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Historical informatics
Reference:

Development of designs of four-seat airplanes in the XX century

Kuzmin Yurii Viktorovich

PhD in Physics and Mathematics

Senior researcher, S.I.Vavilov Institute for the History of Science and Technology, RAS

125315, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Baltiiskaya, 14

ykuzmin@rambler.ru
Other publications by this author
 
 

DOI:

10.7256/2585-7797.2022.3.38633

EDN:

AZFGHQ

Received:

16-08-2022

Published:

11-10-2022

Abstract: The work is devoted to the analysis of a specific sub-branch of airplane construction and, at the same time, to the search of general laws of technology development. For the first time, a global picture of the development of designs of four-seat airplanes in the XX century is given, priority designs are identified. It is shown that the development of four-seat airplanes goes through two stages: the search (until the end of the 1940s), when popular airplane schemes periodically replaced each other, the airplane characteristics varied greatly, and the second stage of mature technology. In the second half of the XX century, both the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of four-seat airplanes remain almost constant and attempts to improve them did not lead to an increase in demand. The change of technology generations was replaced by coexistence, when each type of construction worked out during the previous period found its market niche. The division of phases, the transition from generation’s change to their coexistence, is clearly visible when analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data of airplanes. A paradoxical reaction of aircraft manufacturers to the decline in sales was found, expressed in increased design activity and an attempt to offer products with better technical characteristics. The inefficiency of such a reaction was shown. It is revealed that, contrary to widespread opinion, the change of technological solutions in production is faster than in development. As a result, most of the market is captured not by pioneers and not by retrogrades, but by followers – those who use modern, but already tested technologies in their products. At the same time, attempts to create and offer aircraft to consumers in a methodology that is no longer in demand have persisted unsuccessfully for decades.

Keywords:

airplane industry, aviation history, airplane design developement, general aviation, economics of the aviation industry, history of the XX century, historical databases, statistical analysis, production and development, psychology of consumption
This article is automatically translated.

We will calculate the dynamics of the average output values of indicator I for screw four-seat aircraft with all known parameters.

Figure 29 shows that the period of development, accompanied by significant fluctuations in the indicator, was replaced by an amazing constancy from 1960 to the early 1990s, despite the many twists and turns that the industry experienced during this time.


Figure 29. Change in the efficiency index of four-seat aircraft (average production) over time

The decline in the index value in the 1990s is explained both by the development of the engine industry - and some excess power caused by this, and by a decrease in weight return due to the increase in safety requirements, which we discussed in the previous section.

The analysis of the dynamics of the efficiency index once again proves the thesis that after reaching a level sufficient for most consumers, extensive technology development stops. Ergonomic indicators, safety, and resource continue to grow, but the basic numerical characteristics of products change little, and attempts to go beyond the established limits rarely lead to market success.

ConclusionThe article reveals the features of the development of designs of four-seat aircraft.

Since the early 1950s, their characteristics have "frozen". Neither the speeds, nor the masses, nor the specific characteristics changed significantly. The dominant layouts were determined, and their ratio in production and development also remained almost unchanged for several decades.  The range increased slightly – but this achievement should be attributed to the success of engine building and reduction of specific fuel consumption.

This confirms the thesis that the technology, which has reached a sufficient level of satisfaction of needs for most users, is moving from extensive development with a pronounced generational change to a stable state, while even a small formal regression can be observed: the share of "outdated" layouts in production is growing somewhat, crowding newer technical solutions.

The only significant change in the characteristics of the new models (speed increase, introduction of an aerodynamically perfect mid-plane scheme) occurred in the 1980s just during the global decline in aviation production. But such attempts to offer a product with better characteristics in difficult times do not lead to market success.

It is revealed that in the field of wing layouts, chassis schemes, structural materials used, both "pioneers", the first to introduce new products, and "laggards", stubbornly adhering to previously developed schemes, are at a disadvantage.

It is concluded that in order to achieve market success, it is advisable to use new technologies, but already worked out by the pioneers of the industry, Persistent adherence to outdated solutions or the introduction of a large number of technological innovations at once does not lead to success in the market.

References
1. Kuzmin, Yu.V. (2022). Development and design of four-seater airplanes in XXth century. Statistical analysis. Historical informatics. No. 2. P. 87-110. DOI: 10.7256/2585-7797.2022.2.38184.
2. Simpson, R. (2005). The General Aviation Handbook. London: Midland. 320 p.
3. Sobolev, L.B. (2016). A high mission of general aviation. Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. No. 3. P. 4-16.
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Peer Review

Peer reviewers' evaluations remain confidential and are not disclosed to the public. Only external reviews, authorized for publication by the article's author(s), are made public. Typically, these final reviews are conducted after the manuscript's revision. Adhering to our double-blind review policy, the reviewer's identity is kept confidential.
The list of publisher reviewers can be found here.

The past twentieth century turned out to be rich in events: these are two world wars that have no analogues in the history of mankind, these are various social projects, these are various scientific and technical achievements. The twentieth century is rightly called the century of cinema, but at the same time it can fairly be called the century of aviation. Recall that back in the late 19th century, mail from Europe to Australia went for up to six months, and today long-haul aviation has turned the globe into a neighborhood society. In this regard, it is of interest to study the historical experience of the formation of aviation. These circumstances determine the relevance of the article submitted for review, the subject of which is the development of designs of four-seat aircraft in the XX century. The author sets out to analyze the dynamics of flight characteristics, consider changes in the cockpit, landing gear and other important parts of the aircraft. The work is based on the principles of analysis and synthesis, reliability, objectivity, the methodological basis of the research is a systematic approach, which is based on the consideration of the object as an integral complex of interrelated elements. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the very formulation of the topic: the author seeks to characterize the changes in the design of four-seat aircraft during the XX century. Considering the bibliographic list of the article, first of all, its brevity should be noted: in total, the list of references includes only 6 different sources and studies. The undoubted advantage of the reviewed article is the involvement of foreign literature, including in English and French, which is largely determined by the very substitution of the topic. A number of works turned out to be out of the author's field of view, for example, L.B. Sobolev ("The Great Mission of Small Aviation", Economic analysis: Theory and Practice, 2016, number 3), etc. Note that the bibliography is important both from a scientific and educational point of view: after reading the text of the article, readers can refer to other materials on her topic. In general, in our opinion, the bibliography of the article needs to be supplemented. The style of writing the article can be attributed to scientific, at the same time understandable not only to specialists, but also to a wide readership, to anyone interested in both the history of aviation in general and the development of small aircraft in particular. The appeal to the opponents is presented at the level of the collected information received by the author during the work on the topic of the article. The structure of the work is characterized by a certain logic and consistency, it can be distinguished by an introduction, the main part, and conclusion. At the beginning, the author defines the relevance of the topic, shows that "the characteristics of aircraft in the second half of the 20th century are surprisingly constant, and attempts to offer customers aircraft with improved flight characteristics over and over again do not lead to success." The author draws attention to the fact that "the only significant change in the characteristics of the new models (an increase in speed, the introduction of an aerodynamically perfect mid-plane scheme) occurred in the 1980s just during the global downturn in aviation production." It is noteworthy that, as noted in the peer-reviewed article, "the areas of wing layouts, landing gear schemes, and structural materials used are at a disadvantage for both the "pioneers" who are the first to introduce new products, and the "laggards" who stubbornly adhere to previously developed schemes." The main conclusion of the article is that "persistent adherence to outdated solutions or the introduction of a large number of technological innovations at once does not lead to success in the market." The article submitted for review is devoted to an urgent topic, is provided with tables and figures, will arouse readers' interest, and its materials can be used both in training courses and as part of a small aviation development strategy. However, there are comments on the article: 1) It is necessary to expand the bibliography, as well as bring it in line with the requirements of GOST. 2) The text should be subtracted: so, the author immediately follows Figure 28 with Figure 47, etc. After correcting these comments, the article may be recommended for publication. Comments of the editor-in-chief dated 08/24/2022: "The author has fully taken into account the comments of the reviewers and corrected the article. The revised article is recommended for publication."
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