Demographic security of the Altai Territory: results of statistical analysis

Sayutina Irina Petrovna ORCID: 0009-0005-6802-2307 Postgraduate student; Institute of Humanities; Altai State University Head of the Department; Department of Social Protection of the population in the Shelabolikhnsky district 659050, Russia, Altai Territory, Shelabolikha village, Pushkin str., 22 irinasauti@rambler.ru

Cherepanova Mariya Ivanovna ORCID: 0000-0001-8892-837X Doctor of Sociology Professor; Institute of Humanities; Altai State University 659002, Russia, Altai Territory, Barnaul, Lenin str., 105, sq. 26 cher_67@mail.ru

Introduction

The social significance and timeliness of the scientific discourse on the study of depopulation trends is due to an increase in the rate of decline of the Russian population, especially in the border regions, which make up more than 70% of the country's territory. The natural decline of the population, as well as the intensive migration outflow from the border areas of the country to its European part, allows us to talk about the "zeroing out" of the Russian regions.

As of January 1, 2024, according to Rosstat, Russia had a permanent population of 146.2 million people. This number has decreased compared to the record high of almost 148.6 million people recorded in early 1993. It was in 1993, for the first time after World War II, that a decrease in the population was noted, after which, starting in 1994, its stable decrease was observed, reaching 142.7 million by the beginning of 2009 ^[1]. The subsequent period of slow population growth only temporarily interrupted the permanent trend towards a decrease in the number of inhabitants, and therefore demographic problems moved from the field of peripheral issues to the center of political discussions ^[2].

In 2006, in his address to the Federal Assembly, the President of the Russian Federation raised the issue of demographic challenges, describing them as critical and pointing to the demographic problem as the most significant for the country at that time ^[3]. In response to this call, in October 2007, an action plan was approved to improve the demographic situation, set out in the Concept of Demographic Policy until 2025. Among the initiatives designed to motivate the population to procreate, the introduction of maternity capital can be noted. Since 2007, this has been a significant incentive for many young families. Between 2009 and 2017, there was a steady increase in Russia's population, which grew by 1.8 million people, reaching 144.5 million by the beginning of 2018, representing an increase of 1.3%.

The use of maternity capital has proved to be a motivating factor for a number of families seeking to improve their living conditions. According to a number of demographers, including V.V. Elizarov, state support measures aimed at stimulating fertility, although slightly, optimize fertility rates in the regions of the country ^[4].

For example, the analysis of statistics showed an increase in the total fertility rate from 2007 to 2015 from 1,416 to 1,777. However, since 2016, the total fertility rate has slowly declined.

Thus, the demographic situation in Russia is characterized by a decrease in the birth rate and a slight increase in life expectancy.

The Altai Territory has its own peculiarities of the demographic situation, characterized by a pronounced outflow of population from rural areas and lower birth rates in comparison with the national level.

The Altai Territory has a certain regional potential for the economic development of the territory. In particular, the developed agricultural and industrial complex of the region can optimize the modern policy of import substitution. The development of a tourism cluster is also one of the advantages of the territory of the region. However, the regional labor market has been facing an acute shortage of qualified personnel over the past decades, and the number of able-bodied people in the region is constantly decreasing ^[5].

Thus, a systematic scientific study of the demographic situation in the Altai Territory is a prerequisite for making effective management decisions. The results of the statistical analysis of the features of regional depopulation will present scientifically based conditions and factors for the development of targeted programs to optimize demographic processes in the Altai Territory.

Review of scientific literature, domestic and foreign studies

As part of the analysis of the current socio-economic situation, key attention should be paid to the direct correlation between the level of socio-economic development and the sustainability of national and regional security ^[6]. Today, the dynamics of economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment and per capita income directly affect the social well-being of society, the ability of the state to provide for the basic needs of citizens, as well as its international credibility and defense capability. Modern economic dynamics is characterized by a high degree of volatility caused by a variety of reasons ^[7]. The key challenge in this context is the digitalization of the economy, which requires significant investments in technological development, but at the same time provides new opportunities for growth. The intensification of the processes of globalization and regionalization of the economy poses the task for States to adapt to changing global conditions, which requires flexibility in domestic and foreign policy.

The demographic situation has a basic impact on the socio-economic stability and security of the country and its regions. Research by domestic and foreign scientists confirms the relationship between the demographic situation and national security, revealing the diverse and profound consequences of demographic changes. So I.A. Vetrenko believes that demographic security is the potential ability of a society to preserve its national gene pool and increase it in accordance with those norms that characterize the average world level" ^[8].

Foreign studies describe a close correlation between the demographic situation and national security in the region. For example, The RAND Corporation (2018) in the study "The Demographics of National Security" proved that a decrease in the birth rate and an aging population can lead to a decrease in the workforce, a decrease in economic competitiveness and a weakening of the country's defense capability ^[9]. Global Strategic Affairs (2020) researchers in the work "The Demographic Challenge to National Security" emphasized that the change in the sex ratio, as a result of the ill-conceived demographic policy of "one child" in the People's Republic of China, determined the escalation of social tension and stimulated new challenges to the country's national security ^[10]. In the study "The Future of the World Economy" (2021), it is noted that an increase in life expectancy and an aging population will lead to an increase in pension and health care costs, which can weaken the economy and pose a threat to the national security of the country ^[11].

The research presented by us demonstrates the close relationship between the demographic situation and national security. Consequently, demographic changes determine a significant impact on the economy, social structure, defense capability and sustainable development of any country as a whole. For example, accelerated aging of the population, reduction of the labor force, migration processes – all this not only changes the social structure of society, but also stimulates the problems of economic development of a region or country. In particular, an increase in the number of elderly people requires an increase in spending on health and social security, which, in conditions of limited budgetary resources, can lead to a reduction in investments in other key sectors of the economy ^[12].

The problem of migration, as an important component of the demographic situation, deserves special attention. On the one hand, migration growth is able to compensate for negative demographic trends in developed countries and depressed regions of Russia, on the other hand, it can lead to social conflicts, increased nationalist sentiments and an increase in the burden on social systems, which generally reduces the level of national and regional security ^[13]. Thus, migration processes, contributing to solving the problem of labor shortage, create new challenges for the adaptation and integration of migrants, which can lead to social tension and conflicts. Such demographic challenges require States and international organizations to take measures to attract qualified migrants and develop a balanced migration policy.

Population decline caused by natural processes is a basic factor affecting the economic and social stability of regions. The reduction of the population leads to a weakening of the economic potential and a decrease in the country's defense capability.

In today's society, where globalization and international integration play a key role in the development of states, socio-economic factors are of particular importance in the context of national and regional security ^[14]. The relationship between socio-economic development and security is becoming increasingly obvious, as low living standards, high social inequality and unemployment can lead to social tension, internal conflicts and even a threat to the sovereignty of the State. Considering socio-economic factors as components of national and regional security, it should be noted that sustainable economic development is a fundamental condition for ensuring stability in society. Economic growth contributes to an increase in household incomes, poverty reduction and improvement of public welfare, which leads to a decrease in conflict potential and minimizes social tension. Thus, economic initiatives aimed at improving the quality of life can be considered as investments in the security of the state.

Summing up the theoretical part of the proposed publication, it is necessary to state that the socio-economic and demographic situation plays a key role in ensuring national and regional security. An effective economic, social and demographic policy aimed at maintaining sustainable development serves as an important foundation for strengthening the internal and external security of the State.

Research methodology and methods

The subject of the study was the social mechanisms of depopulation trends of human capital, namely the birth rate, mortality, and features of the migration decline of the population of the Altai Territory. The methodological basis of the study includes an integrated approach to the analysis of the functioning of human capital in a regional context. The following basic principles were tested: the consistency and interdependence of all indicators of the demographic development of the region; the relationship of quantitative and qualitative determinants associated with the vital activity of the population in the region; taking into account the socio-economic conditionality of regional demographic trends.

The research proposed in the article is based on a multidisciplinary comprehensive analysis, including structural, functional, demographic approaches in combination with a secondary statistical analysis of the main reproductive indicators of the region's population. The methodology and technique of the study included the analysis of statistical information. In addition, the following research methods were used: theoretical analysis, secondary analysis of Russian and foreign sociological and demographic studies, statistical analysis of the main demographic indicators, forecasting. The proposed methodological and methodological basis of the study made it possible to identify regional features of the development of socio-demographic processes of the population of the Altai Territory, predict socio-demographic trends in the region, and substantiate current directions of state demographic policy.

The results of the study

Let's present the brief results of a statistical study conducted in the Altai Territory, a typical subsidized region of Russian society. The information base of the study was made up of regional statistical data collected from official sources. The main sources of information were: Rosstat data for the period from 2018 to 2023, including indicators of population, natural movement (fertility, mortality), migration, as well as information on the socio-economic development of the Altai Territory.

Statistical collections and reports of Altaykraystat for the same period, containing more detailed information about demographic processes in the region, including basic socio-demographic indicators such as gender, age, birth rate, mortality, etc.

In the Altai Territory, according to official state statistics, as of January 1, 2024, there were about 2,317 thousand people ^[1].

The dynamics of the population in the Altai Territory from 2018 to 2023 is shown in Table 1.

Table 1.

Population dynamics in the Altai Territory from 2018 to 2023

As shown in Table 1, the population of the region has been steadily decreasing since 2018. There is a chronic negative trend of population decline, and with each new year the rate of depopulation of the population is increasing.

In the Siberian Federal District, the most urban regions are, in ascending order, the Irkutsk, Novosibirsk and Kemerovo regions, where the vast majority of the population lives in cities. The proportion of citizens in them ranges from 79% and up to 86% of all residents. The Altai Territory, on the contrary, occupies the highest place in terms of the share of the rural population in the Siberian Federal District (22.9%) and the sixth in the country as a whole (2.7%). The share of the rural population in 2022 amounted to 43.3% of the total population. This feature, in our opinion, determines the difficult demographic situation in the region.

The analysis of the age and gender structure of the population reveals a more detailed picture of the demographic situation of the Altai Territory.

The number of men and women at the beginning of 2024 is shown in table 2.

Table 2.

The number of men and women at the beginning of 2024 in the Altai Territory

As shown in table 2, the region is characterized by an imbalance in the number of men and women, which may also explain the specifics of demographic trends in the region.

Sexual imbalance does not contribute to improving the situation in the marriage and labor market. The reduced number of men reflects their less active participation in labor and professional activities, which usually characterizes the male population.

According to numerous data from socio-demographic Russian studies, it has been proven that males have significantly lower life expectancy than females ^[15]. This trend is also confirmed for the Altai Territory.

Regional demographic trends confirm the all-Russian ones and are as follows:

-the number of the middle-aged population exceeds other numerical cohorts of the population;

-the predominance of the female population over the male population has been revealed;

- with age, the imbalance in the number of men and women in the region increases significantly;

-Altai Territory is the leader in the older age groups of 55-69 and 80+.Thus, the aging of the population in the region is proceeding at a faster pace.

The share of the working-age population (15-59 years old) in Russia is 0.32, and in the Altai Territory - 0.35. The share of the elderly population (60 years and older) in Russia is 0.27, and in the Altai Territory - 0.29. The share of children (under 15 years old) in Russia is 0.27, and in the Altai Territory - 0.29. The total demographic burden (the sum of the share of the elderly and children) in Russia is 0.60, and accordingly in the Altai Territory - 0.64.

Thus, it can be concluded that in the Altai Territory, compared with Russia as a whole, the proportion of the elderly population is slightly higher and, accordingly, the overall demographic burden is higher.

The urban population makes up 56.7% of the total population of the Altai Territory, which is 13.4% more than the share of the rural population. In other words, in the Altai Territory, the urban population exceeds the rural population by only 13.4%.

The share of people aged 60 years and older in the total population of the region is 21% (in the Russian Federation - 20.1%). According to the international criterion (according to the God - Garnier scale), the level of aging of the population in the Altai Territory is very high. The revealed trend is aggravated by the negative balance of natural population growth in the region over the past 10 years, as well as a significant migration outflow of the population to the European regions of the country ^[16].

In the Altai Territory, in 2023, a decrease in mortality was recorded by 9.5% compared to 2022. In particular, 33,924 people died in the region in January-December 2022, and 30,382 people died in the same period in 2023. In the Altai Territory, in 2023, the natural population decline amounted to 13,750 people, which is 2,597 fewer than in 2022 for the same period. In other words, there is a slight positive tendency in the region to reduce the natural population decline.

The main causes of mortality in the Altai Territory are: cardiovascular diseases (597.3 per 100 thousand population); neoplasms (237.9); external causes (135.9), including: Road accidents (10.4); alcohol poisoning (3.3); suicides (18.6); murders (6.1).

In the Altai Territory, a decrease in infant mortality was recorded in January-December 2023. The number of children who died during the first year of life was 67, which is 4 babies less than in the same period in 2022 (71 babies).

However, against the background of the trend of a slight decrease in mortality, there is a decrease in the birth rate by 4.9% in the region. So, in January - December 2023, 16,632 babies were born in the region, which is 945 less than in the same period of 2022.

The indicators of natural population movement in the Altai Territory are shown in Table 3.

Table 3.

Indicators of natural population movement

Thus, the natural movement of the population in the Altai Territory demonstrates a complex picture, where a decrease in the birth rate negatively affects the overall population growth. In addition, another factor is added to this situation, which has a significant impact - migration.

In 2023, the total migration loss of the population amounted to 1,708 people (8.0 people per 10,000 people). During this year, 61861 people left the Altai Territory. The migration increase turned out to be negative and amounted to 3,180 people (14.9 people per 10,000 people). On the contrary, international migration increased (1,472 people) and amounted to: arrivals - 6,027 people, departures - 4,555 people. A similar pattern is observed with non-CIS countries. There is an increase of 115 people here. Despite a number of positive trends, the population decline from the region remains high.

Discussion of the results

The population decline in the Altai Territory is part of a nationwide trend. According to Rosstat, the population of Russia has been declining rapidly for the second year in a row. In other words, a decrease in the population is observed not only in the Altai Territory, but also in other territories of the Russian Federation.

An important factor in the demographic development of the territory is the level of marital status of the population. According to Rosstat, in the Altai Territory there is a drop in the number of registered marriages and, accordingly, divorces. In 2023, 13,905 married couples and 10,843 divorces were recorded (in 2022 – 15,660 and 10,791, respectively).

In the context of analyzing trends in the marital status of the population, the issue of increasing the birth rate, which remains below the national average in the Altai Territory, is of particular relevance. The Government of the Russian Federation, including the President, pays great attention to the issues of fertility and support for families with children. The measures taken are primarily aimed at economic stimulation of such families ^[17].

The State makes it a priority to improve the demographic situation in the country. To this end, measures are being taken to overcome the negative trends associated with a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, as well as measures are being taken to ensure population growth.

In other words, improving demographic indicators is one of the main directions of the state policy of the Russian Federation at the present stage of development of society ^[18].

A necessary condition for achieving demographic goals is to increase the birth rate to a level that ensures expanded reproduction of the population ^[19].

Summing up the discussion of the statistical analysis of demographic processes in the region, it can be stated that the trend towards natural population decline is increasing in the Altai Territory. In 2022, this figure was 11,667 people. According to preliminary data from Rosstat, as of January 1, 2023, the population of the region decreased to 2,317,522 people. The reason for the population decline is the high mortality rate, which exceeds the birth rate. Over the past 30 years, the Altai Territory has never recorded an excess of fertility over mortality. The last natural population growth was observed in 1990 and amounted to 4,847 people.

The Altai Territory has a certain specificity in the economy of modern Russia, making a certain regional contribution to the development of various sectors. For example, it can be a potential center of agricultural production, supplying the country with environmentally friendly food. Therefore, the early solution of demographic problems in the Altai Territory is important for the development of not only the region, but also the whole country. Improving demographic indicators will make it possible to use the existing potential of the region, which will have a positive impact not only on the region itself, but also on Russia as a whole.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it can be argued that demographic security is not just statistical indicators, but a complex set of interrelated factors affecting the sustainable development of society. The empirical analysis of national security factors requires an integrated approach, including an analysis of socio-economic, political and cultural factors affecting the size and structure of the population of regions and the country as a whole.

A theoretical analysis of the problems of demographic security in the Altai Territory, combined with an analysis of modern regional statistics, allowed us to draw the following conclusions:

1. From 2018 to 2023, a chronic negative trend of population decline was revealed in the Altai Territory, and with each new year the rate of depopulation of the population is increasing.

2. The share of the rural population in the Altai Territory in 2022 amounted to 43.3% of the total population, which exacerbates the difficult demographic situation in the region.

3. There is an imbalance in the number of men and women in the region, which increases significantly with age.

4. In the Altai Territory, compared with Russia as a whole, the aging of the population is proceeding at a higher rate, which increases the overall demographic burden.

5. In the last decade, the birth rate in the Altai Territory has remained below the national average.

6. According to Rosstat, in the Altai Territory from 2022 to 2023, there is a drop in the number of registered marriages and an increase in divorces.

7. The accelerated decrease in the population of the Altai Territory is due to a significant annual migration loss of the population. In the last 10 years, a negative migration balance has been recorded in the region.

Thus, the demographic situation in the Altai Territory differs from the all-Russian trend in a more pronounced outflow of population from rural areas, a decrease in fertility and an increase in mortality. These factors lead to serious socio-economic consequences, threatening the sustainable development of the region.

To solve demographic problems in the Altai Territory, a comprehensive and thoughtful demographic policy is needed aimed at stimulating the birth rate, creating favorable conditions for the life and work of the population, preventing the outflow of young people from the region and creating a more favorable environment for life in rural areas. The basic recommendations for optimizing the demographic situation in the Altai Territory could be: a systematic and comprehensive increase in the socio-economic well-being of residents of the region; the introduction of a new demographic indicator for analysis, such as "healthy life expectancy" to assess the analysis of the quality of life of citizens; the formation of a motivation system for a long and productive socially active life in different age categories citizens; the formation of a new optimal culture of health and a healthy lifestyle.