Education as a tool for managing the development of human capital in new macroeconomic conditions

Kirko Vladimir Igorevich Doctor of Physics and Mathematics Professor, the department of Economics and Management, Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V. P. Astafyev; Professor, Siberian Federal University 660049, Russia, Krasnoyarskii krai, g. Krasnoyarsk, ul. Ady Lebedevoi, 89 director.nifti@mail.ru Other publications by this author     Kononova Elena Sergeevna PhD in Economics Deputy Prorector of Educational Activities, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarskii krai, g. Krasnoyarsk, prospekt imeni gazety, 31 elkask@rambler.ru Other publications by this author

Luk'yanova Anna Aleksandrovna Doctor of Economics 660037, Russia, Krasnoyarskii krai, g. Krasnoyarsk, prospekt imeni gazety, 31 aaluk110@mail.ru

Ensuring the stable development of socio-economic systems and creating conditions for the well-being of the population is inextricably linked with the formation of a development model focused not only on the growth of financial and economic indicators, but also on achieving high standards of living for an individual, as well as the effective use of all types of resources.

An important role in the formation of sustainable socio-economic systems is played by the evolution of knowledge accumulation, which ultimately leads to an increase in human capital. In order for accumulated knowledge and technology to increase human capital, education is necessary. Education according to R. Kurtzweil ^[1] is the process of transmitting information, forming images of the real world, as well as forming opinions and beliefs.

A distinctive feature of the human brain is the ability and perception of images that were formed as a result of education, independent knowledge of the surrounding world (pioneers in the discovery of laws, phenomena, objects of living and non-living nature), as well as the ability to create non-existent, imaginary images with the help of all their senses: artistic, inventive, musical, design and etc.

The accumulation of universal human capital is necessary to manage the 3 main environments that ensure an improvement in the quality of human life and ultimately guarantees the sustainable development of society. These are environmental, technological, and social environments ^[2-4].

Thus, as shown in ^[4], the absence or limitation of educational opportunities leads to a break in the entire chain of stages leading to the improvement of the quality of life, as well as to the sustainable development of society.

Figure 1 shows a slightly upgraded chain of stages compared to ^[4].

Fig.1 The chain of stages of improving the quality of life and sustainable development has been modernized in comparison with ^[4]. 1-facts accumulated by mankind; 2-accumulated knowledge; 3-education; 4- universal human potential; 4-universal capital; 6-management; 7a, b,c-environmental, economic (technological) and social environments, respectively; 8-quality of life; 9-sustainable development; 10-people.

Areas 1 and 2 are the accumulated facts and knowledge of mankind, which are constantly growing over time. In area 3 – "education", a person comes into contact with knowledge, as a result of which, in the future, he feeds his individual human potential (ICH) universal potential, which in turn passes into universal capital (stage 5) if there are investments in:

-science and technology;

- ecology;

- Healthcare;

- further education and the social sphere.

It is at this stage that the reproduction and accumulation of human capital takes place due to the emergence of new political, economic, technological and social opportunities that arose at the stage of changes in the field of human potential. A bank of new facts, skills and knowledge is being formed here, which fuel areas 1 and 2.

There is a significant difference between the concept of human potential and the concept of human capital. Universal human capital has been continuously increasing over time, since the beginning of mankind, is increasing and will continue to increase. Its decrease (insignificant) could only be due to the disappearance of civilizations. For example, such as: the Minoan island of Crete ^[5], the civilization of Easter Island ^[6], the Empire of Rama in India (500 AD), Tiaunako in South America ^[7] and almost 18 other civilizations, with the disappearance of which humanity has lost a lot of technology, knowledge and skills.

Over time, human potential can increase or decrease both incrementally and gradually. The abrupt increase in the universal human potential may be associated with epoch-making discoveries or basic inventions that contribute to humanity in the development of new industries, technologies, obtaining new knowledge, etc.

As an example of discoveries in the field of materials, which created conditions for a sharp increase in human potential and determined the further accumulation of human capital:

-copper, arsenic (VI–IV millennium BC ^[8]) – gave rise to the Bronze Age, the beginning of non-ferrous metallurgy;

-iron, carbon (IX—VII centuries BC to I century AD^[9]) – the Iron Age and the origin of ferrous metallurgy;

-aluminum, silicon, celluloid (19th century AD) – the birth of the automotive industry, aviation, organic chemistry, computers and IT technologies;

-nanomaterials are the beginning of the era of artificial materials based on the discoveries of fullerene, graphene, nanotubes ^[9-13] and technologies based on them.

Epoch-making discoveries that dramatically increased human potential: the wheel, the water wheel, the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, the electric motor, the computer, etc. It was these inventions and many others that gave a leap in human potential, which eventually became the basis for increasing human capital.

An abrupt decrease in human potential can occur as a result of global economic crises, pandemics (plague, cholera, smallpox, Spanish flu, and possibly coronavirus), and natural disasters ^[14]. It was the economic crises of 1997-1998. (the Asian and Russian crisis), 2008 led to a catastrophic decline in the economies of the world, which naturally affected the possibility of human potential to realize itself in human capital. We are now witnessing a sharp decline in human potential for two reasons: a catastrophic drop in oil prices and the simultaneous spread of the coronavirus pandemic. It seems that such a coincidence is happening to humanity for the first time and how this will affect the further increase in the rate of accumulation of human capital, we will observe in the future.

The transition of universal human potential into capital can be associated with the Kondratiev waves ^[15] or with the ways of S. Glazyev (50-60 years old) ^[16]. In the first case, with the global economic situation, and in the second - with the emergence of a dominant industry, which entails a host of related technologies and industries. The leap in human potential leads to an increasing wave of human capital growth. The exhaustion of human potential in the dominant industries leads to a downward wave of human capital growth and the associated change in the economic conjuncture (according to Kondratiev).

Short waves of Y. They are associated with the cycle of modernization of equipment and technologies in the current technological and socio-economic paradigm (10-12 years) ^[17] and may be associated with the death of part of human capital due to its lack of demand by society.

The growth of human potential and its subsequent transition to capital may have and historically has limitations: political, moral, ethical, religious, economic, etc.

Restrictions on the growth of human potential are most likely related to restrictions on investments in education and health, caused by the same reasons, political, economic, religious, etc. Restrictions on the transfer of potential and its speed to human capital are restrictions related to investments in science, technology, socio-cultural sphere, ecology, as well as, again, in education and healthcare.

The above-mentioned limitations on the growth of universal human potential form new approaches to ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of mankind. In his article "New Reality: Russia and global Challenges", to explain the essence of global economic conditions, D.A. Medvedev cites the term "new normal" ^[18], interpreting it as a set of key characteristics that determine the development of the global economy in the long term.

This term, which can be translated into Russian as "new normality" or "new reality", implies that previous approaches to sustainable development based on quantitative growth of economic indicators are losing their relevance. The "new reality" poses new economic challenges to all participants in the global economic space, which, as the study showed, include:

- the inability to ensure stable economic growth due to the export-raw material development model;

- accelerating the pace of technological development of the world's leading powers and strengthening global competition;

- the desire to switch to alternative energy sources, improving the energy efficiency of production processes;

- unstable geopolitical situation and the emergence of hotbeds of confrontation between States;

- globalization of the human capital market, expansion of the scale of mobility of human resources, expansion of opportunities for the realization of human potential in the global economic space;

- a sharp increase in the uncertainty of the macroeconomic space.

Under these conditions, the growth rate of universal human capital M can be determined, without taking into account its losses during its extinction, the disappearance of civilizations, as well as without mass migration of the population to other planets, according to the formula:

dM/dt = aM ^[1],

where M is universal human capital, which can be calculated in bits or bytes by converting all universal, accumulated knowledge, skills and abilities into a binary system (all books, articles, inventions, works of art, laws, etc.); t is time.

That is, the rate of accumulation of human capital is proportional to its accumulated value. In this case, the human capital itself increases exponentially over time according to the formula:

M=M0*exp(a*t/a0*t0) ^[2],

where M0 is the accumulated human capital (in bytes) at time t0; a*t is the invested amount of investment.

This formula, if it is correct, then:

- confirms the theory of technological singularity put forward by R. Kurzweil ^[19], based on phenomenally rapid scientific and technological progress, powerful artificial intelligence (superior to human) and cyborgization of people in the future.

- it suggests that over time, the wavelengths of Kondratiev, as well as the periods of S. Glazyev's patterns, will decrease. In their analyses, they took a short period of time - from the beginning of the scientific and technical revolution (18th century) to the present.

The proof of this statement can be the reference points of epoch-making inventions that created human potential and later turned it into capital.

In order to ensure that the Russian education system meets the needs of human capital development, serious transformations and changes in the approaches to the educational process themselves are necessary.

According to the authors, the following key areas of transformation of the modern Russian education system can be identified, which can set a new vector for the development of human capital in Russia:

1) creation of a system of continuing education that actually, and not formally, provides the concept of "lifelong education", modernization of the system of additional education;

2) the revival and development of an integrated learning system that ensures the partnership of universities with business and society;

3) the formation of a system of global access to the best educational resources, the unification of formal and informal education in order to individualize the educational routes of students, reducing the level of formalization of the educational process

The innovative vector of development of the Russian economy necessitates the creation of a system of continuing education that could ensure a high quality of life for the population and the maximum completeness of human capital development.

The development of human capital is impossible without the creation of a highly effective education system that allows the formation of new competencies and the development of existing ones throughout a person's life ^[20]. The formation of the basis for the creation and dissemination of structural and educational innovations used in the process of forming professional and so-called meta-subject competencies requires a systematic modernization of additional education, including the creation of an innovative educational environment, networking, the formation of network scientific and educational complexes, personification of the educational process based on the unity and continuity of formal, informal and informational education ^{[21, 22]}, interactive educational environments and platforms, new technologies and teaching methods, new forms of organization of the educational process, ensuring accessibility and high quality of educational services.

A highly efficient system of engineering and technical training is another important element of education as a tool for improving the quality of life of the population and the development of human capital. Modernization of education in accordance with the needs of high-tech industries is defined by the Federal Law "On Education in the Russian Federation", the National Doctrine of Education in the Russian Federation, the state program "Development of Education for 2013-2020". Integrated training is one of the ways to ensure high–quality training of engineering and technical personnel, and this is shown both by the experience of previous years and modern attempts to revive this system in Russian universities.

Practice has shown that one of the key areas of modernization of engineering and technical training are:

- development of cooperation with industrial partners in order to ensure the practical orientation of the educational process and increase the level of demand for university graduates in the labor market;

- modernization of the model of targeted graduate training in terms of the transition from targeted admission for the 1st year to targeted training based on the selection of highly motivated 2-3 year students for specialized training in the interests of industry leaders;

- development of innovative forms of organization of the educational process, including the project approach.

Providing access to the best global educational resources, combining formal and non-formal education will make it possible to form a system of training highly qualified graduates with not only professional competencies formed on the basis of established scientific and educational achievements and traditions of a certain university, but also professional and meta-subject competencies formed on the basis of world best practices. To do this, an effective system of accounting for the use of additional educational resources in education should be created, procedures have been created to realistically assess the possibility of crediting the development of additional educational programs as the results of mastering the elements of the main educational programs of universities.

Thus, it can be confidently stated that education is a key tool for the formation of sustainable socio-economic systems that ensure the realization and development of human capital and, ultimately, improve the quality of life of the population.