Koroleva L.P., Tanyakina O.A. Threat assessment of tax safety of the Russian Federation by indicators of tax revenues of the consolidated budget

Abstract: The increase of tax revenues by the end of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 is often interpreted as a positive result of the depreciation of the ruble and the proof of the efficiency of the tax system and tax administration. The growth of tax revenues will allow the state to expand the expenditure side of the budget. However, the growth of the absolute values of tax revenue caused by the volatility of exchange rate and inflation increase of tax bases may not provide the necessary level of tax safety of the state, which actualizes the threat assessment in the tax area The article have shown signs of increasing threat to the tax safety based on the analysis of dynamics of indicators of the growth rates and structure of tax revenues of the Russian Federation consolidated budget in the period from 2003 to 2014. It appears in the declining share of tax revenues in the value of the budget revenues by increasing of its nominal values. A stepwise decrease in the proportion of tax revenues since 2009 compared with the period from 2005 to 2008, and a higher rate of growth (decline) of tax revenues compared to the same indicator of GDP in periods of growth (decline), is demonstrated by using the method of graphical representation of the results of the study. A comparison of the dynamics of the growth rate and the share of tax revenues by type allow to making the conclusion about its current and future role in the formation of a profitable part of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation. It is concluded that there are a high chance of a significant drop in tax revenues to the budget at the end of 2015, following the 2014 crisis, and the need to find potential sources to increase tax revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation. It includes the enactment of progressive scale rates of personal income tax and the improvement of taxation of the extractive industries.

Keywords: