Abstract: This article examines the potential precursors for an irregular change of power (coup, revolution, impeachment, etc.) for the purpose of its possible forecasting. It is assumed that several years prior to an irregular change of power, tension of the elite should increase. The elite tension is assessed by public tension using the previously developed mathematical model. The latter is determined using the normalized homicide rate as an indicator. The article examines 14 cases of irregular change of power in the eleven countries. Identical values of the constants of model were applied to all countries for more detailed forecasting formalization. In ten out of fourteen cases, the estimates of tension of the elite obtained by the proposed method, demonstrate noticeable increase (by more than 10%) in five years preceding the change of power, or two significant run-ups n tension of the elite over same five years Implementation of such approach allowed to accurately predict an untimely change of power in 71% of the considered cases The proposed method, along with other existing methods, may be valuable for predicting the political crises that are highly likely to end in the irregular change of power.

Abstract: Dynamics of the strike movement in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries is analyzed. Multiple statistical data on workers’ fighting for their rights in this period provides for effective use of mathematical modeling to better understand the causes for workers’ protest activity increase that was especially high in 1903. In particular, one can evaluate the role of activists in the strike movement development as well as the influence of repressions on activists’ popularity. The mathematical model by Andreev A.Y. and Borodkin L.I. has been modified to describe the interaction of authorities, activists and workers. The use of the modified model to describe the strike movement dynamics is given as an example. To test the model’s adequacy the calculation data were compared with corresponding statistical indicators. The results demonstrate that the model is rather good at describing the changing strike activity in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. When the influence of activists is generally low (1895-1899), it accounts for 10-20% of the strike movement. When it reaches the critical point, the role of activists in the strike movement growth increases sharply and becomes dominating in 1902 when this point is overcome. The model is also correct at describing the general trend of decreasing repressions by the authorities and the growth of activists’ influence.