The impact of climate change on agriculture in the regions of the Russian Federation

Sharko Elena Romanovna ORCID: 0000-0002-2818-4329 PhD in Economics Researcher at the Economics Department of INION RAS; Analyst at the Research Center for Network Economy of Lomonosov Moscow State University 117418, Russia, Moskva oblast', g. Moscow, ul. Nakhimovskii Prospekt, 51/21, aud. 5 ersharko@yandex.ru

Introduction

Thanks to its fertile lands, which have exceptional agronomic indicators, Russia has gained fame as the breadbasket of Europe. A third of the world's supply of fertile chernozem soils, which account for more than 30% of arable land in the Russian Federation, a variety of climatic zones and favorable temperature and humidity regimes create attractive conditions for growing a large number of crops, in particular, cereals and oilseeds. Russia's close proximity to major neighboring growing markets (Belarus, the European Union, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan), and access to deep-water ports on the Black Sea provide direct access to world markets and, in particular, large grain importers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Climate change is causing serious problems in the development of agriculture in the world. As for the Russian Federation, climate change will also bring a lot of problems, but also positive economic effects. On the one hand, climate changes towards an increase in the temperature regime are positive factors for agriculture: zones of fertile areas are expanding, yields are increasing (early warm spring and late autumn allow for a double harvest of some crops in one year), on the other hand, climate warming leads to additional precipitation and raininess in some areas and an increase in periods of aridity in other areas, which has a bad effect on the properties of soils and their fertility. The problem of natural climate change directly affects the economic opportunities and threats to the economically important branch of the country – agro-industrial.

The current state of the agro-industrial complex of Russia

Let's consider the current situation in Russia as a whole using the example of the agro-industrial sector and analyze the possibility of negative factors. An analysis of the publications of Russian scientists in the field of agricultural research in Russia has shown that all studies can be conditionally divided into three groups: the first group of scientists (M. S. Abrosimova, E. A. Ivanov, S. G. Kochergina, A. E. Sudakova, M. G. Leshcheva, etc.) investigates a purely economic factor of the influence of general trends in the economy on the agro-industrial the complex of the country (both in Russia as a whole and local studies on specific regions); the second group of scientists (N. D. Avarsky, V. V. Taran, J. E. Sokolova, O. V. Sidorenko, I. V. Ilyina, A. E. Kharitonova, etc.) analyzes the impact of changes in the agro-industrial complex on the country's food security (both at the strategic level and at the level of regional municipal programs); the third group of scientists (M. Yu. Ksenofontov, D. A. Polzikov, N. N. Yashlova, D. A. Ruban, S. O. Siptitz, O. D. Sirotenko, N. V. Svetlov, E. A., Shishkina, A.V. Chugunkova, etc.) examines the impact of climate change on the methods and methods of farming to ensure maximum efficiency of the economy (necessary investments, new product strategies, innovative technologies for the conservation and cultivation of rare crops, etc.). Within the framework of this study, existing approaches are summarized and the goal is to update a comprehensive a scientific approach to changing the policy in the field of crop cultivation, as well as the development of recommendations for their development in the modern realities of climate change in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Agricultural potential is one of the most important components of the economic complex of Russia. The state of agriculture has always been in the center of attention, both of the government and society, and the agrarian issue occupied a central place in the politics of tsarist Russia, the USSR and the modern Russian Federation. The question remains controversial: how did it happen that a country with the largest area of arable land in the world and the largest areas of chernozems could not provide the population with sufficient food, grain and meat for a long time?

Russia ranks third in the world in three main indicators: the ploughing of the territory, the total area of arable land, the availability of arable land per capita as of 1.01.2019. We will demonstrate this fact in Tables 1, 2 and 3, as well as in the form of a diagram in Fig. 1.

As can be seen from the tables, the place in the ratings varies by individual indicators, but Russia is still in the top 10 among all countries of the world (the rating of countries was determined in the geographical directory "About Countries" as of 2018-2020). In order to state unequivocally about the use of the potential of agriculture, averaging was performed on three indicators, what the diagram shows (three ratings of countries were compiled for each indicator (the country whose indicator was the best received the rank, and rank 10 was the lowest, then the values were averaged – arithmetic averages were calculated, the indicators of which were also ranked: the country whose arithmetic average was the lowest received the rank 1, the rank 10 is the maximum).

Table 1 – Ranking of countries according to the indicator of ploughing of the territory

 Source: compiled by the author on the basis of ^{[1; 2; 7]}

Table 2 – Ranking of countries in terms of total arable land area

 Source: compiled by the author on the basis of ^{[1; 2; 7]}

Table 3 – Ranking of countries in terms of arable land availability per capita

Source: compiled by the author on the basis of ^{[1; 2; 7]}

Figure 1 – Ranking of countries by the average value of three indicators of the level of agricultural potential

Source: compiled by the author

In the 1990s, agrarian reform became one of the key elements of market reforms. The aim of the reform was to increase agricultural productivity through land reform and the transformation of collective farms and state farms into a market-oriented company. The reform was based on the issue of land ownership. Mass privatization began in 1991-1992, when state lands were transferred to the ownership of rural residents who lived and worked in collective farms and state farms. The land was divided into equal parts (shares), and each adult collective farmer, pensioner or employee of agricultural and rural institutions received one share. The size of the commission depended on the availability and quality of land plots in the given territory. This mechanism opened the way to the creation of private property in the agricultural sector. The privatization of land led to the rapid emergence of 11.9 million. owners of land plots jointly owning 117.6 million hectares of land. Since that time, agriculture in Russia has gone through a long evolutionary path: today the agro–industry is a high-tech and digital industry that affects the level of GDP of the Russian Federation, and is an important image component of the country in the international community ^{[5, p. 149]}.

Changes in Russia's import-export relations: sanctions and new markets

Currently, the agro-food complex of the Russian Federation, together with the country's economy as a whole, are functioning in difficult socio-economic conditions. Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Ukraine are additionally included in the list of countries that cannot import agricultural products, raw materials and food to Russia. This resolution is aimed at extending special retaliatory economic measures to individual states, taking into account the degree of their involvement in the sanctions regime against our country. The distribution and changes in import-export relations by country in connection with sanctions are clearly presented in Table 4.

 Table 4 – Distribution and changes in import-export relations by country due to
with sanctions in the period 2014-2019 .

 Source: compiled by the author based on ^[9]

As can be seen from the table. 4 import and its structure has changed significantly:

1) vegetable products are mainly imported from Brazil, Turkey and China (trade relations with China are stable and stable – the dynamics is minimal);

2) animal products are mainly imported from Belarus, Brazil and Chile, but the trade turnover itself has decreased in 5 years from 4% to 2%, in 2018 there was a peak of decline – up to 0.5%;

3) food, beverages, tobacco were mainly imported from European countries until 2015 (Germany (8%), France and Italy (7% each)), but since 2015 Belarus (9%) and Brazil (7%) have become importers, since the beginning of 2019 the need for imports has decreased to 0.5%;

4) the export of plant products is stable (minimal fluctuations) and is mainly focused on Asian and African countries;

5) exports of animal products were the first to fall under the sanctions and until 2018 amounted to less than 0.5%, and in 2018 China became the main importing country (30%);

6) exports of food, beverages, tobacco to 2017 were carried out to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, but after 2017 decreased to less than 0.5% (exports since 2017 are mainly carried out to Kazakhstan).

Under the conditions of economic sanctions, one of the preventive measures was import substitution – reorientation to the domestic market and own production of key economically important products, materials and raw materials. The role of agriculture has increased to a new level – ensuring the national food security of the Russian Federation.

The impact of climate change on agriculture

Global warming is accompanied by abnormal natural phenomena: heat, floods, changes in precipitation cycles, air circulation regime, etc. All this also has an impact on the conditions of farming. According to forecasts of Roshydromet, warming will lead to an increase in precipitation throughout the country, with the exception of the south of the European part of Russia: on the contrary, there will be less precipitation there. Summer precipitation decreases in the most important grain-producing areas of the Central, Volga, Southern and North Caucasian Federal districts.

A characteristic sign of climate change over the past decade is warming, manifested in an increase in the average annual air temperature by 2-3 °C ^[10]. In addition to the increase in the average annual air temperature, agriculture is also affected by other factors – droughts, floods, temperature changes, which significantly reduce the production of grain crops and livestock productivity. In some developing countries, agriculture is suffering due to increased salinization of surface waters, as well as the groundwater aquifer due to rising sea levels. A decrease in precipitation can lead to a reduction in water supplies for irrigation and animal husbandry, especially in arid zones.

This is a very dangerous situation for Russian soils. In conditions of drought, the problem of their degradation may acquire signs of an ecological catastrophe ^{[12, p. 1247]}.

Also, the consequence of global warming for agriculture is a reduction in the production of agricultural products due to a decrease in crop yields and livestock productivity. With the continuation of the global warming trend, the situation in the agricultural sector is only getting worse. According to scientific forecasts, an increase in the average annual temperature by 1-3 °C in the near future will have the greatest impact on the production of grain crops ^{[11, p. 464]}.

So, the analysis of the impact of climate change on the product orientation of agricultural enterprises is relevant today, especially in the regions where the most recent changes have occurred in the production structure of enterprises – the Krasnodar Territory, the Rostov Region – the southern Federal District.

The last four years in the world have been recognized as the hottest in the history of meteorological observations of the weather. There is a steady increase in air temperature in all seasons. The weather conditions of 2019 confirm this, because many temperature records have been set in Russia. The average monthly air temperature in February, March, June, October and November 2019 was the highest or one of the highest for these months for the entire period of instrumental weather observations. Climatologists call such abnormally warm years "windows into the future" ^{[4, p. 85]}. Unfortunately, along with warming, the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation increases, which negatively affect crop yields.

It was noted above that the average annual air temperature is the main parameter for assessing climate change. In Russia, it has increased by 1.2 °C over the last thirty years, and if we count over the last 10 years, then by 1.6 ° C ^[6]. However, for effective farming, it is very important to know how not only the average annual air temperature changes, but also the trends in average monthly and seasonal temperatures. The planning of field work and its effectiveness largely depend on these changes.

Negative consequences of climate change for the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation

The first "signal" in the form of an unexpected prolonged drought and the loss of a third of the grain harvest occurred in 2010. In 2012, farms lost a quarter of the harvest. Dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena – droughts, and then heavy precipitation, due to which the harvest cannot be harvested, began to occur more often. In 2019, due to bad weather, 19 subjects of the Russian Federation declared an emergency in agriculture. Agricultural producers incur huge losses due to climatic anomalies, therefore, the relevance of optimizing agricultural planning and economic management in the new conditions becomes an important task for both scientists and subjects of the agricultural market.

Figure 2 shows deviations from the norm of average monthly air temperatures (anomalies) for the period 1936-2019. The estimates were obtained according to the station CLIMATE and SYNOP reports received in a timely manner via communication channels.

As can be seen in Fig. 2, 2019 was the fourth year among the warmest years since 1936: the average annual air temperature anomaly averaged over the territory of Russia (deviation from the average for 1961-90) +2.07 °C. In the Central Federal District (+2.51°C) 2019 was the warmest in a row; in the Southern Federal District (+2.03°C), the North Caucasus Federal District (+1.89°C), the Far Eastern Federal District (+2.15°C) 2019 was among the three warmest; in the SFO (+2.19°C) 2019 was among the five warmest. In these federal districts, 95% extremes were recorded everywhere, while the average annual anomalies were above +2°With ^[3].

In the summer of 2020, in the Krasnodar Territory, where 90% of Russian rice is grown, the risks of crop loss have increased. Due to the heat and drought, the level of the Krasnodar reservoir has dropped to a critical level, which is the main source of water in rice fields. In order to avoid drought in rice checks in the Kuban riverbed, it was necessary to transfer the drains of the Stavropol Grand Canal. The Ministry of Agriculture notes that in 2020, in the south of Russia as a whole, there is a low grain harvest for these territories due to unfavorable climatic conditions ^[8].

Figure 2 – Average annual (above) and seasonal anomalies of surface air temperature (°C), averaged over the territory of Russia, 1936-2019.

Source: ^[3]

The change in air temperature in the summer months affected its absolute maxima, that is, the highest temperatures that have ever been recorded by meteorological stations for the entire observation period. The number of days with very high temperatures (above +30-35 °C), or the number of days with heat stress has increased throughout the country. In the southern regions of the country during the growing season, there used to be an average of 30-40 such days, it became 50-65, in the northern and western regions it was less than 10, it became more than 15-30.

The change in the temperature regime during the warm period of the year affected the thermal resources of the Russian Federation, for the evaluation of which the indicator of the sum of active (positive) air temperatures above +10 ° C accumulating during the warm period is used. Comparison of these amounts for different periods indicates their increase by an average of 200-400 ° C.

In the far south (Krasnodar Territory, Rostov region) there was a thermal zone with a sum of temperatures of more than 3400-3700 ° C. These are areas where there is quite enough heat for growing rice, cotton and other very heat-loving crops.

In addition, in the period 2010-2019, the heat supply of the Volgograd Region, Stavropol Territory, and the Republic of Kalmykia was the same as in the previous decade. That is, the regions of the northern steppe and the southern forest-steppe of Russia now already have the conditions of the southern steppe. A characteristic feature is that in the northern regions the increase in the amount of heat is more rapid. The most important factor for a good harvest of any crop in Russia with its natural (climate) rather limited rainfall is sufficient soil moisture. The lack of soil moisture during the growing season is the main factor that reduces yield.

Conclusion

Taking into account the considered trends and factors, it is economically expedient to gradually change the production focus of individual regions towards completely new crops for climate-altered natural conditions of agricultural lands. For example, the southern regions with their climate have always been ideally suited for winemaking, but in recent years periods of drought and an abnormal increase in temperatures have negatively affected the production of wine products. Roskachestvo experts say that vineyards will begin to actively develop in the northern direction (Altai, Primorsky Krai, Voronezh, Samara, Saratov are already laying the initial forms of winemaking, since these regions will become more and more suitable for creating excellent quality wines every year). Northern winemaking is a direct consequence of global climate warming. Also, following climate change, we can already observe an increase in yields in the Bryansk, Moscow, Tver and Yaroslavl regions, in the North-West, because climatic conditions are becoming favorable for growing both grain crops and beets, potatoes, fruits and berries, which previously did not give much productivity. Warming already makes it possible to grow southern crops in the Moscow region: apricots, walnuts, peaches. In the Rostov region, the Strategy 2030 includes the cultivation of tea and tangerine as a preventive measure to adapt to climate change. This is also facilitated by the introduction of modern agricultural technologies – with the use of fertilizers and plant protection products, the re-equipment of the technical park, the use of new business models. Thus, the agricultural complex of the Russian Federation, supported by the state and in recent years pulling forward the Russian economy, began to slow down. Years of sanctions have shown that the industry is still seriously dependent on weather conditions, is slowly turning towards new technologies, and is losing profitability. However, the ongoing initiatives and current trends allow us to count on the fact that this is a temporary phenomenon, and the inclusion of new mechanisms will allow the industry to regain its leading position in the country's economy. The food embargo, which has been in effect since August 2014, has traditionally been extended, and the industry, instead of import substitution, has received a new strategic task — to double exports by 2024 and bring it to $45 billion. Currently, the Ministry of Agriculture is working on adjusting the single subsidy, which will take into account the peculiarities of the regions. The subsidy is planned to be divided into compensating and stimulating parts, and the stimulating part will be directed to the implementation of regional programs selected by competition. The separation will take effect from 2020. In general, the volume of financing of the state program for the development of agriculture for 2019-2025 is more than 2.5 trillion. rubles, including 2.3 trillion. rubles - from the federal budget. In 2018, the law on organic agriculture was adopted, which also gives farmers good chances not only to work in the domestic market, but also to conquer foreign consumers. The term of the current state program for the development of agriculture (2013-2020) has been extended until 2025, it includes federal projects "Development of exports of agricultural products", "Digitalization of agriculture" and "Creation of a system of support for farmers and agricultural cooperation". These projects will be able to reorganize existing approaches to agriculture, and investments aimed at reproducing new crops that can now be grown due to changes in climatic conditions in the southern regions of Russia will play a crucial role in supporting and rapidly developing new business units in the region, and possibly forming new agro-industrial clusters.