Development and Use of the Expert Assessment Method for Ranking Threats to the National Security of the Russian Federation

Starovoitov Vladimir Gavrilovich ORCID: 0000-0002-7595-6379 Doctor of Economics Director of the Center of Monitoring and Assessment of Economic Security of the Institute of Economic Policy and National Security Problems, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation 125167, Ìîñêâà, ïð-êò Ëåíèíãðàäñêèé, ä. 49/2 vladstar1953@yahoo.com Other publications by this author     Krupnov Yurii Aleksandrovich ORCID: 0000-0002-9524-3747 Doctor of Economics Leading Research Fellow, Institute for Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Financial University) 125167, Russia, Moscow, 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., office with a note – Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems yukrupnov@mail.ru Other publications by this author     Eremin Vladimir Vladimirovich ORCID: 0000-0002-2144-3543 PhD in Economics Leading Research Fellow, Institute for Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Financial University) 125167, Russia, Moscow, 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., office marked – Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems villy.eremin@gmail.com Zolotarev Evgenii Vladimirovich ORCID: 0000-0002-5604-2774 PhD in Economics Leading Scientific Associate, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Financial University) 49/2 Leningradsky Ave., Moscow, 125167, Russia, office marked - Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems eugene.zolotarev@gmail.com Other publications by this author

Lapenkova Natalya Vladimirovna ORCID: 0000-0003-1644-4338 Junior Scientific Associate, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Financial University) 125167, Russia, Moscow, Leningradsky Ave., 49/2, office with a note – Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems ms.nvla@mail.ru Other publications by this author

1. Introduction.The state of national security is influenced by numerous factors: political, military, economic, social, man-made, etc.

These factors are associated with a significant number of emerging threats that need to be identified, monitored, analyzed, ranked in a timely manner, and measures taken to minimize and neutralize them ^[1].

However, not all links between factors and threats can be quantified and reflected in statistical information. In this case, the establishment of the desired links between factors and emerging threats is carried out by expert means, which determines the relevance of the use and development of expert approaches in the field of national security of the Russian Federation ^{[2, 3]}.

2. The state and development of expert approaches in ensuring national security. The advantages of the expert approach are:

– leveling of errors and errors of individual specialists;

– ensuring the validity and reliability of the results obtained;

– more objective, politically neutral results and collective responsibility of experts.

The disadvantages are:

– the appearance of possible unsolvable contradictions of experts;

– the prevalence of collective opinion over individual opinions, which can negatively affect the quality of forecasting events ^[4].

When forming a pool of experts, certain requirements are imposed on them, providing for the so-called "group reliability". That is, the answers of different subgroups of experts should be close, with their uniform distribution.

In addition, the selection of potential participants in the expert survey is carried out in accordance with the objectives of the examination. The subject area of the study, the competence of candidates, their horizons and erudition in related fields of science are taken into account. Most often, a special questionnaire of possible experts is used for this, on the basis of which their final group is formed (Rating of experts in the field of international relations // Center for Political Conjuncture, [Electronic resource] URL: https://cpkr.ru/issledovaniya/budushchee/reyting-ekspertov-v-sfere-mezhdunarodnykh-otnosheniy / (date of request: 10.10.2022)).

It is also necessary to take into account the following important aspects that affect the accuracy of the survey.

1. The relationship between the number of experts and the accuracy of the results of the group assessment.

Thus, with a reduction in the number of experts interviewed, the accuracy of the group assessment decreases as a result of an increase in the weight of the individual assessment of each expert. At the same time, with a significant increase in the number of respondents, it becomes difficult to identify their agreed position, including due to a certain dispersion of the weights of individual contradictory judgments, the contribution of each of which to the overall result is extremely important.

2. The expert group should consist of specialists of the same field, but of different specialties in order to prevent the manifestation of a tendentious "imposed" opinion.

3. The possible presence of personal communications between experts that negatively affect the accuracy of the results.

The main stages of the examination are as follows:

1. Formulation of the problem under study, definition of the purpose and objectives of the examination;

2. Formation of the main staff of expert specialists;

3. Distribution of experts into groups according to expert surveys;

4. Preparation of a questionnaire with the most formalized questions, implying an unambiguous answer or assigning points / ranks.

4. Conducting a survey of experts and receiving results from them;

5. Analysis of information received by experts, identification of factors that do not significantly affect the problem under study and exclusion of these factors from consideration;

6. Development of management decisions based on the results of the analysis of statistical data and expert information.

To numerically assess the impact of each factor (threat) on the final result (the state of national security), an appropriate weighting factor is used ^[5].

In Russian and world practice, a number of methods for finding weight coefficients are used, among them the most well-known method of direct placement, the method of hierarchy analysis ^{[6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]}.

This article discusses the existing approaches to the activities of expert groups based on the method of ranking factors ^[14].

Within the framework of this method, the studied factors are ordered according to the degree of manifestation of their properties and influence on the final goal in order of their increasing or decreasing: It is used in cases where it is impossible to quantify the factors determining the course of processes in socio-economic systems.

As a rule, ranking is applied if the following conditions are met:

– the factors (threats) have a different nature and essence, and are themselves complexly integral with respect to the lower ones;

– factors (threats) are ordered according to a certain attribute and the significance of the impact on the task being solved;

– within the framework of the study, it is not necessary to calculate the degree of influence of the factor on the integral indicator (final result) ^[15].

The development of the ranking method is the assignment of coefficients to factors. In this method, factors are evaluated on a certain point scale, for example, from 1 to N.

When using this method, the expert arranges the factors under consideration in the most rational order for him. After that, each factor is assigned a number from the natural series (rank), for example: "1" – the factor has the maximum influence, and "N" - the smallest. In this case, the number of ranks, as a rule, is equal to the number of ranked factors.

In the case of assigning the same rank to different factors, ranking normalization is required, which is carried out by assigning a fractional rank to factors having the same weight. This rank is calculated as the average value of the places that these factors have divided among themselves.

Here is an example of 9 factors, ranked as follows (Table 1):

Table 1 – Ranking of 9 factors

Source: compiled by the authors

Here, the 2nd and 5th factors received the 2nd and 3rd places, so their normalized ranks will be equal (2 + 3)/2 = 2,5. Respectively for the 3rd and 6th factors – (5 + 6)/2 = 5,5. In turn, 4,7,8 and 9 factors will be assigned 4, 7, 8 and 9 ranks, respectively.

The sum of the ranks will be: 1+2,5+5,5+4+2,5+5,5+7+8+9 = 45. The general formula is as follows: .

When examining with the involvement of a pool of experts , the ranking is as follows:

1) for each i-th factor, the sum of Sij ranks received from each expert is calculated;

2) each factor is assigned the resulting rank Ri.

As a result, a "rank matrix" is formed. For example, let's make a rank matrix for 9 factors and a pool of experts of 4 people, where Rij is the rank assigned to the i–th factor by the j-th expert.

If the values of the resulting factors coincide, they can also be normalized.

Table 2 – Rank matrix based on the results of a survey of 4 experts

Source: compiled by the authors

For greater clarity and exclusion of insignificant factors, it is possible to construct a corresponding diagram (Figure 1) based on the data of the "sum of ranks" column. Moreover, if the most significant factor was evaluated by a "unit", then the countdown begins not from "zero" along the ordinate axis, but from a number slightly larger than the maximum sum of ranks for individual factors.

The most favorable case of a rapid exponential drop in the degree of influence of factors is shown here. Figure 1 shows that the main influence on the studied problem is exerted by 1,2 and 4 factors, and the 7th, 5th, 6th, 3rd, 8th and 9th factors are insignificant and can be excluded from the study.

Figure 1 - Diagram of the decreasing degree of influence of factors

                              Source: compiled by the authors

Thus, due to the fact that the sources and prerequisites of security threats are extremely differentiated, complex, have different essence, as well as different direct and indirect effects on the state of national security, this method (ranking on a point scale) is the most suitable for use.

3. Survey of experts on the ranking of threats defined in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation For each strategic national priority defined in the National Security Strategy approved by Presidential Decree No. 400 of July 2, 2021, nine relevant threats can be identified:

– reduction of the population, reduction of the quality of life and human potential;

– wars and armed conflicts;

– undermining the constitutional order, national sovereignty, the legality of citizens' rights and freedoms;

– violation of the sovereignty of the state in the information space;

– violation of economic sovereignty, reduction of economic growth, competitiveness and sustainability ^[16];

– reduction of technological independence ^[17];

– reduction of environmental quality and aggravation of environmental management imbalances;

– undermining the unity of the peoples of the Russian Federation, eroding the primordial universal principles and socially significant guidelines for social development ^[18];

– weakening of the position of the Russian Federation as one of the influential centers of the modern world (Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 02.07.2021 No. 400 "On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation").

Their impact on socio-economic development and ensuring the national security of the state is a dynamic process that is unstable in different periods and requires assessment from public authorities in a specific time period to take proactive measures to neutralize negative consequences for the economy and society ^[19].

However, the listed threats, due to their complexity, complexity and the presence of many constituent factors, are difficult to statistically assess and mathematically model ^[20].

In this regard, to rank such threats, it is advisable to use the method of expert assessments with the involvement of a specially selected group of specialists in the field of economic security, including employees of state authorities, leading scientific and educational institutions of the country.

To this end, the authors conducted an online survey of experts on the ranking of threats identified in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation for each strategic national priority. Questionnaires were sent to 68 experts from among the teaching staff and research teams of leading universities in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Perm, Voronezh and other cities. As a result, responses were received from 23 of them, including:

– 17 doctors of economic sciences;

– 1 doctor of Physical and mathematical Sciences;

– 2 candidates of economic sciences;

– 3 graduate students.

Among them:

– 11 heads of departments of scientific and educational institutions specializing in risk analysis and research of economic security problems;

– 12 leading and junior researchers engaged in research on international economic relations and threats to national security.

Thus, the selected circle of experts is reasonable and sufficient to conduct an objective assessment of the impact of security threats and socio-economic factors on the state of national security of the country at the present time.

A questionnaire (Appendix No. 1) was used as a research tool, in which it was proposed to assess the degree of influence of each of the nine above-mentioned threats to national security on the overall state of national security of the state by assigning unique ranks from 1 to 9.

The conducted research reflected the following results (according to the degree of influence of threats on the general state of national security, from the greatest to the least): Table 3.

Table 3 - Threats to the national security of the Russian Federation by the degree of influence on the general state of national security (from the greatest to the least)

Source: compiled by the authors on the basis of (Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 02.07.2021 No. 400 "On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation")

Thus, the overwhelming majority of respondents identified wars and armed conflicts as the most significant and urgent threat to national security, and the least dangerous at the current time is the decline in environmental quality and the aggravation of environmental management imbalances.

This is largely due to the sharp aggravation of international contradictions, military actions in Ukraine, the escalation of sanctions and the policy of restraining the development of Russia, China and some other countries. This brings general political instability, limited access to technology and markets in general ^{[18, 21]}.

Currently, environmental quality and environmental safety issues are relegated to a secondary plan. Moreover, in conditions of a shortage of Russian energy carriers and embargoes imposed, many European Union countries are ready to disregard the current environmental standards and switch to energy supply using coal, which will significantly worsen air quality.

4. Conclusions1. The method of expert assessments proposed in the article for ranking threats on a point scale allows determining the most significant and urgent threats to national security based on the knowledge and experience of highly professional experts.

2. Since the challenges and sources of threats to national security are extremely differentiated, complex, have different essence, as well as different direct and indirect effects on the state of national security of the country, the method (ranking on a point scale) is the most suitable for use in the field of national security.

3. The technology of forming an expert group and conducting an online survey of experts can be used in Russian practice to solve problems of ensuring the national security of the country.

Application