Starovoitov V.G., Krupnov Y.A., Eremin V.V., Zolotarev E.V., Lapenkova N.V. —
Development and Use of the Expert Assessment Method for Ranking Threats to the National Security of the Russian Federation
// National Security. – 2022. – ¹ 6.
– P. 35 - 48.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0668.2022.6.39169
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/nbmag/article_39169.html
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Abstract: The subject of the research is the method of expert assessments for ranking threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. The object of research is the process of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation. The following expert methods are considered in the article: direct placement method; method of analysis of hierarchies; method of expert ranking of factors influencing the result. In this study, the existing approaches to the activities of expert groups based on the method of ranking factors are considered in more detail. Within the framework of this method, factors are ordered according to the degree of manifestation of their properties and influence on the ultimate goal (national security) in ascending or descending order. The method is used when it is impossible to quantify the factors that determine the course of processes in socio-economic systems. The scientific novelty of the use of expert approaches is substantiated by the authors by the lack of necessary statistical information on the quantitative characteristics of the relationship between threats to the national security of the Russian Federation and the factors that form them, as well as by the possibility of filling this gap by expert means. The article presents the results of a survey of 23 experts - specialists in the field of national and economic security on the ranking of threats identified in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the use of the method of expert assessments for ranking threats on a point scale makes it possible to determine the most significant and urgent threats to national security based on the experience and knowledge of highly professional experts. The method is simple, understandable and convenient for decision makers, and gives them the opportunity to quickly take measures to minimize and neutralize threats to national security in order to further strengthen it. The technology of forming an expert group and conducting an online survey of experts can be widely used in Russian practice in solving problems to ensure the national security of the country.
Starovoitov V.G., Silvestrov S.N., Troshin D.V., Selivanov A.I., Lapenkova N.V. —
The problems of monitoring and assessing the state of economic security of the Russian Federation
// Security Issues. – 2020. – ¹ 3.
– P. 76 - 87.
DOI: 10.25136/2409-7543.2020.3.33676
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/nb/article_33676.html
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Abstract: Monitoring and assessment of the state of economic security are indented for control purposes over the achievement of goals and objectives established by the Economic Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. The government policy measures aimed at reduction of negative impact of the detected challenges and threats to economic security, prevention and minimization of risks and possible damage to national economy are formed based on the results of monitoring and assessment of the state of economic security. Identification of the problems of monitoring and assessment of the state of economic security of the Russian Federation and their resolution would improve the quality and effectiveness of administrative measures aimed at overcoming the crisis phenomena and ensuring economic growth in the country, which is a relevant scientific-applied task. The article presents the results of analysis of the information-analytical materials on assessment of the state of economic security, provided by the participants of the monitoring of state of economic security (over 30 bodies of state and corporate administration). Assessment is carried out on adaptation of information and analytical materials of the state of economic security to the usage as database for explication of simulation model and conduct of simulation modeling of the state of economic security in different economic sectors. The author identifies the mistakes made by the participants of the monitoring and assessment of economic security in the context of preparation of information, and analytical materials essential for the assessment of economic security in different economic sectors and drafting a report of the Government of the Russian Federation to the President of the Russian Federation. The measures for resolving the indicated problems are proposed.