Sustainable development of the Arctic region: main theoretical aspects

Donskikh Dmitrii Valerevich Postgraduate Student, Department of Comparative Politics, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6 dimitridonsk@mail.ru Melnikov Andrei Olegovich Postgraduate Student, Department of Comparative Politics, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia 117198, Russia, Moscow, Miklukho-Maklaya str., 6 dimitridonsk@mail.ru

Lyui Karina Evgenevna Student, Faculty of Economics and Management, Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University) named after I.M. Gubkin 65 Leninsky Ave., Moscow, 119991, Russia dimitridonsk@mail.ru

Introduction

To date, the concept of "sustainable development" is applied in a special way in the Arctic region, one of the two mandates of the Arctic Council is devoted to this topic. It is based on the ecological reservation of the development concept, which stipulates that economic development in the region is permissible only if it does not involve permanent environmental costs ^[1].

Despite the fact that the issues of governance, politics and social development in the Arctic are overwhelmingly related to economic development, it can be argued that this issue is poorly studied in scientific discourse, although not due to lack of effort. The development of the Arctic is fraught with difficulties: there is a clear contradiction between industrial activity and strict environmental protection, as well as between the ideas of social services and indigenous peoples about the quality of life of the latter. The population here is small, lives in large territories and therefore it is difficult for them to provide public services. There is a shortage of labor and capital, infrastructure is poorly developed and its construction is expensive.

The object of research is the sustainable development of the Arctic region. The subject of the study is the theoretical basis of sustainable development in relation to the Arctic region.

In connection with the highlighted problems of the region's development, this study aims to identify key barriers to the sustainable development of the Arctic for the region as a whole and the Russian Arctic territories in particular.

To achieve the goal, a number of tasks have been completed:

1) The key features of sustainable development applicable to the Arctic are highlighted;

2) The activity of the Arctic Council as a fundamental regulator of the sustainable development of the region is analyzed;

3) Common problems of sustainable development of the Arctic are highlighted;

4) The specific problems of the development of the Russian Arctic are highlighted.

Results

To begin with, let's define clear geographical boundaries of the region. Eight states have territories within the Arctic. Their national jurisdictions and international law regulate land use in the territories surrounding the Arctic Ocean and its waters ^[3]. Table 1 shows the territorial boundaries of the Arctic.

Table 1 - Composition of the Arctic territories ^[4].

More than four million people live in the Arctic region, their distribution is shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Population of the Arctic by country, 1900-2019, thousand people ^[5].

Throughout the entire foreseeable period, Russia was in the lead in terms of the number of inhabitants of the Arctic, whose Arctic population increased 8.6 times over the period 1900-2019. Thanks to such a concentration of human resources, primarily engaged in mining, Russia has become a leader in terms of GRP produced in the Arctic, while being inferior to other countries in relative economic indicators. The share of Russia in the population of the world Arctic ranged from 21.6% in 1900 to 57.5% in 1989, and by 2019 it had decreased to 44.8%. The Arctic population of the United States, which ranks second in number, has increased 11.5 times over these 120 years. Other countries showed moderate growth ranging from 1.9 to 4.6 times, because they did not have such a high potential for internal migration. Canada and Denmark have the smallest share in the Arctic population, despite their vast territories.

Economic development in the Arctic is ambivalent and can be conditionally divided into the development of industry and local crafts. Public discussion is focused on the first: oil and gas, large-scale mining, shipping and infrastructure connectivity ^{[15; 16]}. There is a sufficient amount of scientific research on these topics ^{[17; 18; 19]}, although they often affect industrial development and sales markets more than the sustainable development of the Arctic. At the same time, both the development of Arctic resources and the study of this process are largely subject to booms and recessions of interest. 

The concept of sustainable development in the Arctic today is the basis for the formation of state strategies of many states ^[20]. However, a number of questions arise. For example, if the development of natural resources is the basis of the Arctic economy, can it ever become truly sustainable? What happens when two elements – sustainability and economic development – are in conflict?  Is it possible to ensure sustainable economic development without clear, even strict environmental standards? Balanced answers to these questions have been achieved only in a few countries; in the Arctic, the scales are tilted towards sustainability, since regulatory legal acts are mainly aimed at preserving the natural conditions of the region. Efforts to promote entrepreneurship, small business development, or the knowledge economy remain largely abstract. Thus, the Finnish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council focused on establishing links between the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for the period up to 2030 (SDGs) and the Arctic context ^[2].

The Arctic Council was mentioned above as one of the fundamental bodies regulating the activities of countries in the Arctic region. The work of the Arctic Council, as a rule, is divided into thematic areas, all of which are more or less related to sustainable development:

1) "Economic assessments" include analysis and joint monitoring of economic trends and activities in the Arctic, including the promotion of sustainable and diverse economic development, investment and policy.

2) "Educational Opportunities" offer innovative technologies for the accumulation of knowledge and the development of skills necessary to maintain the existence of local communities in a dynamically changing region.

3) "Heritage and culture of the Arctic communities" allows you to expand and deepen knowledge about the peoples, cultures, traditional way of life, languages and values of the region. To support and glorify indigenous languages, traditional way of life and customs. 

4) "Human Health" offers the exchange of information, assessments and dissemination of innovative solutions that can support public health systems and the provision of medical services, with a focus on projects that reduce mortality and disability from environmental risk factors, suicide and infectious and chronic diseases.

5) "Infrastructure" promotes the provision of information to justify responsible and sustainable long-term investments in all forms of Arctic infrastructure, taking into account the current needs of communities as well as the changing environment through independent efforts and in coordination with other subsidiary bodies and task forces.

6) "Reducing/eliminating inequality" aims to strengthen and promote the adoption of reasonable strategies to eliminate inequalities based on age, gender, physical condition, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.

7) "Science and research for sustainable development" It includes promoting the effective use of research institutes in the Arctic region in the interests of sustainable development, including through a system of academic exchange and joint research in the Arctic.

8) "Sustainable business development" stimulates economic development, including in new and developing sectors, and assesses its potential benefits, including job creation and promotion of local culture and products.

9) "Sustainable Energy" promotes responsible and sustainable management, use and production of energy, as well as encourages the development of renewable energy sources.

10) "Transport connectivity" It is aimed at developing a sustainable transport infrastructure that offers opportunities for the efficient movement of people and goods, which is of particular importance for remote and isolated Arctic communities.

11) "Water Supply and Sanitation Services" proposes to strengthen the participation of local communities and businesses in the sustainable development of water supply, sanitation and waste recycling, taking into account the unique engineering problems and environmental risks faced by the region.

It should be noted that these areas of work of the Arctic Council are implemented within the framework of the Strategic Plan for 2021-2030, which focuses on the development of the Arctic as “a region of peace, stability and constructive cooperation, which is a dynamic, prosperous, sustainable and safe home for all its inhabitants, including indigenous peoples, and where their rights and well-being are respected.” It is in this message that the main task of sustainable development of the Arctic region lies – to balance the political interests of the countries that are part of it, to make the region dynamically economically developing, without infringing on the rights of indigenous peoples and businesses. This seems to be a difficult task for a number of reasons. Let's start with the climate component of the issue.

In the Arctic, climate change is one of the most serious problems. The temperature in the Arctic region is rising at least twice as fast as the global average. The retreating ice sheet offers new economic opportunities, as natural resources such as oil and gas become increasingly available, new sea routes appear, and the shipping season lengthens on traditional ones. Thus, there has been a significant increase in traffic on the Northern Sea Route in recent years. In 2021 alone, more than 180 million tons of goods were transported along this route, which is almost 70 percent more than in the previous year (Figure 3). Major technology firms have also shown interest in the new economic opportunities found in the Arctic, launching initiatives to lay fiber-optic cables across the Arctic Ocean and building new data centers that benefit from the cold climate ^[6].

Figure 3 - Volume of Russian cargo transportation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, thousand tons

As you know, the Arctic is of crucial importance in terms of climate impact, since the changes taking place in the Arctic region have global consequences. According to some estimates, the Greenland ice sheet will disappear by the year 3000, which will lead to an increase in the water level in the world by 7 meters ^[21]. This will greatly affect coastal regions around the world, leading to the relocation of millions of people. Studies have also shown that changes in the Arctic climate correlate with extreme weather events in other localities, cause melting of ice shelves and further acceleration of global warming ^[7].

For most large TNCs, these consequences mean a rapid increase in the risks of losses and disruptions in supply chains. The number of private climate initiatives has increased dramatically over the past few years. Sustainable development is turning from a choice into a necessity. At the same time, the scale of climate change and the political impasse in its solution have led to a growing recognition at the national and international levels of the need to involve the private sector in climate policy.

An equally difficult issue in achieving the goals of the Arctic Council is the unresolved infrastructure deficit in the Arctic. This is especially evident in the extractive sector, where public-private partnership in infrastructure development has been the most characteristic feature in recent decades ^{[22; 23]}.

There are serious practical problems hindering the implementation of major infrastructure projects in the Arctic. Due to long distances, harsh weather conditions and often initially quite poor infrastructure, the Arctic is a logistically and technologically very difficult working environment. This year alone, six major investment banks actively involved in hydrocarbon production projects have announced in their new climate strategies that they will no longer finance new offshore oil projects in the Arctic, while states, on the contrary, cancel and reduce restrictions aimed at protecting the environment and promoting sustainability and announce large state-owned investments in new Arctic oil and gas projects. Thus, the existing PPP relations in the region are being destroyed and hinder private participation in infrastructure development. The volume of resources required for sustainable infrastructure development in the region is growing.

In addition to the infrastructure for new sources of fossil fuels, it is also important to take into account the energy aspect of the infrastructure development of the region. From wind, solar and offshore turbines to improving battery efficiency, the Arctic is an ideal testing ground for new technologies and the mass introduction of clean energy.

Thus, the two main obstacles to the global sustainable development of the Arctic are climate restrictions that create serious barriers to environmentally friendly projects and logistical difficulties, overcoming which requires significant financial costs and active participation of both the state and the corporate sector, which is not observed today.

Development of the Russian Arctic territory

In recent years, Russia has been investing huge resources in the development of its Arctic territory. In the latest Arctic Strategy for the period up to 2035, effective resource management and the urgency of eliminating political and economic threats are called priority interests in the region ^[24]. Having the longest Arctic coastline, as well as the most densely populated and industrially developed Arctic region of all the northern states and a significant amount of natural resources in the North, Russia has the potential necessary to strengthen its presence in the Arctic ^[8].

Russia's growing attention to the Arctic is manifested in concrete actions, such as the development of infrastructure in the region, including the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, the construction of icebreakers, the opening of oil and gas pipelines, the opening of the Arctic to tourism, the promotion of international cooperation for the development of the region and actions aimed at creating a positive image of the country, such as the installation of Russian the flag on the seabed of the North Pole in 2007.

As for the threats under consideration, Russia is increasingly concerned about the consequences of climate change in the Arctic, especially in connection with the melting of permafrost, which could endanger the population and infrastructure in the North ^[9].

An equally important risk is a significant reduction in the population of the Arctic. The population dynamics of individual Arctic regions of Russia is shown in the table below ^[10].

Table 3 Population dynamics of individual Arctic subjects of the Russian Federation (in thousands)

Due to the low population density, there is an objective problem of uneven economic development. One of Russia's priorities in the Arctic is to expand and strengthen the economic, infrastructural and technological development of the region. The pioneer in this issue today is Chukotka. As part of the response to threats, the development of the Northern Sea Route and cooperation with other countries, especially with China, in oil and gas and logistics projects in the region are being promoted ^[11].

In terms of political threats, the most important for Russia is the increase in conflict in the Arctic, in connection with which work has begun on strengthening the military presence of Russian forces, including nuclear forces, in the Arctic ^[12].

Conclusion

The world powers are beginning to actively explore the Arctic to use its subsoil and influence the geopolitical situation. It seems possible to reduce the analysis above to several theses:

1) The Arctic region is both a frontier of sustainable economic development and a challenge to it due to the presence of a number of restrictions for development as such;

2)    Among the most serious limitations of the sustainable development of the Arctic, one can note the difficult climatic conditions and low infrastructure development, as well as the actual rejection of private investors' development projects.;

3) The Russian Arctic territories have great potential for resource utilization and further sustainable development, but also face serious problems in the field of infrastructure, demography, economic imbalances and growing conflict.

4) Despite these limitations, the Arctic is becoming one of the key areas of Russia's regional development in the coming decades.

Based on the findings, it is proved that the Arctic region plays a major geo-economic role in modern conditions and determines the policy of the largest world powers in the field of economics.