Abstract: The subject of research is mathematical software prognostic evaluation of functional reliability of the pilot. The object of research is the functional reliability of the professional activities of the pilot. The authors consider in detail such aspects of the topic as automated assessment of the risk of an aviation event due to the release of flight parameters for operational limitations, understanding by the risk assessment the probabilistic measure of the occurrence of an aviation event of a fixed degree of severity due to exceeding operational limitations of the aircraft, in flight such an event (depending on the severity effects) is classified as an aviation event, subject to the investigation. The research methodology is based on the system approach and unites methods of probability theory, mathematical statistics, aviation cybernetics, psychophysiology of flight work. The main result of the study is a software-implemented technology for predicting the functional reliability of the pilot, implemented, allowing to implement an individual a priori risk assessment of an aviation event (incident) for a group of causative factors "crew" in the most critical stages of flight (takeoff and landing) Accumulated statistics of aviation events caused by the release of flight parameters for operational limitations, which is important To ensure proactive management of safety levels in the airline. The novelty of the research is that the technology of predictive estimation of the functional reliability of the pilot is developed on the basis of the concept of acceptable risk of an accident.

Abstract: As the most unfavorable functional (psychophysiological) state of airline pilots, fatigue is being considered from the point of view of the recommended international standards of risk management safety. The authors of the article describe the basic types of fatigue and their typical features with respect to flying. The authors also give the description of the current state of pilot fatigue management for the purpose of ensuring flight safety in civil aviation. They define and describe the methodical approach to the flight safety management based on the guidelines of  the International Association of Civil Aviation. The research methods included: industrial psychology, engineering psychology, ergonomics, industrial psychophysiology, health risk assessment, life safety and risk management. The main contribution made by the authors to the development of the topic under research is the justification of the urgent need for the implementation of the mechanisms of the pilot fatique management recommended by the International Association of Civil Aviation. The apparent advantage of this approach is an opportunity to carry out a multi-level safety strategy allowing to manage the risks associated with fatigue regardless of their psychophysiological causes. This creates the prospects for implementing this strategy and providing psychophysiological safety in any sphere of navigation.