Selective approaches to the definition of mechanisms for the implementation of import substitution policy at the regional level

Elshin Leonid Alekseevich Doctor of Economics Senior researcher at Center for Strategic Assessment and Forecasts of the Institute of Management, Economics and Finance; Kazan Federal University. Professor of the Department of Economics, University of Management "TISBI" 420139, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Ostrovsky str., 23/1 Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru Other publications by this author     Mingazova Yuliya Georgievna PhD in Economics Researcher, Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University 23/6 Karl Marx str., Kazan, 420008, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan C.p@tatar.ru Savushkin Maksim Vladimirovich PhD in Economics Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Management "TISBI" 420111, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Mushtari str., 13 savushkinmv@mail.ru

Mingulov Almaz Minvazykhovich Vice-Rector for Economic Activities, Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University 420008, Russia, Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Kremlevskaya str., 18 C.p@tatar.ru

Introduction.

The increased sanctions pressure on the Russian economy in 2022 has re-actualized the issue of finding optimal solutions aimed at localizing the risks of economic development in conditions of limited transnational supply chains. In this regard, today, in the space of scientific research, work in this field has increasingly begun to appear. At the same time, it should be noted that they are not limited to the Russian "contour", this area is actively being worked out abroad. They became particularly relevant, mainly, as mentioned above, as part of the sanctions attacks on the national economic system of the 2022 model, as well as in the context of the coronavirus pandemic that unfolded in 2019-2020, which entailed serious restrictions in the field of foreign economic relations.

Among modern Russian researchers actively exploring this issue, it is necessary to highlight the works of Shavtikova L.M., Geriev M.M., Seitova A.B., Levchenko A.V., Botasheva T.A. ^[1], Poltoradneva N. L., V. I. Razumov ^[2], Lyavina M. Yu. ^[3], Vorotnikova I. L., Muravyov M. V. ^[4], Stroeva V. V., Chueva S. V., Tikhonova A. I. ^[5], Izutova O. V. ^[6], Ivanova L. V., Samoilova A.V. ^[7], Parfinenko T. V., Suvorova L. A. ^[8] and others.

Modern foreign scientists also take an equally active position in the search for optimal solutions to ensure the sustainable development of economic systems in the context of systemic transformations, expressed, in particular, in limiting foreign trade relations. These include Kwon J. ^[9], Mukherjee S. ^[10], de la Poza E., Barykin S.E. ^{[11, 12]}, He L., Cheng Y., Su X. ^[13], 14. Lassala C., Apetrei A., Sapena J. ^[14] and others.

Research material and methods

It should be noted that the vast majority of studies devoted to the issues of import substitution and ensuring the technological sovereignty of national economic systems in the context of localization of transnational trade relations focus on the macro level. Meanwhile, the regional level of research is no less important from the point of view of finding optimal solutions in the field of "setting up" an adaptive, effective policy for replacing supplies of goods and services from abroad. Given the rather differentiated structural framework of the regions' foreign trade relations, the peculiarities of their adaptation to the perturbations in the field of import localization at the macro level will have a somewhat unique character. In this regard, it seems extremely important to focus on the meso-research level in the system of building a methodology for the study of sustainable development of economic systems in conditions of limited supplies of imports of goods and services. This research "focus" will allow not only to identify the most vulnerable positions of the subjects of the Russian Federation in the context of imported commodity groups, but also to identify possible threats to their regional development, taking into account the emerging foreign policy environment. Guided by this research doctrine, further, on the example of the subjects of the Volga Federal District, an assessment and analysis of trends in the field of foreign trade relations of the regions are presented, which forms the basis for the development of public administration mechanisms aimed at reducing the risks of their sustainable development in a new reality.

Results and their discussion

Before focusing on the issues of dependence of the studied subjects of the Russian Federation on imports of final and intermediate consumption goods, it is advisable to conduct a general analysis of foreign economic relations at the macro level. According to customs statistics, the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation in 2021 amounted to 785 billion US dollars and increased by 38.2% compared to 2020. At the same time, exports increased by 46.1% and amounted to 491 billion 580 million US dollars, imports increased by 26.8% to 293 billion. 420 million US dollars (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Dynamics of exports and imports of the Russian Federation (billion dollars) Source: according to ^[21]

The trade balance of the Russian Federation for 2021, as in previous years, was positive and amounted to 198 billion rubles. 160 million US dollars. Thus, for the period from 2017 to 2021, exports grew at a faster pace than imports – 172% versus 161% (Table 1).

Table 1 - Trade Turnover of the Russian Federation (billion US dollars)

Source: according to ^[21]

The main trading partners of the Russian Federation were non–CIS countries, their share in trade turnover in 2021 amounted to 87.8%, including 86.9% in exports and 89.3% in imports. For comparison, similar values in 2017 were 87.6%, 86.6% and 89.2%, respectively

The largest trading partners of the regions of the Russian Federation in 2021 were: China (13.8%); the Netherlands (8.6%); Germany (6.0%); Turkey (5.4%); Belarus (4.6%); the United Kingdom (4.5%); Italy (3.9%); Kazakhstan (3.8%); the United States (3.6%); the Republic of Korea, Poland (3.4%, respectively); Japan (2.2%); France and Finland (2.0%, respectively); India (1.9%); Belgium (1.8%); Ukraine (1.7%); Brazil and Uzbekistan (by 1.1%, respectively); Slovakia (1.0%).

For imports - China (24.8%); Germany (9.3%); United States (5.8%); Belarus (5.3%); Republic of Korea (4.4%); France (4.2%); Italy (4.1%); Japan (3.1%); Kazakhstan (2.4%); Turkey (2.2%); Poland (2.0%); Vietnam (1.7%); United Kingdom, India and the Netherlands (1.5% each, respectively); Ukraine (1.4%); Czech Republic, Finland and Spain (1.2% each, respectively); Switzerland (1.1%). Unfriendly countries accounted for slightly more than half of the district's imports in 2021 – 51.3% (Table 2).

Table 2 - Trade of the Russian Federation with unfriendly countries in 2021

	The share of unfriendly countries in the volume of imports,%	The volume of imports from unfriendly countries, millions of dollars.	The volume of imports from unfriendly countries, as a% of the total	The share of unfriendly countries in the volume of exports,%	The volume of exports from unfriendly countries, millions of dollars.	The volume of exports from unfriendly countries, as a% of the total	The ratio of exports to imports,%
Russian Federation	51,3	150588,9	100	55,8	274522,8	100	Nota Bene About Bank details Partners Contact Information Private policy   For authors Agreements Author's area   Our Services Translation of articles Publishing Services Library   Other How to write an article? Journals in the list of the Higher Attestation Commission Mobile app   Our sites Aurora group s.r.o. © 1998 – 2024 Nota Bene. Publishing Technologies. NB-Media Ltd.