USAID activities in Armenia and Moldova in the 2020s.

Perepelkin Kirill Alekseevich ORCID: 0009-0008-3103-7814 Student; Department of Modern and Contemporary History; N.I. Lobachevsky National Research University 603000, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod region, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanova str., 2 kyrilperepelkin@yandex.ru

Gorozhanin Ivan Aleksandrovich Student; Department of History and Theory of International Relations; N. I. Lobachevsky National Research University 603000, Russia, Nizhny Novgorod region, Nizhny Novgorod, Ulyanova str., 2 mr.gorozhanin2001@mail.ru

Introduction

The United States of America, as a great Power, has significant interests around the globe. Washington uses significant resources to pursue policy towards other states, in particular: diplomatic efforts, military cooperation, economic cooperation or severance of economic ties (including the imposition of sanctions), various types of information companies, work with the local population, program financing, educational ties, etc. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) occupies an important place in the system of bodies for implementing foreign policy and exerting influence.

This Agency was established in 1961 and is a structural unit of the State Department. USAID operates in most countries of the world and works in several areas: economic development (including industry and agriculture), cooperation with the United States in education, support for healthcare, assistance in infrastructure development, and the promotion of democracy and human rights around the world. The importance of the Agency in the implementation of the foreign policy strategy is confirmed by the amount of funding from the state budget, which amounts to almost $ 30 billion, that is, half of the total budget of the US Department of State ^[11]. In addition, the Agency is "one of the main institutions of American public diplomacy" ^[7].

USAID's activities mainly cover undeveloped or developing countries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Agency began to work actively in the post-Soviet space, in particular, in Armenia and Moldova ^{[3, p. 227]}. At the moment, these two countries are priority targets for USAID, as the pro-Western course of governments creates positive conditions for the Agency's activities.

This topic is quite relevant, as the changes in the foreign policy of Armenia and Moldova are of great importance to Moscow, because they affect important interests of Russia, as evidenced by the extensive comments of representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Objects and methods of research

The object of the study is the areas of work of USAID. The subject of the study is specific programs implemented under the supervision of the US Agency. The purpose of the study is to review and evaluate the activities of USAID in Armenia and Moldova. The research is based on a systematic approach, a systematic approach that allows USAID to be considered as one of the components of the US foreign policy strategy.

USAID activities in Armenia

USAID has been operating in Armenia since 1992, "moving from partnership with international organizations to partnership directly with local organizations and the Armenian government" ^[10]. During this time, the agency alone provided assistance in the amount of $ 1.2 billion, the United States is the largest donor to Armenia, which is connected, among other things, with the Armenian influential lobby ^{[5, p. 197]}. At the same time, the Agency's activities can quickly adapt to current conditions, as demonstrated by the pandemic situation ^{[4, p. 351]}.

Direct collaboration can have a direct impact by increasing the level and number of contacts between American employees and local government and non-governmental organizations. Currently, USAID is implementing 22 projects in the country. All these projects are designed to provide "Armenia with an opportunity to promote its Euro-Atlantic integration and strengthen its resilience to harmful influences" ^[10]. The source of "harmful influence" is most likely Russia.

In Armenia, USAID pursues largely standard goals for the development of democratic institutions and a market economy, as well as "closer integration with the Euro-Atlantic community" ^{[9, p. 3]}. This primarily serves Washington's interests, as directly stated in the Armenia Country Development Cooperation Strategy 2020-2025 (Armenia Country Development Cooperation Strategy 2020-2025). The document mentions the Velvet Revolution of 2018 several times only in a positive way. It is characterized as the beginning of Armenia's true democratic path, the 2018 elections are called "free and fair," and the United States and, in particular, USAID should support this process. The following priority areas are indicated: economic development, especially the private sector, increased investment, cooperation in the field of healthcare, work with civil society and government structures in the field of reforms, the fight against corruption, reducing human trafficking, and some others.

At the same time, financial assistance to Armenia from USAID is provided only in those areas that are beneficial to Washington. For example, the development of the Armenian economy and the private sector aims to reduce Yerevan's dependence on Moscow in the economic sphere, which is called diversification in the Strategy. Failure to comply with American recommendations may "affect U.S. assistance to Armenia" ^{[9, p. 3]}. The problems that the Armenian leadership should pay attention to include "harassment, discrimination, and violence against women (including domestic violence) and members of the LGBT community" ^{[9, p. 8]}. In this context, "malicious influence" is mentioned, which is one of USAID's priorities to help resist. The text does not say who provides it, but it is obvious that Russia is primarily meant.

USAID strives to reform Armenia, but these reforms must meet the interests of the United States, with real and potential financial assistance being the main incentive for reforms. This situation is reminiscent of the actions of the IMF, according to whose "recipes" reforms were carried out in Russia in the 1990s. The result of deep cooperation between Armenia and the United States may not be the diversification of economic and political ties, but the gradual subordination and dependence of Yerevan on Washington and Brussels in the medium term.

USAID also sponsors the media sector, in particular, the Center for Media Initiatives. As noted by domestic researchers, American, mainly through USAID, "grant activities are aimed primarily at educating public and political figures who are ready to follow the instructions of the US Department of State" ^{[6, p. 169]}. According to Rebecca White, Acting Director of the USAID mission in Armenia, $15 million was invested in this program in 2018-2023, which "represents the most significant investment in the Armenian media sector to date" ^[8]. The directions of this program are combined with those outlined in the USAID documents, the work is carried out in cooperation with the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports ^[14]. The implementation involves organizing and conducting various trainings, seminars, and training programs. For example, the Expanding Production of Independent Content 2022-2024 is aimed at "filling existing information gaps in the provision of content and increasing resistance to manipulative narratives in Armenia" ^[13]. At the same time, its implementation will be carried out jointly with Internews Network, another American company, and the program budget is 260 thousand dollars. The main focus is on online media, as they currently have the largest audience reach, especially among young people, who are the most suggestible group.

Another project, Youth in Action: Youth Empowerment and Leadership Development in Armenia 2023-2026, is aimed at the same age group ^[28]. The difference is that in the second case, the youth will be a direct participant in various trainings. Much attention is also paid to news analysis and the development of critical thinking. Competitions are also held within its framework, for example, "Tvapatum 2023".

One of USAID's partners is the Pink Armenia non–governmental organization, an LGBT community organization. Their goal is to "create a safe space for LGBT people." As noted in the USAID reports, there is no positive attitude towards sex minorities in Armenia, which is negatively assessed by the American side. NGO Pink implements several projects that are funded by the governments of Great Britain and Sweden ^[16]. One of the main activities of this organization is human rights. It includes participation in court cases on the side of the accused, as well as the involvement of international organizations in these cases, in particular, European ones, which are highly likely to protect LGBT people within the information and legal framework. Pink also publishes various reports on discrimination against LGBT people and the rights of sexual minorities. The dissemination of such organizations and their ideas will contribute to Armenia's involvement in the cultural orbit of the West. In addition to funding and collaboration, Pink uses Western works as a basis, for example, CTRN (Change That's Right Now) APA ^[27] or American government reports ^[25].

Other organizations include the Association of Public Finance Workers, which has been cooperating with USAID since 1999 ^[29].

As part of the fight against corruption and the implementation of the "recommendations identified by the U.S. Government Accountability Office during the needs assessment," this Office provides technical assistance to the Accounting Chamber of Armenia. In this way, the United States can influence the work of Armenian government agencies.

Thus, USAID's activities in Armenia are largely focused on information, cultural and educational spheres. The goals of this work are not only the development of Armenia, but also the reduction of the "harmful influence" by which Washington means Russia. USAID-funded programs primarily affect the Armenian population, who are being taught Western values and lifestyles. Subsequently, people who have completed these programs can join the government or Parliament of Armenia, that is, become persons who will determine the direction of state policy.

USAID activities in Moldova

As in the case of Armenia, USAID is active in Moldova. The main areas of activity in both cases are similar: the development of democracy and market relations, the fight against corruption and harmful influence, and direct assistance to the public and private sectors. Since 1992 (the beginning of cooperation between the American Agency and Moldova), more than $640 million has been invested in the country ^[15]. The Agency's activities are the most significant and intensive, at least in appearance, among other American organizations pursuing largely similar goals (the National Institute of Democracy, the International Republican Institute, the Soros Foundation) ^{[1, p. 3]}.

Moldovan President M. Sandu highly appreciates the activities of USAID, as this Agency, according to her, "contributed to the transformation of bilateral relations between the Republic of Moldova and the United States into a strong friendship" ^[18]. This is also evidenced by her participation in various conferences organized by USAID ^[23]. In particular, in May 2023, in connection with the termination of the powers of the head of the USAID mission in Moldova, Scott Hocklander, Sandu awarded him the "Ordinul de Onoare" ("Order of Honor") and expressed "gratitude to USAID for helping the country overcome the energy, migration and economic crises" ^[21]. A high-level meeting was organized with Jeff Bryan, also a representative of USAID in Moldova ^[19]. Sandu meets with representatives of the American establishment quite often, especially with the heads of USAID. So, in May 2023, she met with Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, Republican Congressman Mike Lawler and Erin McKee, USAID Deputy Assistant Administrator for the Bureau of Europe and Eurasia ^[20]. Two months later, the Moldovan president met with McKee again. During 2022, several meetings were held with Samantha Power.

The Building Social Cohesion program was planned to be implemented within a year, but due to the start of its validity period, it was increased 4 times (from 2022 to 2026). The contractor is the American company Management Systems International, whose goals are: "1) strengthening supporters of European integration and democratic reform processes and 2) uniting Moldovans around a common European identity" ^[12]. These goals will be achieved through grants to local media and public organizations. Thus, Washington seeks to increase support for Sandu's political course by drawing Moldova into the EU's orbit of influence. In particular, due to such programs, support for the pro-Western course in Moldova has increased somewhat in recent years, although it is not supported by the majority. Combined with the fact that the government (the President, the government and the parliament) At least until 2025, there will be supporters of developing relations with Western countries, and the information influence on the population will increase.

The Financial Sector Transparency Activity (FSTA) program (2019-2024, $9.5 million) is also being implemented in this area, designed to increase the transparency of government agencies in Moldova, which will lead to "increased public confidence in the supervisory authorities." If the supervisory authorities were not headed by supporters of deepening relations with the West, then such financing would be impossible, since it would run counter to Washington's interests. Supporting Entrepreneurship Education in Europe and Eurasia (Georgia, Serbia, Moldova, and Macedonia) (2017-2026, $1.2 million) consists of educational programs for schoolchildren and students, which "will enable partnerships with local and national authorities, NGOs, community groups, and private sector enterprises."

Economic support consists of a number of programs designed mainly for a long time, up to a decade. The Future Technology Activity (FTA) is being implemented in 2021-2026 and has a budget of over $52 million. This program "aims to increase competitiveness and expand integration into the global market of the transformative sectors of the economy in Moldova – information and communication technologies, mechanical engineering, light industry, creative industries and digital media." As part of such initiatives, it is unlikely that developed industries with competitive world-class products will be created, but an improvement in the situation is possible. The free trade agreement, which includes the gradual abolition of duties between Moldova and the EU, is particularly noted ^[2].

The Moldova Institutional and Structural Reforms Activity (MISRA) program is planned to be implemented in 2022-2027 with a budget of $35 million. The main objective of this program is to stimulate reforms in the economic sectors, which should create conditions for economic growth. Another program, Rural Competitiveness and Resilience Activity (RCRA), is designed for the same period (49.7 million dollars), but it is aimed at developing agriculture and tourism, which "will help build the potential of Moldova's agricultural sector for exports to the European Union ... to enter new markets outside of Belarus and Russia" ^[26]. Given the level of development of Moldova's economy and its main export products, mainly agricultural, Moldova's export opportunities to the EU are severely limited.

The development of the film industry should also be noted, in particular the film "Carbon", shown as part of the "Caravanei Filmelor Brave" with the financial support of USAID Moldova ^[22]. M. Sandu was present at its screening. This film demonstrates a negative attitude towards the USSR and Transnistria, the main characters of the film are going to fight in the conflict zone on the side of Chisinau. "Access to high–quality books, films and plays is vital for building a society with decent, free-thinking people who can distinguish good from evil," said Maya Sandu. The president's understanding of "quality films" also reflects the direction of her policy, and evil, in her understanding, means Russia.

Washington's work in the energy sector should be noted separately. Due to the foreign policy course of the PAS party and M. Sandu, aimed at severing ties with Russia, including in the field of gas supplies, energy prices in Moldova have increased sharply. In this regard, European countries and the United States have begun to provide energy assistance to Chisinau. In particular, the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) program, designed for 2019-2029, and including financing in the amount of $ 29.11 million, is designed to support lending in the field of energy and ICT. The Moldova Energy Security Activity (MESA) program is also involved in the energy sector, which, despite the fact that it is designed for a shorter period from 2022 to 2026, includes more funding in the amount of almost $ 60 million. Its main goal is to deepen the integration of the Moldovan and European energy systems.

Also, in accordance with the agreement signed on June 30, 2023, the Washington administration will allocate gratuitous resources to Moldova in the amount of $300 million ^[17]. The purpose of this assistance is outlined in a standard way for the United States – the development of democracy, civil society, independent media, as well as strengthening the energy sector independent of Russia. However, as a result, Moldova may become dependent on the EU in the medium term. USAID also provided Moldova with $30 million "to overcome the energy crisis" ^[24].

The Critical Infrastructure Digitalization and Resilience (CIDR) program (2021-2026, $1.7 million) is designed to enhance Moldova's cybersecurity, including through training and support for the Cybersecurity Academy. In the field of cybersecurity, Chisinau cooperates with the United States through NATO, where various trainings and consultations are also conducted within the framework of the programs of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Thus, USAID's activities in Moldova are focused more on Moldova's economic integration with the EU and increasing support for a pro-Western course among the population.

Conclusions

USAID's activities in Armenia and Moldova are multidirectional and include such areas as economics (including agricultural finance), education, reforms, support for pro-Western media and information companies. In general, the work of the American Agency is aimed at gradually changing the mood in society and in political structures in order to influence them later, as well as economic integration with Western countries, which ultimately should make the economies of the countries dependent on Washington and Brussels. Given the drift in the foreign policy strategy of Moldova and Armenia, USAID (and other similar American and European bodies) influenced public sentiment, as there were no significant protests.

It can be predicted that the Agency's activities will not undergo any significant changes in the coming years. There may be a reduction in USAID funding from the state budget, which is associated with the assumption of the post of President of the United States. However, there is a high probability that there will be no qualitative changes. The events of recent months in Georgia indicate that there is a possibility of restricting the activities of pro-Western elements, including NGOs funded by USAID.

In Moldova, which is a parliamentary republic, elections will be held in November 2025, following which the victory of the opposition forces, primarily the PSRM, is quite likely, but even in this case, one should not expect a harsh policy towards USAID or other similar organizations. While Georgia shares a border with Russia and access to the sea, which gives it room for maneuver, Moldova is extremely limited in terms of geography, as it has no access to the sea and borders only Romania and Ukraine. In many ways, Chisinau's policy will depend on the outcome of its elections.

Armenia is also a parliamentary republic, which will hold elections in 2026. From our point of view, the attitude of the current Armenian authorities towards USAID will not change in any way before the elections, as Nikol Pashinyan has been actively developing his partnership with the West over the past year. If the opposition forces, determined to deepen partnership with Russia, win the elections, it is possible to limit the activities of pro-Western forces in the country, following the example of Georgia.