Living conditions of the population of Transbaikalia and the Far East of Russia as a factor of regional and national identity (2018–2022)

Breslavskii Anatolii Sergeevich PhD in History Leading Scientific Associate, Institute for Mongolian, Buddhist and Tibetan Studies of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 670049, Russia, respublika Buryatiya, g. Ulan-Ude, ul. Sakh'yanovoi, 6, of. 314 breslavsky@imbt.ru Other publications by this author

Zhalsanova Valentina Gurozhapovna ORCID: 0000-0003-0827-6311 PhD in Sociology Leading Scientific Associate, Institute for Mongolian, Buddhist and Tibetan Studies of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 670047, Russia, Republic of the Republic of Buryatia, Ulan-Ude, Sakhyanova str., 6, office 305a valyazhal@list.ru

Taking into account socio-demographic and economic factors in assessing the grounds for building and updating regional and national identity seems to us as necessary as, for example, taking on the role of the educational and educational component in these processes. We have come to these conclusions more than once, in particular, in the framework of research in the Republic of Buryatia ^{[3; 4; 6]}. In the context of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation, it is worth mentioning at least a recent study by Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences P. A. Minakir in 2020, in which he shows how, as a result of the fatigue of the population from unfulfilled promises of drastic changes in living conditions in the Far East, positive expectations of citizens in relation to the "new Eastern economic policy" by 2019 changed their "the sign" turned negative and turned into a political crisis, in particular, in the Khabarovsk Territory ^[8]. In other words, analyzing the grounds for building a regional, ethnic, national identity or, for example, patriotism, one should not neglect economic factors, living conditions of the population and its individual groups.

In assessing the results of our study, we also proceeded from the fact that the socio-economic development of Transbaikalia and the Far East in 2020-2022 occurred not only under the decisive influence of the Covid-19 pandemic and the beginning of a special military operation in Ukraine, but also under the influence of longer processes associated with the ongoing modernization of this region after a decade of acute crisis in 1990-x – early 2000s, - processes during which the same Far East has already faced a number of threats and risks ^[5].

The main part of the research on our collective project is based on data from a questionnaire survey and focus groups (see, for example, ^[12]), while the materials of this article are based on an analysis of a series of statistical data published in the yearbooks "Regions of Russia: socio-economic indicators" with data for 2018-2022. ^{[16; 17; 18; 19; 20]}. In particular, we have taken into account such indicators as natural and migration population growth, life expectancy, unemployment rate, the ratio of per capita income of the population, wages to real incomes of the population.

Turning to their data analysis, let's start with the fact that in 2018-2022. The Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Far Eastern Federal District) as a whole continued to lose its population. In five years, it has decreased by 3.5% or 285.1 thousand people. Moreover, if in 2019, according to official data, the departure amounted to 20 thousand people, then in the first year of the pandemic (2020) – already 159 thousand people, in 2021 – 43.4 thousand people, and in 2022 – 62.7 thousand people. The overall negative dynamics persisted in the vast majority of regions, except Yakutia. Thus, the Kamchatka Territory lost 8.3% of the population in five years, 7.8% – the Jewish Autonomous Region, 6.9% – the Trans–Baikal Territory, 6% - the Sakhalin Region ^{[16, pp. 43-44; 17, pp. 43-44; 20, pp. 43-44]}. It is worth noting here that over the last three inter-census periods, i.e. from 1989 to 2020, only Yakutia (in 2002-2010, 2010-2020) and Buryatia (in 2010-2020) recorded a total population increase between censuses.

The decline in the total population of the region continued to be influenced by natural and migration decline. The annual excess of fertility over mortality was recorded during this period only in Yakutia, in some years – in Buryatia, the Trans-Baikal Territory and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug ^{[16, p. 76; 17, P. 76; 20, P. 76]}. Similar trends in natural and mechanical attrition were also observed over a wider period of the 1990s and 2010s ^{[7, pp. 32-39; 9; 13]}. For example, in the Primorsky Territory, the natural growth rate has remained consistently negative for more than three decades ^{[14, p. 83; 15, P. 72; 20, P. 76]}, although this region stands out among the Far Eastern regions for both infrastructural development and a relatively comfortable climate. At the same time, the same coronavirus pandemic, as statistics show, has made significant negative adjustments to the processes under consideration. In general, in the Far Eastern Federal District, the natural growth rate per 1000 people from 2018 to 2022 had the following values: -1.6, -2.2, -4.8, -7.1 and -4.0, and annually they were less than in Russia as a whole ^{[16, pp. 75-76; 17, pp. 75-76; 20, pp. 75-76]}.

The general negative values in the natural population growth in most of the Far Eastern Federal District, along with the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, had a negative impact on the life expectancy of the population in the regions of the district. The multidirectional dynamics in individual subjects was noticeable until 2020 ^{[16, p. 80; 17, P. 80; 20, P. 80]}. In the first year of the pandemic in Russia (2020), the values of this indicator decreased significantly. And although, for example, between 2021 and 2022, short-term positive dynamics in terms of its values were already noted in all regions of the district, the overall indicators of life expectancy in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District (with the exception of the Sakhalin Region and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug) in 2022 did not have time to return to the indicators of 2018. In addition, as in many years previously ^{[11, p. 38]}, none of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District in this indicator has reached the average Russian level ^{[16, p. 79-80; 17, P. 79-80; 20, p. 79-80]}.

The Far Eastern Federal District was in the last eighth place among the federal districts of the country in this indicator, following the Siberian Federal District in both 2018 and 2022 ^{[16, p. 80; 20, P. 80]}. Moreover, if the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) ranked 32nd in the all–Russian rating for life expectancy in 2018 (approaching the all-Russian indicator), the Republic of Buryatia - 65, then the rest of the regions were in the range from 71 to 85 places that year ^{[16, p. 80]}. By the end of 2022, Yakutia had risen to 26th place, while the rest of the regions, as a result of multidirectional trends, were in the range from 63 to 85 places. The Chukotka Autonomous Okrug remained an outsider in this indicator, despite the overall increase in life expectancy in this region in 2018-2022 ^{[16, p. 80; 20, P. 80]}.

Outbound migration also retained a basic role in reducing the population of the Far Eastern Federal District: from 2018 to 2022, the migration growth rate remained negative in the district, making an attempt to approach zero only in 2021 ^{[16, p. 92; 17, P. 92; 20, P. 92]}. In some regions, positive migration growth was also recorded in some years, however, for example, according to the results of our final review in 2022, it was negative in all subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District. By the way, in 2018 it was positive in only one (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug) out of 11 regions, in 2019 there were four such regions (Republic of Buryatia, Primorsky Krai, Amur Region, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug), in 2020 – again only one (Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), in 2021 – four (Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kamchatka Territory, Khabarovsk Territory, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug) ^{[16, p. 92; 17, P. 92; 20, P. 92]}. Migration in the district as a whole retained the importance of a long–term factor in reducing its population ^{[9; 10, p. 27]}, despite the continued interest in the macroregion from foreign migrants from Central Asian countries, as well as internal migrant shift workers. The partial suspension of economic activity during the lockdown period in 2020 could not but affect the reduction of migrant workers. At the same time, if in 2021 there was a positive balance of migration with foreign countries in almost all regions of the district, then by the end of 2022 it was negative in 10 out of 11 subjects of the district ^{[2, pp. 14-15]}.

The reasons for outbound migration were influenced by a set of factors (the persistence of unemployment, including structural, especially during the lockdown period of 2020, the disparity of real regional incomes, the search by the population for better conditions for employment, education, etc., settlements with more developed housing, engineering, social and household infrastructure, better transport accessibility, more comfortable climatic conditions conditions, moving to relatives, etc.). Let's consider here one of the factors of outbound migration – unemployment. Its level, which increased in most regions of the Far Eastern Federal District during the 2020 pandemic, gradually began to decrease by 2022 ^{[16, p. 165; 17, p. 202-203; 20, p. 162-163]}. At the same time, in 2018, in 10 of the 11 regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, it exceeded the All-Russian indicator ^{[16, p. 165]}. By the end of 2022, the number of such regions had decreased to seven ^{[20, p. 163]}, but unemployment remained one of the most important problems of the district ^{[1, P. 121]}. At the same time, in two republics – Buryatia and Sakha (Yakutia), as well as in the Trans–Baikal Territory, the unemployment rate in 2022 (6.5-8.7%) was much higher than in other regions of the Far Eastern Federal District.

Although the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum mostly decreased in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District from year to year, with the exception, perhaps, of 2019, in most of them (in 8 out of 11) it remained higher than in Russia as a whole ^{[16, pp. 238-239; 17, pp. 278-279; 20, p. 240, 242]}. This was especially noticeable in the Jewish Autonomous Region, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory, in which in fact 1/5 of the population lived below the conditional poverty line in some years, this value remained slightly lower in the Republic (Sakha) Yakutia (15.5-18.6%). And this is while maintaining significant direct federal support for citizens (pensions, various kinds of benefits, lump-sum payments) during the period under review.

At the same time, as official statistics show, the dynamics of the average per capita income of the population in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District as a whole has increased significantly over the past five years (according to our calculations by 37%) ^{[16, pp. 18, 22; 17, pp. 18, 22; 18, pp. 198-199; 19, pp. 198-199; 20, pp. 18, 22]}. It should be noted that by all–Russian standards, this increase in the district, however, was not ahead of schedule: in the country as a whole, it amounted to a comparable 35.4% during this period. Statistical data well illustrate the difference in absolute values of average per capita income in the Far Eastern Federal District regions, associated, as we understand it, with different living conditions in each of them, salary coefficients. However, the increase in these values in 2018-2022 was, according to our calculations, different. If, for example, in the Khabarovsk Territory it was 26.7%, then in the Magadan region it was 57.4%. In absolute terms, the smallest increase in income was recorded in Buryatia (+8.7 thousand rubles), the largest – in Chukotka (+35.6 thousand rubles) and in the Magadan region (+34.2 thousand rubles). At the same time, in 2018 and 2022, the northeastern regions of the Far Eastern Federal District remained the leaders in Russia in terms of per capita income. Thus, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, in which, however, about 50 thousand people lived during this period, occupied the second place in Russia in this indicator both years, the Magadan Region – the fifth, the Sakhalin Region – the sixth, the Kamchatka Territory – 8 (7), the Republic of Sakha Yakutia – 11, while the Khabarovsk and Primorsky Krai – 13 and 15(18) places, Amur Region – 22(20), Jewish Autonomous Region – 52(39), Buryatia – 56(59), Trans-Baikal Territory – 57(36) places ^{[16, p. 199; 20, P. 199]}.

The dynamics of the average monthly salary of employees of organizations in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District grew at a slightly higher rate than the average per capita income during the period under review. According to our calculations, its total increase in the district as a whole amounted to a significant 44.8% in 2018-2022, while in Russia as a whole, this indicator increased, according to our calculations, by almost 50% ^{[16, pp. 18, 22; 17, pp. 240-241; 20, pp. 202-203]}. In other words, even here we do not see any "outstripping rates" of increasing the welfare of the population of the Far Eastern Federal District (in the vast majority of regions), which could be a factor improving the social well-being of the local population during the period under review. Only in two regions (Amur Region, Primorsky Krai) the relative increase in wages over these years exceeded the national figures, but in absolute terms (an increase of 23.5 and 21.3 thousand rubles, respectively) it could hardly be considered impressive. It should be noted that the smallest increase in wages in absolute terms was noted in Buryatia (+17.4 thousand rubles) and the Jewish Autonomous Region (+17.7 thousand rubles), the largest – again in the Magadan Region (+35.8 thousand rubles) and in Chukotka (+41.7 thousand rubles) ^{[16, pp. 18, 22; 17, pp. 240-241; 20, pp. 202-203]}.

High growth rates of the average per capita income of the population of the Far Eastern Federal District, wages in the regions of the district, if you look at it, were quite correlated with the growth of the consumer price index in the relevant subjects of the district. Throughout all five years, the general level of prices for goods and services purchased by the population of the Far Eastern Federal District has only grown, and in some years very significantly ^{[16, p. 1143; 17, p. 1179; 20, P. 1069]}. For example, in 2021 and 2022, the cost of a fixed list of goods and services increased in the whole district, according to official data only, by 7.2 and 11.8%, respectively, compared with previous years ^{[17, p. 1179; 20, p. 1069]}. In 2022, for most regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, the price index was 111-113% compared to 2021, while in 2018 these values remained in the range from 102.7 to 105% ^{[16, p. 1143; 20, p. 1069]}.

In this regard, the real monetary incomes of the population in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, according to statistics, mostly grew and decreased from year to year ^{[16, pp. 192-193; 17, pp. 232-233; 20, pp. 192-193]}, complicating the solution of the tasks of improving the social well-being of the population, its consolidation in the macroregion. For example, in Buryatia and the Jewish Autonomous Region, for four out of five years, the real incomes of the population became less than in the previous year. They did not decrease only in two regions – the Magadan region and Chukotka. In other regions, there was a multidirectional dynamics. At the same time, the lag in the growth rates of real wages, real incomes of Transbaikalians and Far Easterners, including local pensioners, from all-Russian indicators occurred, as before ^{[7, pp. 40-42]}, in the conditions of the declared turn to the East.

Thus, the complex of domestic and foreign policy problems of the country, which it had to solve in 2018-2022, in Transbaikalia and the Far East was complicated by the very contradictory socio-demographic and socio-economic dynamics of the population's life both on the scale of the entire federal district and in the context of most of its constituent regions. It must be recognized that the social well-being of the population of the trans-Baikal and Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation, the attitude of citizens to state political institutions, the formation of patriotism, regional and all-Russian identities in society have probably been influenced by the living conditions in the regions in recent years, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic and due to the complication of the geopolitical situation in the West countries in 2022 On the other hand, it is necessary to take into account longer-term trends in the development of the regions under consideration, which have demonstrated their stability over time. Thus, despite the increasing efforts made by the federal and regional authorities to modernize Transbaikalia and the Far East and consolidate the local population, they were not enough to reverse many stable negative trends. During the period under review, in particular, there was an annual natural and migratory population decline both in the Far Eastern Federal District as a whole and in the vast majority of its regions.

If the annual excess of mortality over fertility, the general decrease in life expectancy, probably form a general disturbing background mainly in the minds of specialists working with relevant data, then, for example, the causes of mortality, the ongoing outbound migration of a seemingly entrenched population, the unemployment rates discussed above, the proportion of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum, contradictory The trends in the growth of real monetary incomes already concern the broader segments of the population of Transbaikalia and the Far East. Whether they have any significant negative impact on the formation of patriotic sentiments, regional and general civil identification of citizens, we expect to understand by analyzing the data of a questionnaire survey, focus groups conducted in three regions of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation in 2023. The results of this work will be published in the near future.