The model of challenges to trust in the modern Russian Federation

Introduction

 The modern era is an era of challenges, expectations, hopes, growing contradictions and uncertainties. The economic system gives preference to profits for the rich, rather than employment for the masses. Poverty, isolation and neglect are fundamental social problems, simple solutions to which are not expected. The global economy is running on growing debt, which threatens to return to financial chaos, but at the same time, governments are significantly narrowing their room for maneuver in the face of an increasing loss of confidence. Back in 2019 The President of the Davos WEF, B. Brende, drew the attention of its participants to the fact that the aggravation of existing contradictions, as well as a sharp increase in challenges, trends and risks, generate a decrease in immunity to dampen them.

In M. Deutsch's interpretation, trust is a reaction to a risk that the actor cannot control ^[27]. That is, it is a way of intentionally recognizing that some things are beyond the control of the subject, but he can to some extent try to predict the expected results of their manifestation. N. Luhmann also understood trust in this aspect, believing that it is trust that allows a subject to make decisions and talk about the activities of others in society ^[52]. He based his conclusions on the fact that trust allows you to capture the characteristic features not only of those with whom the subject is dealing, but also of the world around him, which, again, the subject cannot control ^[52]. This methodological approach reminds us that trust potentially exposes the subject to some vulnerability ^[11]. There is another conclusion: the greatest "damage to trust" potentially occurs when subjects who have lost trust in other subjects have difficulty restoring it, even if they all realize that they will benefit from it ^[10].

Trust does not exist in a vacuum, it always experiences certain impacts (challenges), which are nothing more than a set of circumstances that do not carry a threatening nature at a given time, but require attention and unconditional reaction. A challenge is a problem that exists today, may appear in the near or distant future within the boundaries of the area under consideration, therefore, it cannot be ignored. It should be particularly noted that a challenge to trust does not mean any problem, but a complex impact that has certain characteristics: it is capable of harming a specific type of trust (i.e., the challenge is always personalized); requires integral efforts exceeding the capabilities of internal factors designed to maintain a given level of trust (i.e., beyond effort); has a strong internal motivation aimed at building trust (i.e. it is also an incentive for development).

Confirmation of this concept can be found in A. Toynbee's theory of socio-historical processes, which is more often called the "challenge-response" theory ^[73,74]. Adapting it to the purpose of our study, it can be argued that a challenge to trust in the conditions of endogenous or exogenous events requires a response from the mechanism of trust formation, which is able to give impetus to the process of its functioning in the interests of increasing the level of trust. However, do not forget that according to Toynbee, the process of functioning of the mechanism of trust formation always involves creativity and, therefore, may differ in content. The increase in the level of trust will be only when the challenge is followed by a high-level response, very creative and generating further changes, which, in turn, generate another creative response, etc. This methodological postulate has defined the problem field of research and allowed to formulate its goal, which is to form a key base of challenges to trust in Russia, assessment their creative and destructive beginnings and the construction of a predictive-probabilistic model of their manifestation on this basis.

Literature review. The basis for creating a database of sources was based on the following criteria: a) sources indicating the relevance of the chosen topic ^{[3,10,19,36,40,53,54,61,64]}; b) sources analyzing the theoretical and methodological state of the definitions "trust" and "challenge" ^{[10,27,32,51,57,73,74, 77]}; c) sources analyzing the general problems of the functioning of the chain "challenge-trust" ^{[11,27,28,52,73,74,77,79]}; d) sources analyzing particular problems of the functioning of the challenge-trust chain" ^{[1,4,9,10,12-27,35,36,42-48,51-55,57,59,60-65]}; e) sources analyzing the creative beginnings of the challenge in relation to trust ^{[1,8,11,16,17,20-28,30-34,38-43,47,56,67,69,77,79]}. An additional criterion for the selection of sources was their interdisciplinary orientation. The result of this choice is the review we offer.

The analysis of the theoretical and methodological foundations of trust has shown that for a long time the scientific community has been in discourse regarding both its structural elements and the factors (challenges) affecting its level. Thus, P. Shtompka notes that "the process of globalization undermines or weakens all factors contributing to the development of strong and widespread social trust: it makes it difficult to calculate and assess the reliability of people, social roles, organizations and institutions, and also prevents the formation of a climate of trust" ^[10]. Having studied the role of universal or need-tested social mechanisms in the formation of trust, B. Rothstein and E. Uslaner argue that general trust is due to two different, although interrelated, types of equality: economic equality and equality of opportunity ^[61]. To make these arguments plausible, scientists based their theoretical statements on the role of resource allocation and opportunities in society. A more equitable distribution of resources and opportunities will become the basis of a more general trust. This is why countries like the Scandinavian countries, with a history of high equality, demonstrate a higher level of overall trust. In a review of the empirical literature on trust and inequality, H. Yordal also argues for a causal relationship between inequality and trust ^[40]. And J. Delhi and K. Newton consider income equality as a measure of class division, arguing that societies will be more trusting if people are less divided by this class division. Other splits in society, such as religion, language and ethnicity, in their opinion, can also cause alienation and affect trust ^[25].

With the advent of digital technologies in the formation of trust, a new direction, which K. Werbach called "trust without trust". Speech in this case is about technology, ensuring the safety of the transaction, which is achieved based on deterministic computations ^[77]. However, these approaches according to the authors, is not quite correct. For example, systems based on blockchain technology designed to create "confidence" in a particular system, not by the complete elimination of trust, but rather by maximizing the degree of confidence in the system as a tool that can indirectly reduce the need for it. Not in this aspect, forget about the credibility of the information. Even the most thoughtful messages, appealing to either prosocial or selfish motives, are doomed to failure if the authority which produces them, is considered to be unreliable ^[17]. The importance of trust to the source of information in respect of the commitment can be explained by the belief that actions serve the interests of society. Thus, for example, even coercive measures in relation to the society can be taken voluntarily, despite the negative incentives if their imposes a trustworthy entity ^[54]. No wonder in the analyzed scientific papers it is proved that the distrust in institutions responsible for risk management, due to the perception unacceptably high risks. Moreover, risk, and trust are heuristic judgments based on feeling - if it's nice, the risk is low and confidence is high; if it is bad, the risk is high and trust is low ^[69-71].

Against this background, there was even literature that explores whether people or even whether they can be trusted artificial intelligence. Thus, in particular, the arguments of John. Bryson are among the strongest in favor of abandoning the role of trust in the interaction between humans and artificial intelligence ^[19]. These arguments are strong in the face of opposing efforts of some technology companies, designed to "get people to trust artificial intelligence". M. Ryan came to similar conclusions, arguing that "artificial intelligence should not be trusted" ^[64]. This allows us to argue that the challenge should not be considered how much the artificial intelligence, and the actions of the subject in his application as his assistant. In this case, we can say that if the chain intersubjective relations present artificial intelligence, the confidence of these relations should be determined by its quality, reliability and responsibility, has created his man.

Appeal to conceptual works that reveal the category of "challenge" and practical sources characterize the relevance of certain challenges to the trust showed the presence of their wide range. So, P. Sztompka makes the following: planting in the information space of the secondary, not primary information, which increases the level of manipulation of data; the reduction of personal contacts for information, increasing the anonymity of the data source (as noted trusted source); increasing the opacity, mystery, alienation financial, economic, political, cultural flows and processes; the emergence of new, unknown players in the global namespace; loss of confidence in the future; ethnic relativism, anomia, the inability to split the surrounding world to "black" and "white"; increasing growth of mobility, generating waves of migration, refugees, tourism, business, and which are implanted in the regions of their stay factors of an alien culture, the formation of enclaves where cultivated exogenous lifestyle, increasing xenophobia, nationalism, etc ^[10].

According to by Sztompka, every phenomenon is never just "black" or "white" (from Stanki - "rose"). Each phenomenon (read – call), you can always find two opposite sides. The only question is, which of these parties is dominated by ^[10]. Analysis of scientific papers revealed the following "creative challenges" in the economy: economic growth ^[28,35,79], support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises ^[62], the promotion of contracts, property rights, innovation and investment in human and physical capital [and 15.44]; social policy: a high level of equality, the implementation of inclusive social welfare programs, successful reform of the welfare state ^[36,61], concern in relation to health and subjective well-being ^[12,48]; in the political sphere: reduce tax evasion and increase the level of political participation ^[30,58], a high level of legitimacy of the political regime ^[67].

So the call to trust plays the role of a duplex. As a negative factor, it is able under certain conditions to cause the crisis, but is also able to provide the confidence and stimulating effect, increasing its level, i.e. to act as a "creative challenge". On this basis, the hypothesis of our study is the following postulate: as the chain of communication "call-confidence" always has a positive and negative component, the problem for the subjects that building trust is the allocation of these components and identifying ways use them in order to improve his level.

Methods and methodology of research

 The main method of the research problem, the authors were selected system-an integrated approach. This choice was motivated by the fact that a systematic approach to strive for synthesis obtained in the result of the study of scientific knowledge, while remaining within the framework of one subject being analyzed. The authors were primarily interested in the problem of relations in the chain "challenge trust." "A systematic approach to addressing the challenges that affect the prospective dynamics of the level of trust in Russia, provided the use STEEPV analysis, which involves consideration of the social (S), technological (T), economic (E), environmental (E), political (P) and value (V) aspects" ^[50]. An integrated approach gave way to the setting on the synthetic representation of reality through the mobilization of cognitive tools in different disciplines.

The basis for constructing a predictive probabilistic models on a method of assigning a numeric percentage call is to create a General probabilistic framework for comparison. The model is constructed in the format of cross-references that reveal the characteristics of the call. Method of forming a model based on the allocation of knowledge of each expert and the subsequent synthesis by use of the interactive process of formulating a personal judgment. For comprehensive coverage of the research problem to the creation of the database was invited experts representing key sectors of public life and selected in accordance with the following criteria: availability of objective and evidence of formal qualifications in the study area, significant experience at senior level profile analysis, and prominence in a professional environment. The examination was attended by 20 experts, heads of research centers, educators with experience of professional activity in the field of education for more than 25 years, current practitioners in the field of national security of Russia, the academic staff.

The scheme of interaction of experts looked as follows: the formation of a database of calls and clarification of their sources, i.e. division into clusters based on the profile of each expert the expert assessment of the dial is highlighted in the resulting model parameters; classification and subsequent discussion of expert assessments of each member of the survey; the adjustment of the results of the expert survey taking into account findings from group discussions; the formation of a coherent vision of all participants of the expert survey on the analyzed characteristics of the calls. "The reliability of the obtained result was achieved through evidence that the applied methodology led to the transformation of subjective expert assessments of objective knowledge. The rationale for its authenticity was based on the criteria of validation, based on the principle of comparison" ^[1]. Individual expert assessments were compared with each other or with other independent sources that gave me the opportunity to achieve convergence or complete coincidence of assessments (in the interests of ease of processing of the results and their clarity valuation step was chosen to be 5%).

The initial calls were made given the fact that they are key for the impact of the level of trust in Russia. In the database entered today's global challenges, risks, dangers, uncertainties and threats that have been observed throughout the 2017-2022 years in the documents of the UN, the International economic forum (Davos, Switzerland), the political forum "Astana Club" expert forum "Russia and the world (forum), a non-profit organization "RAND Corporation", the International discussion club "Valdai", the St. Petersburg international economic forum, Russian business Week in Moscow, the Forum "Russia calling", the far Eastern investment of Congress, etc.

In addition, they used the principle of uniformity: the challenges were selected so that, on the one hand, they created a fairly complete picture, on the other - reflect problems in the main spheres of Russian society. Content analysis and comparative analysis of selected documents allowed to form the TOP 50 call of trust in Russia. A database of generated calls the direct selection key challenges were carried out on a scale Likert (impact: weak, not very high, high, very high, critical). In the end, the TOP 10 key challenges include those that are, according to experts, had more than 80% with respect to the gradation of effects on the confidence of a "very high" and "critical". The experts also evaluated the predictive status of the call in relation to Russia. The experts then evaluated the effect of each call in clusters on the trust algorithm "challenge (positive, negative) response (overcoming the effects used in the interests of raising the level of confidence)". After processing the results of the study were built predictive probabilistic model challenges the confidence to unlock their characteristics (table. 1) in relation to Russia.

Model key challenges confidence

 The authors built a predictive probability model shows that in the face of contemporary challenges with the available initial level of trust have become increasingly important in the functioning of state mechanisms for the formation of trust, whose main task the creation of a creative response that will allow you to tempfilepath the impact of the call to trust, and in certain cases and to increase the level of trust by applying the positive characteristics of the call.

Table 1. Predictive probabilistic model call trust

in the Russian Federation

Analysis of this model allows us to conclude that among the challenges of trust in Russia there are both global and national challenges. And individual national challenges mentioned by the experts, can be considered as global. The question here is, for example, the identity crisis of digitalization and artificial intelligence. This conclusion can be argued that these challenges are present not only in Russia, but also relevant in other developed economies. So, after Snowden's revelations of the abuse of information and communication technologies for surveillance, disinformation and public coercion has led to a growing loss of trust in public authorities - even in such democratic countries as the United States, as well as the major online platforms, such as Facebook, Google and Twitter, which have been implicated in such abuses ^[32,33,63]. These events gave rise to a new relationship to socio-technical systems, according to which the requirement to trusted third parties - whether it's corporations or governments - is considered more of a hindrance than a help ^[24].

As for the identity crisis that the problem here lies in the fact that active migration in Europe and the United States have created new forms of identity, substituting into question the traditional homogeneous and static notions of identity. In this position, in particular, is R. Putnam, who proved in his studies in U.S. regions with the highest level of ethnic diversity that is extremely rare manifestation of altruism and cooperation, less developed friendly and good neighborly relations. The highest level of confidence in the U.S. was recorded in a rustic, ethnically homogeneous, South Dakota, and the lowest in multicultural Los Angeles and New Orleans. "The more diverse ethnically, the people who live nearby, the less we trust them" ^[8]. However, this conclusion has and apologists. Thus, according to A. Kazemipour, "extremely low level of trust in Canada was recorded in the most ethnically homogeneous regions of the country. Therefore, the study showed that the impact of ethnic diversity on trust is much more important than the effect of the number of the population" ^[42]. This fact drew the attention of the authors in their earlier studies ^[4].

Description of key challenges to the trust

1. Globalization as a challenge to trust. Globalization, according to the UN, is "an inevitable phenomenon in human history, namely that the world as a result of the exchange of goods and products, information, knowledge and cultural values becomes more interconnected" ^[6]. Writes P. Sztompka: "I would argue that, leading to the erosion of trust at the local level, localization at the same time, it generates new mechanisms aimed at restoring confidence in the new global level." ^[10]. The authors note the dramatic improvement in various indicators of human well-being, which occurred over the past half century. At the same time, the authors believe that the high rates of economic growth, which fueled these favorable trends, simultaneously brought the planet to a clash with binding restrictions, as well as to social exclusion, increasing inequality, and, consequently, lower levels of trust. With this conclusion and experts agree, noting that globalization has a negative effect on trust (80%). However, expert opinions concerning the need for proactive action actors build confidence for damping its impact on trust is equally divided. A 50% agreed and 50% believe that globalization enables the constituent entities of the formation of the trust to use its challenges to their advantage. These results are on the side of our hypotheses and allow us to conclude about the globalization, the presence of "two sides of one call" in relation to the trust.

2. Pandemic COVID-19 as a call to trust. It is impossible to deny that the sudden outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in 2019 represents a global challenge for all types and levels of confidence. In the context of epidemics increases the uncertainty in the real world, and a sense of trust people easily undermined, leading to serious problems with public order. According to the model of rational choice, both institutional and interpersonal trust can encourage people to keep public order. ^[41]. However, the trust is directly correlated with the perception of personal and social risk, and one of the more obvious effects of pandemics – the decline of trust in public institutions within countries and worsening mistrust in relations between States. It exacerbates the situation, which the UN Secretary-General A. Guterres in 2018 called "acute deficit of trust" ^[66]. While governments do not trust each other, citizens are losing trust in governments. Thus, a survey of more than 60,000 citizens in all member States of the EU, held in may 2020, has shown that the Europeans are losing confidence in the ability of their leaders to cope with the pandemic. This is especially noticeable in France, Italy and Spain ^[49]. Russian sociologists also testified that during the period from January to April 2020 decreased the credibility of the President and leading politicians. At the same time a growing feeling of uncertainty: in April 2020, half of the respondents (49.7 per cent) found it difficult to answer the question of confidence in authorities ^[2]. Note that this data is identical and the results of our expert survey. So, 75% of the experts noted the negative impact of the pandemic on the confidence level and 60% indicated the need for the development and adoption of measures to counter the impact of the pandemic on the level of trust. But there is a positive effect of the call. He created an excellent opportunity for governments at all levels to organize both workers and employers for a change, in which the state always needs. This, by the way, said 40% of the experts in our study.

3. Social inequality as a challenge to trust. In today's globalized world, there are strong demonstration effects, because now everyone can see how the rich live. However, Marx wrote: "the House can be big or small as long as the neighboring houses and also small it satisfies all social demands for accommodation. But let near a small house there is a Palace, and the little house will be a hut" ^[5]. The mechanisms set out in 1944 with the creation of the Bretton woods monetary system and perpetuated in modern conditions policy of the world Bank, had a goal to ensure a more balanced economic development of all countries of the world. However, experience has shown that the free movement of capital has led to the fact that the regimes in many developing countries used the financial aid that is personal enrichment. Existing mechanisms, thus not reduced, but rather increased the gap between the richest and poorest countries of the world ^[7]. And Russia is no exception. In the survey indicated 90% of the experts. The authors agree with John. Oliver, noting that the existing causal relationship running from inequality to General trust also has a feedback mechanism ^[57]. Consequently, the decline of trust - or, more generally, social capital can enhance economic inequality, as companies with lower social capital are less likely to support a universal policy that is more effective at reducing inequality.

4. Digitalization in the system call trust. Trust is of great importance in human relationships with technology ^[55]. It grows over time thanks to the interactive social mechanisms, but also can quickly be lost, especially in digital interaction when "digital trust" is undermined, for example, as a result of hacking, fraud or technological incompetence by industry or government agencies. So 40% of the experts point to the negative impact of digitalization of the level of trust, and 20% draw attention to the need to implement measures to counter this challenge. Interesting and such a fact that 60% of the experts pointed to the positive aspects of digitalization to trust.

In this context, the study highlighted areas most exposed to in a chain of "digitalization-trust": a technology and information. Analyzing process control human-made technology, scientists have noted the problem of the extent of his fullness ^[3]. What is the probability that the person will not be hopelessly dependent from he created the products? According to experts, predictive negative component of the challenge of digitalization is not that big: today – 15% next 25%. These results suggest that the digitalization like call trust good opportunities to be at his service. But this will happen only if the entities forming trust today will take active steps for this (80% of the experts said it). This is due to the fact that the annual growth of cybercrime is 20-30%, and this call using the global digital payment system, for example, is able to endanger the sovereignty, and, therefore, the trust of domestic policy because of its influence on monetary and financial stability. But also note that this call led to the improvement of the mechanism of damping. In this case, the idea of blockchain technology. As described by the advocate of the blockchain A. Antonopoulos, the blockchain technology allows you to "move from relying on the people to trust for mathematics" ^[16]. This fact drew the attention and 60% of experts, assessing the low likelihood of a negative Outlook in the chain of "digitalization-confidence."

5. Artificial intelligence as a challenge to the trust. Trust is an integral attribute of the interaction of man and machine, Because trust is the act of choosing to put yourself in risk, where the results depend on the actions of another ^[51-53], as well as the action taken by the person as a result of the decision-making process that incorporates a variety of evidence, it becomes obvious that the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) in social life is nothing more than a challenge to the trust (40% of experts agree with this). As noted by N. Luhmann, trust is a mental shortcut: the heuristic that we use to simplify the decision-making process ^[52], and it is especially useful in case of emergency ^[65]. Given the fact that AI is the ability of a computer to learn, to make decisions and perform actions that are characteristic of human intelligence, in this process, we see the highest manifestation of the dichotomy of "challenge-response". There is a lot of discussion about how to do so, to minimize the impact of AI on the level of confidence. One of such examples is the introduction of ethical principles for the design and/or use of AI ^[29]. This is especially important because AI is a challenge to trust not so much directly, and how much indirectly. The problem with this lies not in the trust process, "man-machine" and trust the process "subject-machine-a subject". The point here is that AI becomes a mediator within social relations. I think that is why only 20% of the experts called on the subjects of trust to take proactive in responding to the challenge of AI. Ie we are talking about the loss of trust only if AI does not possess the necessary competence and reliability.

6. Socio-economic modernization of society as a challenge to trust. In nature, there are two approaches to assessing the impact of the call of the level of trust: optimistic and pessimistic. The first argues that the modernization contributes to the empowerment of the person by increasing the collective resources that allows people to trust their fellow citizens ^[38,39]. The optimistic approach is followed and 45% of the experts, as it is suitable for modernization from the perspective of existential security ^[38] or the empowerment of the person ^[39]. The second approach, on the contrary, agree that times of rapid change and urbanization break the traditional social relations and norms, leading to an increasingly anonymous and distrustful society ^[37]. This conclusion was supported by 55% of the experts. An influential theory of Virta on urbanism as a way of life expounded ideas pessimists: "the scale, density, and heterogeneity of modern (urban) life radically changes the nature of social relations - largely in the negative direction. It is expected that the present will generate a series of personal and social dysfunction that will make the trust in any form is unlikely," ^[78]. This drew the attention and 25% of the experts.

7. Corruption as a challenge to trust. Corruption is one of the largest and oldest social problems, which can penetrate into every corner of the country and harm her well-being ^[43]. World organization Transparency International notes that more than two thirds of the 180 surveyed countries and territories scored less than 50 points on a scale from 0 (very corrupt) to 100 (very clean), indicating endemic corruption in the world ^[75]. With this opinion, and agreed to 80% of the experts, noting that corruption is a challenge to the trust that already exists (100%). The analysis of dichotomous links "corruption-trust" shows that this "coin has two sides". On the one hand, intuitively and without any evidence it is clear that corruption is a serious challenge negative trust, which found such a reason in the documents of international organisations (world Bank, international monetary Fund etc.) ^[45]. Theoretical and empirical negative impact of the call to trust proven in studies of this phenomenon in relation to the countries of Western Europe ^[26], Africa, Latin America and South Asia ^[23,67] and Russia. However, some scientists are of the opinion that corruption is an effective mechanism by which to reduce the distortion caused by bureaucratic procedures. As for the experts, you agree with this approach, only 10% of them. This view, often formulated as "the hypothesis of greasing the wheels", was proposed by N. Leff and C. leys ^[46,47]. Meon, p. and L. Weil attribute this to the fact that corruption can act as a rescue vehicle, thereby increasing management efficiency ^[56] due to the acceleration of bureaucratic procedures through the introduction of competition for scarce public resources in the form of bribes or gifts ^[13]. Therefore, it allows you more effectively allocate scarce resources. However, the authors agree with the opinion of S. Anderson, J. Tverdova, I. LaValle and other scientists who believe that this approach requires clarification, because this applies to those countries where social institutions are less effective ^[14,45].

8. Media, Internet and social networks as a challenge to the trust. An important role in the chain "challenge trust" play media. Practice shows that the consumption of formalized news from traditional, especially Pro-government media such as Newspapers and television, democratic enhances satisfaction and trust ^[21,22]. However, in these conditions, traditional media is subjected to wide criticism for narrow and unbalanced coverage of social problems, and for what pay much attention to the interests of dominant social groups, especially in countries with liberal democracy. With the advent of the Internet and social networking facilities challenges to the trust became much wider. This is due to the fact that from the point of view of technological determinism, this call in the XXI century is one of fundamental in the system of challenges to the trust, because it has a wide set of alternative information resources that can be used to influence the level of trust ^[31,68]. 65% of experts supported this conclusion. At the same time, the consideration of this challenge from the perspective of the social construction of technology shows that the agendas is the flip side of this challenge is the answer. We are talking about that the Internet and social networks are also able to perform a positive role in the structure of the mechanism of formation of the trust by using "Internet censorship" and "online participation" ^[34,59,76]. In this case, the media and the Internet function as contexts that are not directly identify individual action, but outline the range of possible actions, promoting some and inhibiting others ^[76]. However, among the experts consensus on this matter is not identified and their positions are equal – 50% to 50%. As the thesis of the subsequent discourse here one could argue about the specific knowledge of the capabilities of network tools and the Internet to influence the level of trust.

9. Cultural confrontation and identity crisis. International mobility is the result of the processes of globalization, advances in information and communication technologies and deterritorialization ^[18,20], which has increased the ethnic, racial, linguistic, cultural and distinctive diversity of many prosperous countries in Europe and the United States ^[4]. Under these conditions, 75% of experts believe that this challenge has become particularly relevant today. The problem here lies in the fact that the migration process implies the creation of new forms of identity, calling into question the traditional homogeneous and static ideas about identity. "The more ethnically diverse the people who live nearby, A. Kazemir notes, the less we trust them" ^[42]. It should be noted that in relation to Russia, only 35% of experts indicated the presence of this challenge, but from the point of view of the forecast component, this number has increased and has already amounted to 45%. As we can see, there is a certain interdependence between trust and ethnic diversity, but interpreted in different ways. This dichotomy appears due to the fact that, as A. Sychev notes, "this phenomenon needs to be studied comprehensively, in concrete historical dynamics, in tension and internal inconsistency, as well as in the context of various external influences (socio–cultural, political, etc.). That is, positive influences - in the long term, and negative – in the short term. This conclusion is based on the thesis that over time certain grievances fade into the background, problems are erased" ^[9].

10. The crisis of legitimacy. Scientific debates about how best to correlate legitimacy and trust usually assume that these relationships are coherent and stable. It is difficult to disagree with this, and 90% of experts emphasize this. According to the theory of procedural justice, the possession of social power inevitably leads to the development of society, while the loss of legitimacy on the basis of a crisis of trust leads to a slowdown in its development (Russia in the early 1990s). It is important to note that this willingness is given voluntarily, without the need for the use of force by the authorities or the threat of punishment. In this case, legitimacy can be used as a basic scheme and conceptualized as the degree to which citizens feel obliged to obey the authorities, as well as as the level of their trust in the authorities, measured either collectively or individually.  Experts reasoned in the same vein, noting that the negative forecast component for Russia has an extremely low probability (90%). And here the data of experts correlate with the data of opinion polls showing for a long time a high level of trust in the Russian government in the conditions of various sanctions and crisis phenomena.

Conclusion

So, trust is a concept that we often take for granted, but only to the extent that it serves as a link for social relations. Trust is at the heart of all global interventions in the field of human activity, society and the state and is crucial for their success or failure. It is not easy to prioritize among the many challenges to trust today, because they are all interrelated. Their complexity requires new approaches suitable for dynamic integrated systems that are developing due to constant innovations in technologies, forms of communication, organization models and institutional frameworks. 

The study was conducted on the database of international forums and symposiums, various challenges affecting trust were identified. To build the model claimed by the authors, the authors used both existing scientific results in this field and their professional experience in participating in the functioning of trust-building mechanisms in Russia. However, the results of this study should be approached with caution and not generalize its results, since the database of the studied data was selected by the author's team and evaluated by the expert community, therefore, has some subjective assessments.

The results of the study allow us to assert that the application of the predictive-probabilistic model constructed by the authors in practice will have a certain impact on the functioning of the mechanisms of trust formation. The use of the results of the work is also possible in the process of analyzing the effectiveness of the functioning of socio-cultural, political, economic and legal social mechanisms of trust formation. Thus, we can conclude that the hypothesis we put forward has the right to exist.

At the same time, the authors understand that their research is only one of the vector approaches to such an urgent problem today as the formation of trust and consider it necessary to continue the study of the chain of interaction "challenge-response".

The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University.