The Current Geopolitical Position of the Republic of Korea: at the Crossroads of Interests of the United States and China

Farkhetdinova Elmira Tagirovna Postgraduate Student, Department of American Studies, St. Petersburg State University 199034, Russia, Sankt-Peterburg, g. Saint Petersburg, ul. Universitetskaya Naberezhnaya, 7-9 farhetdinova14@mail.ru

IntroductionThroughout almost its entire history, from the ancient Korean states (Ancient Joseon, Silla, Baekje and Goguryeo states) to the present, the Republic of Korea has been greatly influenced by major powers in the implementation of its foreign policy.

In 1948, there was a split in Korea, the apogee of which was the Korean War of 1950-1953, which led to the formation of two new states – the Republic of Korea and the DPRK. As a result of the split, the Republic of Korea lost its border with a major neighbor, the PRC, acquired a neighborhood with the DPRK and retained access to the Yellow, Japanese and East China Seas.

At the present stage, the peculiarities of the geopolitical situation, the neighborhood with the DPRK, direct involvement in the process of resolving the North Korean nuclear missile problem, significant economic and technological potential increase interest in the Republic of Korea from two great world powers that have already obviously entered into a confrontation for influence both in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world – the United States and China. This article is aimed at identifying the current foreign policy priorities of the Republic of Korea (ROK), taking into account the factor of its special geopolitical position, namely, being at the intersection of the interests and rivalry of two world great powers – the United States and China. The proximity of the ROK to the DPRK, from which the nuclear missile threat emanates, the indirect neighborhood (direct neighborhood in the past and common history at certain time stages) with the PRC, the deployment of American military bases on its territory and close allied relations with the United States inevitably predetermine the position of the ROK at the junction of the US-China rivalry.

The concept of the geopolitical code and its implementation in relation to the Republic of KoreaWhen analyzing the foreign policy priorities of the Republic of Korea, the concept of the geopolitical code described in the works of political geographers K. Flint and P. Taylor can be considered instrumental ^{[1, p.52]}.

These scientists introduced the concept of the geopolitical code into scientific circulation and formulated five marker questions for determining the geopolitical code of the state. The ideas of scientists were developed in the works of the Russian researcher – I. Okuneva. In particular, he characterized the geopolitical code as the most important characteristic reflecting the position of the state in the international arena and the trends of its policy in interaction with other international actors ^[2]. The geopolitical code is the basis of a country's positioning in the world, capable of changing to the current political situation of the state and world politics.

According to K. Flint, in order to reveal the geopolitical code of the state, it is necessary to answer the following questions: who are the current and potential allies; who are the current and potential enemies; how can current and potential allies be supported; how can current enemies and emerging threats be countered; how can the four provisions above be interpreted for one's own population and the global community? ^{[2, c.68-69]}

Applying the methodology of K. Flint, the following characteristics of the geopolitical code of the Republic of Kazakhstan can be distinguished. In terms of current and potential allies: the United States has remained the only military and political ally of the Republic of Korea since the conclusion of the alliance treaty in 1953. As has been repeatedly emphasized in the White Diplomatic Books of the Republic of Korea, the countries maintain allied relations in the sphere of economy, politics and security ^{[3, pp.84-97]}. In addition, the White Papers also indicate that the United States is the guarantor of security on the Korean peninsula, deterring the North Korean threat, and is deploying its troops on the territory of the Republic of Korea ^{[3, pp.84-85]}. Since May 2022, the USA, the Republic of Kazakhstan and Japan have been actively participating in the development of a trilateral dialogue, which will deepen security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region in the face of threats from China and North Korea ^[4]. It is important to emphasize that with the intensification of bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and the United States, Seoul's interest in the United States is no longer limited to the security sphere, but also includes the trade and economic sphere. But at the same time, Seoul's interest in China as the largest trading power, the second world economy after the United States and a country at the center of many regional and global value chains has also increased. At the beginning of 2023, China is the largest trading partner of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the trade turnover of the states is $ 244 billion). Both countries are part of the integration block of the VREP, zero rates of import customs duties apply to half of the turnover, which facilitates their trade. Moreover, Chinese investments are of great importance for the functioning of large South Korean enterprises ^[5]. Having no allied relations with the PRC, the Republic of Korea nevertheless has maintained a high interest in developing trade relations with the PRC for at least two decades.

Regarding the current and potential enemies of the ROK: the DPRK always remains a threat to the security of the ROK. After the end of the Korean War in 1953, the Republic of Korea and the DPRK failed to sign a peace treaty, the countries limited themselves to an armistice, thus at the moment the two Korean states are formally still at war. President of the Republic of Korea Moon Jae-in has identified the improvement of relations with the DPRK and the resolution of the Korean issue as one of the most important goals of his presidency ^[6]. However, it was possible to achieve a warming of relations only for a short time, the DPRK continued to expand ballistic missile units and increase exercises to strike targets of the Republic of Korea, which was reflected in the White Books on the Defense of the Republic of Korea: The DPRK has repeatedly been called a "threat to national security" ^[7]. For the first time in six years, the DPRK was named an enemy of the ROK in the 2022 Defense White Paper, which indicated violations by the North Korean side of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement and named the fact of increasing the total plutonium stockpile for use in nuclear weapons ^[8].

Japan, a state in the vicinity of the borders of the Republic of Korea, has traditionally been treated with caution, taking into account the historical foundation in the form of military occupation, non-recognition of war crimes by the Japanese army and "comfort women" ^[9]. The territorial dispute over the ownership of the Dokdo Islands in the Republic of Korea or Takeshima in Japan, increasing nationalism also negatively affect bilateral relations. However, despite this, Japan is a necessary link in the "USA–South Korea-Japan" security triangle in the Pacific region and an active trade partner of the Republic of Korea ^{[10, p. 80]}. It is important to note that in 2021, Japan appears in the "White Diplomatic Book of the Republic of Korea" for the second year in a row as the closest neighbor with whom it is necessary to develop bilateral relations, jointly resolving historical problems ^{[3, p.98]}.

The Republic of Korea can support current and potential allies, as well as counter current enemies and emerging threats by regularly holding diplomatic dialogues and participating in multilateral meetings to solve regional and global problems. Active participation in maintaining regional security within the framework of the alliance with the United States, including through participation in joint military exercises of the United States and Japan, contributes to strengthening the union of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the United States ^[4]. It is important to note that the Republic of Kazakhstan is expanding the number of potential allies with the help of its soft power tools, such as k-pop and tourism, which contributes to greater cultural exchange and strengthening of relations. Within the framework of the foreign economic policy, the Republic of Kazakhstan can increase the volume of assistance and investments to countries in need, while strengthening economic relations with the PRC and the Asia-Pacific countries, ASEAN, which correspond to its interests in expanding the export market of Korean goods ^{[11, pp.243-244]}.

Let's consider the last point in the definition of the geopolitical code according to K. Flint – the interpretation of the provisions above for its own population and the global community. The Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan publishes various official documents in open access, which set out the goals of the country's foreign policy, identified friendly countries and threats to the security of the state. The national security strategy outlines national security objectives, including its approach to addressing various security issues, such as North Korean nuclear weapons and regional instability. The annual White Paper on Foreign Policy provides an overview of Kazakhstan's geopolitical priorities, as well as Kazakhstan's relations with neighboring countries, the country's role in international organizations ^[3]. The Defense White Paper summarizes the policy and strategies of the National Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan, including its efforts to strengthen military capabilities, strengthen regional stability and deter potential threats ^[8]. It should be noted that the Korean public opinion is dominated by a cautious attitude towards the PRC. According to the results of a population survey in 2020, "the rise of China as a great power" ranked fifth (41.7%) among the main alleged threats to South Korea's national interests in the next decade. When asked what position Seoul should take in the developing confrontation between the United States and China, only 11.1% of the population supported strengthening relations with China, 24.9% – for rapprochement with the United States, and the majority (63.9%) took a neutral position, believing that it is necessary to maintain close relations with both the United States and China. China ^[12].

The factors that influenced the formation of the geopolitical code of the Republic of Korea include the following. Firstly, these are the features of the historical background: the occupation of the Korean peninsula by Japan (1910-1945), the Korean War (1950-1953), where Seoul was supported by United UN peacekeeping troops with the participation of the United States, the South Korean economic miracle made possible, among other things, by the United States, the nuclear threat from the DPRK. Secondly, it is the presence of the instinct of national self-preservation and the desire to unite the Korean people within one state (ROK), adherence to the traditions of Confucianism, nationalism based on ethnic homogeneity. According to the views of South Koreans and the political elite of the Republic of Korea, the unification of the Korean people and peaceful coexistence on the Korean peninsula is one of the most important goals of the policy of the Republic of Korea.

According to I. Okunev, the traditional variables of the geopolitical code are scale and orientation. The scale indicates the local, regional and global level of national interests and influence in the world. Orientation is a global landmark of the country (Europe, USA, Russia, China and others).

With regard to the Republic of Korea, the scale is concentrated at the local level, since the problem of the Korean peninsula and relations with neighboring states are in the foreground. These attitudes, in particular, are recorded in the White Diplomatic Book ^{[3, p.5]}. The Republic of Kazakhstan positions itself as an open and non-conflict state committed to the use of soft power. The rapid economic growth of the Republic of Korea, regional and global changes have put South Koreans in a dilemma of choice: nationalism or globalism, liberal democracy or authoritarianism. These contradictory values and ideas also had a great influence on the foreign policy of the Republic of Korea ^[13]. The Republic of Korea has the potential and the desire to become a regional leader. A vivid confirmation of this is the initiative – the New Southern Policy proposed by President Moon Jae-in in 2017, aimed at strengthening ties with the ASEAN countries and India. The strengthening of relations with ASEAN and India is caused by the desire to develop trade and economic ties, thereby reducing excessive reliance on the American and Chinese economies in order to minimize the risks of pressure from the United States and China in the future. It is noteworthy that the New Northern Policy, put forward by Moon Jae–in also in 2017 - the initiative to strengthen relations with Russia, the countries of Central Asia, Mongolia and Eastern Europe, has not received further development, unlike the South ^[14].

The Republic of Korea in the context of the conflict of interests of the USA and ChinaThe history of the formation of allied relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the United States brings us back to the events of the distant past: in 1953, the signing of the post-war Security Treaty of 1953 took place, and in 1978, an Agreement on the creation of Joint Forces was concluded.

In the post-war period, the political and economic dependence of the Republic of Korea on the United States developed, which, in many ways, predetermined the Western-liberal model of development of the Republic of Korea. At the same time, it is important to note that over time, due to the gradual strengthening of the South Korean economy, which made it possible to claim greater autonomy in the alliance with the United States, changes began to occur in the geopolitical code of the Republic of Korea. This became especially noticeable under Presidents Kim Jae-jung (1998-2003) and Noh Moo-hyun (2003-2008).

At the same time, the opposite factors also influenced the evolution of the geopolitical code of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Thus, as the threat to regional security from the DPRK increases: in 2010, there was an open military conflict between the Republic of Korea and the DPRK (the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeongdo Island), Seoul returned to its former dependence on Washington. Conservative Presidents Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) and Park Geun-hye (2013-2017), in close cooperation with the United States, came to a tough approach towards Pyongyang ^{[13, pp. 12-13]}. But again the influence of multidirectional factors began to manifest itself. Thus, the deterioration of relations with the DPRK and the 2008 negotiations on the terms of a Trade agreement with the United States negatively affected the reputation of Lee Myung-bak and public opinion towards the United States (disputes over the import of "unsafe" beef from the United States, protectionist sentiments) ^{[15, p.84]}.

As for relations with China, since their official establishment in 1992, they have been consistently strengthened due to the incredible growth of trade and economic cooperation. In 2004, the trade turnover with China exceeded the indicators of the United States, which marked the beginning of the divergence of interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the economic and security spheres ^{[13, p.215]}. This formed the following property of the geopolitical code of the Republic of Korea: the constant search for balance in foreign relations between the United States as an ally and China as an important trading partner. During the presidency of Park Geun-hye, the signing of a free trade agreement with China in 2015 contributed to the further intensification of South Korean-Chinese relations.

At the same time, the fact of close allied relations between the ROK and the United States and the presence of American military bases in the ROK has always remained an irritating factor in Sino-South Korean relations. Thus, this problem was most acutely manifested during the conflict between the PRC and the ROK in connection with the deployment of the American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile system on the territory of the ROK in 2016. Under strong pressure from the United States, including under the threat of revising previous agreements, including the Free Trade Agreement, as well as due to the aggravation of the North Korean nuclear missile problem, Seoul in 2017 agreed to the deployment of an American missile defense system ^[16]. Beijing regarded the deployment of the US missile defense system as "aimed at deterring the PRC" and immediately reacted, introducing comprehensive restrictive measures against South Korean producers and show business. This situation has become a catalyst for the deterioration of bilateral relations, and at the same time, such a clear weakness in front of the PRC has increased the discontent of the South Korean population. The conflict with the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system indirectly expressed the following property of the geopolitical code of the Republic of Kazakhstan: the local level of national interests and influence of the Republic of Kazakhstan due to dependence on the foreign policy decisions of the United States and China.

The issue of resolving the inter-Korean conflict has often put the Republic of Korea before a choice: whether to adhere to the position of the PRC, the largest economic ally of the DPRK, or the position of the United States, an ally and partner in the alliance. In 2005, the DPRK officially declared the presence of nuclear weapons, which caused a harsh reaction from the United States, but Seoul at the six-party talks adopted the position of the Russian Federation and the PRC, expressing a firm commitment to the process of reducing tensions and reducing armaments within the framework of the dialogue process ^{[17, pp.51-53]}. But Mu Hyun (2003-2008) sought to achieve a balance between an alliance with the United States and multilateral cooperation with other states (including China), between globalization and national integrity. This balancing policy is a strategy that seeks to avoid excessive deviation of the diplomatic strategy towards one particular State, and at the same time adheres to a flexible diplomatic position in interstate relations. During the presidency of Noh Moo-hyun, the following property clearly appeared in the geopolitical code of South Korea: the desire for autonomy and a more responsible defensive role on the peninsula. Under the leadership of Obama and South Korean Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, the US and South Korea actually adopted a plan of joint action in the conflict with the DPRK, called "strategic patience". One of the main components of which is full readiness for the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program, which included the PRC. China played an irreplaceable role in the settlement of the inter-Korean conflict as the largest economic and political partner of the DPRK, which had levers of pressure on the DPRK.

However, after the DPRK's nuclear tests in January 2016, the United States and the Republic of Korea pushed the UN Security Council to adopt resolutions (UN Security Council Resolution No. 2270 in March 2016 and UN Security Council Resolution 2321 in November 2016) expanding international sanctions ^{[18, p.10]}. Beijing has not supported the policy of strict sanctions against the DPRK, repeatedly saying that international sanctions are aimed at civilians and lead to a deadlock in negotiations on nuclear weapons. Initially, Moon Jae-in held the same position and tried to achieve a truce and denuclearization of North Korea through dialogue and peace negotiations. Despite Moon Jae-in's initiative to improve relations with the DPRK, he failed to implement the planned economic and humanitarian projects. As a result, new weapons tests by North Korea prompted the Government of the Republic of Korea to focus on strengthening the security of the Korean peninsula and the alliance with the United States. In addition to regular joint exercises with the United States, cooperation with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), in 2021 Moon Jae-in and Joe Biden signed a joint statement on cooperation and the future of the alliance, where China and their actions in Taiwan are sharply criticized ^[19]. It is important to note that President Yoon Seok-el adheres to his election promises that the alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea will become closer, the alliance will work together against the North Korean and Chinese threats ^[20].

The United States and China cannot stay away from the problem on the Korean island and allow South Korea to solve this problem on its own. Beijing fears due to the territorial proximity of the DPRK and the "domino effect", so the build-up of the DPRK's nuclear potential could lead to the appearance of nuclear weapons in the region: Seoul, Tokyo and possibly even Taiwan. Washington cannot ignore the problem with the DPRK because of the importance of the region itself, which has become the core of US policy in the Asia-Pacific region. There is an opinion of experts that the United States is artificially fueling the Korean conflict in order to restrain the rise of China in the region ^[21]. The American media openly argued that the growing tension in relations with the DPRK creates opportunities for promoting American military and political interests in the region. Protection from a possible attack by North Korea is an excellent reason for increasing the arms race ^{[13, pp.112-114]}.

The growing confrontation between the United States and China, which began under the administration of Donald Trump and continued under Joe Biden, is accompanied by increased pressure from these two countries on the Republic of Korea ^{[22, p.25]}. Pressure occurs in several directions: on the part of the United States and China, with attempts by each of the countries to "lure" the Republic of Korea to their side.

The decision to join or not to participate in regional international organizations is also a component of the geopolitical code of the state. In this regard, the issues of Kazakhstan's participation in such associations and initiatives as QUAD, the Belt and Road, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the VREP deserve analysis. Thus, the issue of joining the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) flared up with renewed vigor with the inauguration of Yun Seok-yong and his statements about his interest in deploying new American weapons systems. The unspoken goal of the organization, which includes the United States, Australia, India and Japan, is to contain the rise of China. For Beijing, this organization is the "Indo–Pacific NATO" and a hidden threat to the security of the region ^{[23, p.231]}. However, the Republic of Korea does not yet intend to join the hostile organization of its largest economic partner. Despite the fact that rapprochement with Japan makes sense within the framework of security in the region, historical issues and the memory of Japan's military occupation have not yet been forgotten.

It is noteworthy that the Belt and Road initiative proposed by the PRC in 2013 received support from the Park Geun-hye administration, however, due to the conflict over the American THAAD missile defense, all agreements related to the Belt and Road were frozen. During the presidency of Moon Jae-in (2017-2022), the parties agreed to revise the Memorandum of Understanding on the South Korean Eurasian Initiative and the “Belt and Road”. The initiative of the People's Republic of China is consistent with South Korean initiatives aimed at strengthening relations with the countries of Eurasia ("New Northern Policy") and the countries of ASEAN and India ("New Southern Policy"). The reason for the participation of the Republic of Korea in this project is to overcome the barrier represented by the DPRK, enter new markets and be included in major infrastructure and investment projects ^[24]. For the United States, the Chinese initiative is a serious threat to the reduction of influence and presence in the countries of Central Asia and other regions. Initially, the positive reactions of the Trump administration were replaced by harsh criticism and a trade war. The Republic of Korea is once again forced to carefully choose its position on this initiative. On the one hand, there are reasonable fears in the Republic of Korea about even greater economic dependence on the PRC, reinforced by anti-Chinese sentiments caused by Beijing's economic pressure in 2016-2017. On the other hand, the Republic of Korea sees this as an opportunity to implement large-scale projects of Korean business and even as a step towards national reunification, with the future opening of the DPRK market.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership, created under the auspices of the United States and aimed at integrating the economies of the Asia-Pacific countries, interested the Republic of Korea, but accession to this organization has not yet occurred. There are several reasons. Firstly, Seoul already has bilateral free trade agreements with almost all participants of the partnership. According to the Korean Institute of International Economic Policy, joining the TPP does not bring geopolitical and economic benefits ^[25]. Secondly, President Lee Myung-bak, fearing an increase in anti-American sentiment in society that arose after the signing of the trade agreement with the United States, did not dare to join the TPP. Thirdly, during the presidency of Park Geun-hye, preference was given to concluding a trade deal with China, which slowed down the consideration of other agreements. Under the administration of Moon Jae-in, the US withdrawal from the TPP, possible competition with Japan when joining the organization led to the postponement of the deal.

In November 2020, the Republic of Korea signed the Free Trade Agreement VREP (Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership), which provided Kazakhstan with access to the markets of China, ASEAN countries and the Asia-Pacific region. It is important to note that by joining this organization, the Republic of Kazakhstan has achieved not only diversification of foreign trade, but also rapprochement with China and Japan within the framework of the free trade agreement.

In general, at the present stage of escalating rivalry between the United States and China, being in one of the key regions from the point of view of ensuring the security of the United States and being geographically close to the PRC, the Republic of Korea unwittingly found itself in the center of the rivalry between the United States and China, where it is necessary to take sides, sometimes to the detriment of its own interests. A striking example where the Republic of Korea was under pressure from rival states is the deployment of THAAD missile defense systems, which, on the one hand, led to serious Sino-South Korean friction, and, on the other, to threats of revision of past agreements by the United States.

ConclusionThe analysis demonstrated that the Republic of Korea strives to maintain a balance in its relations with the great Powers, presents itself as a friendly country and does not use explicitly hostile rhetoric towards any States.

Over the past two decades, the Republic of Korea has been forced to balance between the United States and China, to maintain a delicate balance between the two powers. At the same time, if at the initial stage the need for balancing between the United States and China was caused by different positions and interests of the parties in the settlement of the North Korean nuclear missile problem, at the current stage it is due to the growing regional (in the Asia-Pacific region) and global rivalry between the United States and China. At the same time, Seoul strictly adhered until recently to the desire to pursue a foreign policy independent of the great powers (and, first of all, this concerns the United States as an ally, which has traditionally had a great influence on the ROK). The foreign policy of the Republic of Korea is aimed at moving towards autonomy, promoting its interests in the world economy and international trade, and national unification.

There are also serious constraints to the full autonomy of Seoul's foreign policy – since the North Korean issue does not lose its relevance, and security issues occupy an important niche in the foreign policy strategy of the Republic of Korea, the need to maintain close allied relations with the United States and maintain security guarantees remains. At the moment, the priority of Kazakhstan's foreign policy is to ease tensions with North Korea (Seoul is interested in Washington's appropriate, moderate policy in this direction, which, by the way, does not correspond to the course taken by Biden towards the DPRK), creating a basis for peaceful coexistence with the DPRK, maintaining strong economic relations with the PRC, as well as strengthening the role of the Republic of Korea as one of the regional leaders. However, it is worth emphasizing that despite the claims to autonomy in foreign policy, Seoul is still weak before the pressure of major powers in the field of security and economy. The Republic of Korea has long adhered to a fairly obvious pro-American position, which can be traced in the foreign policy decisions of the state, despite the promises of a departure from American patronage in the inaugural speeches of some presidents. The "hand of Washington" is also manifested in Seoul's reaction to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Moreover, there is reason to believe that, taking into account the changing geopolitical picture of the world against the background of increased confrontation between the United States and Russia and, accordingly, the formation of the "alliance of democracies" camp (which obviously includes the Republic of Kazakhstan) against non-democracies (which includes not only Russia, but also China), the pro-American bias in the foreign policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan can be strengthened.