khotochu continues to remain on its territory, and also expresses an opinion about the desire to engage in traditional types of farming and not change their place of residence, adapting to the consequences of floods, we can assume all three of the above described scenarios to address the negative impact of water. However, the final choice will be made by the authorities of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), whose plans will be affected by a number of circumstances, the high cost of moving the village, the possible construction of a bridge over the river.Lena, etc.