Reference:
Gorozhanin I.A., Ionov D.D., Perepelkin K.A..
Changing the balance of power in the South Caucasus in the 2020s.
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2024. № 4.
P. 15-30.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2024.4.72120 EDN: BXDKAG URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=72120
Abstract:
The article examines the key changes in the balance of power in the South Caucasus in the 2020s, analyzing the consequences of the Caucasian War in 2020 and the influence of external actors on regional security. The authors explore the political, economic and military aspects contributing to the transformation of the geopolitical situation, including the role of Russia, Turkey and Iran. Particular attention is paid to the conflicts that have arisen as a result of recent events, as well as the internal challenges faced by the States of the region. The object of the study is the processes of changing the balance of power in the South Caucasus. The subject of the study is the factors influencing these changes, such as the geopolitical interests of states, internal conflicts and the socio-economic development of the countries of the region. The purpose of this study is to formulate forecasts of future changes and development of the balance of power in the South Caucasus in the medium term. The research is based on a systematic approach. The study considers the South Caucasus as a complex and interconnected system in which political, economic and social factors influence the balance of power. When studying media materials and scientific publications, the content analysis method was used to identify key trends and changes in the political situation in the region. The conclusions of the study emphasize the importance of a multilateral approach to the security of the South Caucasus, as well as the need for a deep understanding of the internal and external factors determining the stability of the countries of the region. The novelty lies in a comprehensive approach to the study of changes in the political, economic and military-strategic spheres that are taking place in the South Caucasus. The emphasis is also placed on the transformation of the roles of not only key players such as Russia, Turkey and Iran, but also the influence of the EU, the United States and Israel in the context of modern geopolitical realities. To ensure long-term stability in the region, a multilateral approach is required, including not only military, but also economic, diplomatic and cultural aspects. The creation of mechanisms for cooperation and dialogue between the States of the South Caucasus will help to alleviate tension and prevent the escalation of conflicts.
Keywords:
transport corridors, energy resources, regional security, geopolitics, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, power balance, South Caucasus, self-determination
Reference:
Tsimashchenia V.A..
Global Criminal Alliances: The Phenomenon of Interaction between European Union and Latin American Criminal Organizations
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2024. № 3.
P. 1-13.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2024.3.71348 EDN: TJDSTX URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=71348
Abstract:
The research focuses on the evolution of transnational organized crime, mechanisms of interaction between criminal structures in these two regions, and the impact of this cooperation on global security. Special attention is given to the analysis of criminal flow convergence, including drug trafficking, money laundering, and arms trade. The study investigates the transformation process of local criminal organizations into global criminal networks, as well as the formation of shadow enclaves in Latin America. The object of research includes specific cases of cooperation between European and Latin American criminal groups, their methods and strategies, and the socio-economic and political factors contributing to the development of this phenomenon. The research employs an interdisciplinary approach, combining methods from criminology, political science, sociology, and economics. Data is sourced from official reports, academic publications, and expert interviews. The scientific novelty of the research lies in its comprehensive analysis of international criminal alliances, viewing transnational organized crime as a complex adaptive system. Key findings include the identification of trends towards the formation of stable transcontinental criminal networks, determination of key factors facilitating this process, and analysis of its impact on regional and global security. The author's contribution is the development of the "shadow enclaves" concept as key nodes in the structure of international criminal alliances. The study also reveals new forms of criminal cooperation, including the symbiosis of terrorism and drug trafficking.The article provides insights for developing more effective strategies to counter transnational organized crime, emphasizing the need for enhanced international cooperation in law enforcement, legislative harmonization, and anti-corruption efforts.
Keywords:
Shadow enclaves, Global security, European Union, Latin America, Drug trafficking, Organized crime groups, Criminal Alliances, Transnational crime, International cooperation, Convergence of criminal flows
Reference:
Tsimashchenia V..
Determinants of transnational organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of socio-economic drivers
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2023. № 4.
P. 62-82.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2023.4.68701 EDN: PPOJTI URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=68701
Abstract:
The article analyzes the socio-economic factors that determine the development of transnational organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean. The reasons for the development of this phenomenon in the region can be divided into poor governance, corruption, low level of human development, problems of inequality and social mobility, as well as the geostrategic position of the countries of the region. The article focuses on the comparison of the most and least vulnerable to organized crime countries in Latin America. The author concludes that the most common factors are weak state institutions, high levels of corruption and social inequality, and insufficient effectiveness of anti-money laundering measures. Venezuela, Mexico, Haiti and some other countries in the region are particularly vulnerable. To mitigate the risks, the author proposes a comprehensive approach that includes strengthening institutions, the rule of law, and combating corruption and inequality. The work makes a significant contribution to understanding the causes of the growth of organized crime in Latin America.
Keywords:
drug trafficking, emerging security challenges, the Caribbean, inequality, money-laundering, public administration, corruption, Latin America, transnational organized crime, economy
Reference:
Horbil P., Korosteleva E.I., Raad F..
Women's Terrorism in the Caucasus
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2023. № 1.
P. 31-43.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2023.1.39814 EDN: IRNPUG URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=39814
Abstract:
Throughout the history of its existence the phenomenon of terrorism has undergone changes in methods, approaches and means of manifestation, however, in the modern world terrorism is becoming a global threat to humanity. The object of research in this article is female terrorism in the Caucasus. The multinational region of the Caucasus encourages the peoples inhabiting it to fight for independence in order to preserve their identity and the right to self-determination. The article examines in detail the history of terrorism in the Caucasus, the role of women in terrorist activities, identifies the origins of the origin of terrorism during the existence of the Russian Empire, and gives the reasons for the emergence of terrorism in the post-Soviet period on the territory of this region. The relevance of the research topic is determined by the fact that women's terrorism, like any manifestation of terrorist activity, is a difficult to predict threat, and in order to eradicate the problem of terrorism, it is necessary to study it and thereby prevent it. Throughout its history, the Caucasus has always remained one of the most unstable regions and was distinguished by high terrorist activity. This is facilitated by various factors that have led to the widespread development of terrorist activities in the territory of this region. The two initial factors are ethnic and confessional. The scientific novelty of the study is due to the study of women's participation in terrorist activities in the Caucasus region, identifying the reasons for their participation. In this study, the authors used the historical method, as well as the method of situational analysis, which was aimed at finding the relationship of women's participation in terrorist activities in the Caucasus. The article examined Russia and the countries of the Caucasus region: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. On the basis of a comparative analysis, the article revealed the characteristic features of terrorist activity and the place of female terrorism in the territories of the above-mentioned countries.
Keywords:
North Caucasus, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Russia, Post-Soviet studies, Caucasus, Terrorism, Women's terrorism, Analysis
Reference:
Khusainova S..
The specificity of Russia’s chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2021–2023
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2021. № 4.
P. 1-11.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2021.4.37096 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=37096
Abstract:
The subject of this research is the policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic. The object is Russia’s chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2021–2023. The author meticulously analyzes the positions of the state, taking into account national interests and peculiarities of the current international situation in the region. The article examines the domestic legislative acts adopted for regulation of the Arctic Region, as well as international documents aimed at sustainable development of the North. The conditions of collective security dictate moderate and clearly defined policy in the Arctic, which is the central arena for political action with the leading role of the Russian Federation until 2023. The conclusion is drawn that the Arctic Region is currently the most relevant vector of the policy of northern states. Chairmanship of the Russian Federation imposes enormous responsibility on the country, as despite the overall state of security in the region, there remains a range of unresolved issues. The attempts of institutionalization of the Arctic Council may become an implicit threat for the Russian Federation; this is why the systematization of domestic legislation and foreign policy actions on maintaining the health of ecosystem, cultural heritage, and environmental policy have become the priority vectors in the first year of Russia’s chairmanship. The overall responsibility of the leading actor the Arctic does not exclude the existence of classic threats to the security of state’s sovereignty, which requires accurate planning in subsequent years of the chairmanship.
Keywords:
Russian Federation, sustainable development, ecosystem, institutionalization, national interest, northern countries, Arctic Council, Arctic, foreign policy, north
Reference:
Kostyuchek S.V., Vlasov S., Vasin A.A., Fokina A.A..
“Space race” in the strategic triangle of the United States – Russian Federation – People’s Republic of China: comparative analysis
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2021. № 3.
P. 64-77.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2021.3.36886 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=36886
Abstract:
This article is explores the balance of powers in the strategic triangle United States – Russian Federation – People’s Republic of China in space. The key goal lies in assessment of the capacity of space industry in the listed countries. The relevance of the selected topic is substantiated by the strategic importance of the configuration of leadership in the new political space. Space race may bring to achieving technological superiority over the opponent by amplifying the influence in space using the latest and more powerful military and scientific developments. In the course of analysis, the author reveals the essential criteria for comparing the potential of the three countries. Through the prism of neo-realistic paradigm, interpretation is given to the quantitative indicators of the three powers. The article determines the leading countries in “space race”, and answers the question – which country has superiority to establish the rules of conduct in space. The “space race” actors have a sufficient level of power and are somewhat inferior in order to dictate the rules in outer space, or hinder the opponents in development of their space programs using political or economic leverage. China's aspiration to strengthen space capabilities for neutralizing any potential threats alongside commitment of China and Russia to challenge the dominance of the United States, paves the way for shifting the strategic competition between the US and China to space, which affects the military-strategic and technological spheres.
Keywords:
National Security, Balance of powers, Leadership, Space Competitiveness, The US-China Rivalry, The US-Russia-China Strategic Triangle, Comparative Analysis, Space Race, Conflict of Interest, Space Program
Reference:
Butorov A.S., Cherniaev M.S..
Position of the U. S. analytical centers on the problem of Brexit
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2019. № 4.
P. 39-55.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2019.4.31769 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=31769
Abstract:
The subject of this research is the approaches of U. S. “think tanks” to the problem of Britain leaving the European Union. Special attention is paid to analysis of the centers loyal to the policy of the Republican and Democratic Parties of the United States regarding one of the fundamental disintegration problems in Europe. The authors examine such aspects of the topic as forecast of Britain’s split from EU, consequences of Brexit for the United States and American-British relations, future of the trade and economic cooperation and question of ensuring security, recommendations and modeling of the most favorable scenario of Brexit from the perspective of approaches of the U. S. analytical centers. The agenda-setting theory is selected as theoretical framework to confirm the impact of materials of the U. S. analytical centers, which share the views of the Republican and Democratic Parties, upon the stance of one or another presidential administration on Brexit. The conclusion is made that Brexit causes concern of the American political and analytical structures, substantiated by its influence on the development of American-British relations that play the key role for the interests of the United States in Europe. The authors’ special contribution consists in determination of commitment of the selected for consideration analytical centers to the two major U. S. parties. The scientific novelty lies in tracing the difference between the approaches towards conducting foreign policy by analytical centers that support the Democratic and Republican Parties of the United States. Substantial differences of the approaches prove that despite the officially declared independence, the activity of the analytical centers is associated with the activity of political structures.
Keywords:
European integration, Euro-Atlantic security, European Union, Great Britain, USA, think tank, Brexit, Republican Party, Democratic Party, agenda-setting
Reference:
Bocharnikov I.V..
Modern trends in international terrorism development
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2016. № 1.
P. 52-61.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2016.1.67662 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=67662
Abstract:
The article analyzes the main trends of the evolution of international terrorism in the modern world. The goal of this study is international terrorism. The object of research is to determine the current trends of international terrorism and the forms and methods of counteracting them at the present stage. The subject of research are development trends, as well as forms and methods of combating international terrorism in the modern world. Based on the data presented in the "global ranking of terrorism 2015" developed by British analysts, as well as the analysis of other terrorist acts that are not included in the rating, the author determines the dynamics of the growth of terrorism in the present and in the near future. The methodological basis of this study includes the systemic, structural-functional, comparative-political approaches, the methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, observation. The increase in the number of terrorist attacks and their scale largely contributes to the tendency of the development of terrorism. For example, the transition from the implementation of the individual terrorist acts to large-scale acts; dramatic change in the violent, intimidating means employed by terrorists; the use of advanced information technologies by terrorist groups; coordination between the various terrorist groups; the desire for legitimation of terrorism, terrorist organizations by positioning as a state-organized bodies. Such trends contribute to the transformation of international terrorism to the global problems of modern global political processes.
Keywords:
political system, Russia, world politics, U.S.foreign policies, internatpional relations, diplomacy, interests, state, security, risks
Reference:
Khanter M..
Muslim Australia and the search for a solution in the "War on Terror"
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2015. № 3.
P. 331-334.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2015.3.66899 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=66899
Abstract:
The subject of this study is the Muslim community of Australia and its involvement in the political process, as well as the ideological motivation of the community for supporting radical extremism or, on the other hand, fighting it relentlessly. The article studies the strategies and tactics of the Australian government in their fight against Islamism and terrorism. The author draws attention to the fact that the Muslim community in Australia is quite numerous and tight-knit, and, in many ways, represents a closed community in which the preachers of radical Islam receive wide opportunities for the initiation and recruitment of followers. The methodological basis of the research is a systemic, structural and functional, comparative political approaches, methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, observation. This situation calls for a 'new international doctrine' that would include prevention, intervention, and restoration of mentalities to prevent any re-establishment of terrorism under different names and new generations in the future. Modern Australia does not offer the much-needed contribution in this process.The Australian Government's domestic approach to the 'War on Terror' may lead to a much more conservative Australia, and weaken the Australian values of multiculturalism. It may divide Australia rather than unite it. However, the public discussion on this issue may help the Abbott Government win a second term in office.
Keywords:
interests, democracy, color revolutions, hybrid war, state, USA, society, politics, values, security
Reference:
Ivanov S.M..
The Role of Iraqi Kurdistan in Regional Geopolitics
// Conflict Studies / nota bene.
2014. № 1.
P. 122-135.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0617.2014.1.65853 URL: https://en.nbpublish.com/library_read_article.php?id=65853
Abstract:
This article focuses on the studying of the place and role of Iraqi Kurdistan in world and
regional politics. Iraqi Kurdistan is a unique model of a just solution to the problems of Kurdish people
within a given country, a flexible combination of the two main principles of international Law: the right
of nations to self-determination and the territorial integrity of countries. A fairly streamlined democratic
administration was established in the Kurdish region, along with the major civil society establishments,
independent media, dozens of political parties and hundreds of public organizations. However, the ISIS
Islamists are determined to dismantle the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, transforming it into a Sunnite dictatorship.
The methodology of this study is based on a systemic, structural-functional and comparativepolitical
approaches, methods of induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis and observation. In this situation,
it is important for Russia to keep, if not expand its presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. The prospects of
further cooperation of Russia with Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey depend on the fullness of Russian-Kurdish
relations. Erbil has long become an independent player in the regional and international politics, and this
factor needs to be considered in Russian foreign policy and economy. It seems that, during the period of
Russian cautiousness towards Iraqi Kurdistan and building relations with Erbil with an eye on Baghdad
is closing to an end. The breaking point was the meeting of Russian President V. V. Putin with the Kurdish
president Basud Barzani in February 2013, and the creation of an Islamic khalifat in Syria and Iraq.
Keywords:
conflict studies, foreign policy, Iraqi Kurdistan, Barzani, Iraq, regional politics, geopolitics, ISIS, conflict.