Muraveva A. —
Event Study Analysis of Political and Economical Factors Influencing Bank Notes Exchange Rate Dynamics in the First Third of the 19th c.
// Historical informatics. – 2020. – ¹ 3.
– P. 1 - 20.
DOI: 10.7256/2585-7797.2020.3.33951
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/istinf/article_33951.html
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Abstract: The article studies Russian ruble bank notes dynamics in the first half of the 19th century. In particular, it addresses political and economical factors for this dynamics and empirically evaluates the influence of important military, political and economical events on bank notes exchange rate. The author analyzes the direction and the intensity of this influence during the period which is up to three months beginning with the initial start of these factors.
To form time series of the bank notes exchange rate from 1800 to 1839 the article examines Moskovskie Vedomosti that published Moscow stock exchange rates schedules as well as Sankt-Peterburzhskie Vedomosti and Kommercheskaya Gazeta which published Saint Petersburg stock exchange rates schedules. Time series analysis of daily exchange rates has shown that they were more sensitive to endogenous and economical events rather than exogenous and political ones. The study has found out that an exchange rate is more sensitive to internal political and economical reasons rather than external political and political ones. For instance, the sensitivity to cholera was stronger than that to wars. One sees that stock exchange demonstrated more sensitivity to events hindering foreign trade and uncertainty as far as foreign policy is concerned. In addition, it has been found out that Moscow exchange rate was much more sensitive than Saint Petersburg one. However, the later demonstrated longer sensitivity to events.
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Muraveva A. —
Statistical Analysis of Saint-Petersburg Exchange Rate Dynamics in Relation to the Leading European Financial Centers in 1801-1839
// Historical informatics. – 2020. – ¹ 2.
– P. 88 - 99.
DOI: 10.7256/2585-7797.2020.2.33484
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/istinf/article_33484.html
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Abstract: The article studies the monetary policy of the Russian state in the second half of the 18th - the first half of the 19th centuries, in particular, the dynamics of exchange rates. The exchange rate is actually the currency rate and demonstrates the purchasing power of a country’s money in relation to that in another country. On the basis of primary data of the Russian press, the author has collected data on quotes for the subsequent statistical analysis and used correlation matrices and regression models to identify factors that influenced the analysis as well as internal dependencies. The main research method is the statistical one accompanied by the inductive approach. The issue of the Russian exchange rate dynamics in the early 19th century has not been properly studies in historiography. The article demonstrates that exchange rates do not depend much on the volume of international trade or, more precisely, on the balance of foreign trade. Exchange rates have weak correlation with the foreign trade balance and statistically insignificant one with the balance of trade with particular countries. The explanatory power of regression models with economical characteristics being independent factors has R² not more than 20-25 %. It must be noted that no reliable dependence of exchange rates on wheat export from Russia has been found while their dependence on gold import was statistically significant as far as Amsterdam and Hamburg are concerned (at the same time the correlation of gold import with wheat export is significant and positive).
Muraveva A. —
On the Question of the Cessation of Bank Note Exchanges in the Russian Empire
// History magazine - researches. – 2019. – ¹ 2.
– P. 116 - 127.
DOI: 10.7256/2454-0609.2019.2.28217
URL: https://en.e-notabene.ru/hsmag/article_28217.html
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Abstract: The subject of this study is the monetary-loan policy of the Russian government in the second half of the 18th - first half of the 19th centuries. The object of this research is the assignation ruble. The author examines in detail the question of the termination of the free exchange of the assignation ruble for silver and copper coins. Particular attention is focused on the sources from the archive "Special Office of the Credit Branch of the Ministry of Finance". By all appearances, the article's author was the first to study some of the archive documents. In these sources, interesting data was uncovered concerning the correspondence of the Assignation Bank and promissory offices with the Ministry of Finance, which made it possible to draw conclusions regarding the date of the cessation of the assignation exchange. The study's main research method is the historical-genetic method of research and the inductive approach to problem examination. The identified data suggests the existence of the assignation exchange for coins at least before the start of the Napoleonic wars, and in the course of further research, the author hopes to clarify the date of the cessation of this exchange.