Abstract: The article proposes an improved model of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index dynamics and constructs a similar model of Helsinki Stock Exchange index on the basis of published results of a counterfactual model predicting the hypothetical dynamics of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index after July 1914 under the assumption that there is no war. The author hypothesizes that internal economic factors that determined the downward trend of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index also influenced the dynamics of Helsinki Stock Exchange index under the assumption that there was no war. To test this hypothesis the author has constructed (in the R software environment) the ARIMA statistical model that is an integrated autoregressive-moving average model which extends the ARMA model for non-stationary time series. The constructed counterfactual models proved that while the influence of pre-war factors remained, the dynamics of both indices did not show similar trends thus suggesting that the Finnish stock market was developing without any noticeable look at St. Petersburg Stock Exchange and inner economic factors of the Russian Empire.

Abstract: The article describes how the author forms a counterfactual model forecasting the dynamics of Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange index after July 1914 before the war which radically changed the factor role of prewar dynamics. The author hypothesizes that the decreasing trend of St. Petersburg Stock Exchange index during the last prewar year was caused by internal economic factors which could determine further dynamics of the index when no war is assumed. To test this hypothesis the author has developed ARIMA statistical model within the R software environment. This model is an integrated model of autoregressive moving average which is an extension of the ARMA model for nonstationary time series. The counterfactual model has demonstrated that in case the influence of the pre-war period factors continued, the dynamics of the index over the next year would tend to decrease, even if the war did not begin. Thus, one can speak of the beginning recession phase in the cyclical development of Russian industry in 1913.

Abstract: The process of opening the State Bank of Russia and private Russian banks branches in the Grand Duchy of Finland in the early 20th century represented one of the most important steps to financial integration of an almost autonomous region into the Russian Empire. This process experienced some troubles and problems related to the Finnish opposition and complicated domestic situation in Russia. It had not shown any results because of the start of the First World War. However, to some extent, it managed to unlock its potential. This research has become possible with the help of office archives of Governor-General and stats-secretariat of the Grand Duchy of Finland. Their thorough examination allowed the uncovering of factors, main steps and results of Russian Bank operations in Finland. In addition to the fact that this article is the first to introduce some of the sources, it can also give an indepth understanding of complex relations between the Russian government and the Grand Duchy. The study of an attempt to financially rather than forcefully integrate periphery, that was moving further and further away in cultural and economic terms, is extremely important for contextualizing and redefining the already existing ideas of core actions towards newly annexed territories in the pre-revolutionary time.